# Evaluation of Sequence-Learning Models for Large-Commercial-Building Load Forecasting

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## Abstract

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## 1. Introduction

- illustrating a deep-learning approach to model large-commercial-building electrical-energy usage as alternative to conventional modelling techniques;
- presenting an experimental case study using the chosen deep learning techniques enabling reliable forecasting of building energy use;
- analysis of the results in terms of accuracy metrics, both absolute and relative, which provide a way for replicable result towards other related research.

## 2. Related Work

- more computational resources are currently easily available that allow testing and validation of the designed approaches on better-quality public datasets;
- open-source libraries and software packages have been developed that implement advanced statistical-learning techniques with good documentation for research outside the core mathematical and computer-science fields of expertise;
- customized development of new deep-learning architectures through joint work in teams with computing, algorithm, and domain expertise (energy in this case), which has yielded suitable and good results for the challenges discussed in this article.

_{2}concentrations. Two types of sequence models using long short-term memory units were tested in [8] in conjunction with an electrical-energy modelling application. As a salient discovery, the authors showed that performance metrics were improved when working on aggregated collected data that require the consideration of long-term dependencies. The validated model was subsequently leveraged for missing value imputation on input time data. Refererence [9] discussed the application of autoencoders and generative networks as a deep-learning alternative to conventional feature engineering in learning models for electrical-energy load forecasting. A method based on Support Vector Regression (SVR) was presented by [10].

## 3. Electrical-Energy Modelling Using Sequence Model RNNs

#### 3.1. RNN Implementation with LSTM

- input gate $(i)$—level of cell state update;
- layer update $(g)$—add information to cell state;
- forget gate $(f)$—remove information from cell state;
- output gate $(o)$—effect of cell state on output.

#### 3.2. Benchmarking Datasets

## 4. Experiment Evaluation for Building-Energy Time-Series Forecasting

## 5. Conclusions

## Author Contributions

## Funding

## Conflicts of Interest

## Abbreviations

ADAM | Adaptive Moment Estimation |

ARIMA | Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average |

BPTT | Back-Propagation Through Time |

CV (RMSE) | Coefficient of Variation of RMSE |

LSTM | Long Short-Term Memory |

DL | Deep Learning |

GRU | Gated Recurrent Unit |

MAPE | Mean Absolute Percentage Error |

MSE | Mean Squared Error |

RMSE | Root Mean Squared Error |

RNN | Recurrent Neural Network |

RTRL | Real-Time Recurrent Learning |

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**Table 1.**Summary of accuracy metrics for RNN LSTM model forecasting: Chicago. Note: MSE, Mean Squared Error; RMSE, Root MSE; CV, Coefficient of Variation; MAPE, Mean Absolute Percentage Error.

C-0 | C-1 | C-2 | C-3 | C-4 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Time(s) | 75 | 93 | 143 | 247 | 330 |

MSE | 0.6295 | 0.6132 | 0.5553 | 0.7486 | 0.9555 |

RMSE | 0.7934 | 0.7831 | 0.7452 | 0.8652 | 0.9775 |

CV(RMSE)(%) | 0.98 | 0.97 | 0.92 | 1.07 | 1.2 |

MAPE(%) | 0.5623 | 0.5091 | 0.4945 | 0.5535 | 0.8177 |

Z-0 | Z-1 | Z-2 | Z-3 | Z-4 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Time(s) | 76 | 94 | 150 | 275 | 355 |

MSE | 2.3846 | 2.1732 | 2.0506 | 2.2506 | 2.034 |

RMSE | 1.5442 | 1.4742 | 1.432 | 1.5002 | 1.5107 |

CV(RMSE)(%) | 1.66 | 1.59 | 1.58 | 1.61 | 1.63 |

MAPE(%) | 0.9197 | 0.9008 | 0.828 | 0.9958 | 3.4684 |

C2-0 | C2-1 | C2-2 | C2-3 | C2-4 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Time(s) | 72 | 91 | 137 | 280 | 347 |

MSE | 0.8013 | 0.7801 | 0.7163 | 0.7626 | 0.8413 |

RMSE | 0.8952 | 0.8832 | 0.8464 | 0.8733 | 0.9172 |

CV(RMSE)(%) | 1.63 | 1.6 | 1.53 | 1.57 | 1.65 |

MAPE(%) | 1.0005 | 0.9439 | 0.8982 | 0.9736 | 1.019 |

NY-0 | NY-1 | NY-2 | NY-3 | NY-4 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Time(s) | 79 | 102 | 145 | 294 | 346 |

MSE | 5.4433 | 5.4012 | 4.7778 | 5.1203 | 5.5522 |

RMSE | 2.3309 | 2.3241 | 2.1858 | 2.2628 | 2.3563 |

CV(RMSE)(%) | 1.75 | 1.73 | 1.7 | 1.72 | 1.78 |

MAPE(%) | 1.0409 | 1.004 | 0.9602 | 0.9813 | 1.1073 |

Min | Max | $\mathit{\mu}$ | $\mathit{\sigma}$ | s | k | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

CV (RMSE) | 0.92 | 1.78 | 1.4935 | 0.2873 | −1.0846 | 2.5502 |

MAPE | 0.4945 | 3.4684 | 0.9989 | 0.6108 | 3.4661 | 14.8790 |

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**MDPI and ACS Style**

Nichiforov, C.; Stamatescu, G.; Stamatescu, I.; Făgărăşan, I.
Evaluation of Sequence-Learning Models for Large-Commercial-Building Load Forecasting. *Information* **2019**, *10*, 189.
https://doi.org/10.3390/info10060189

**AMA Style**

Nichiforov C, Stamatescu G, Stamatescu I, Făgărăşan I.
Evaluation of Sequence-Learning Models for Large-Commercial-Building Load Forecasting. *Information*. 2019; 10(6):189.
https://doi.org/10.3390/info10060189

**Chicago/Turabian Style**

Nichiforov, Cristina, Grigore Stamatescu, Iulia Stamatescu, and Ioana Făgărăşan.
2019. "Evaluation of Sequence-Learning Models for Large-Commercial-Building Load Forecasting" *Information* 10, no. 6: 189.
https://doi.org/10.3390/info10060189