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Article

CMIP5-Based Projection of Decadal and Seasonal Sea Surface Temperature Variations in East China Shelf Seas

1
School of Marine Science and Technology, Tianjin University, 92 WeiJin RD, Nankai District, Tianjin 300072, China
2
School of Oceanography, Shanghai Jiaotong University, 800 DongChuan RD, Minhang District, Shanghai 200240, China
*
Authors to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Kyung-Ae Park
J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2021, 9(4), 367; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse9040367
Received: 31 January 2021 / Revised: 22 March 2021 / Accepted: 23 March 2021 / Published: 30 March 2021
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Sea Surface Temperature: From Observation to Applications)
The East China Shelf Seas, comprising the Bohai Sea, the Yellow Sea, and the shelf region of East China Sea, play significant roles among the shelf seas of the Western North Pacific Ocean. The projection of sea surface temperature (SST) changes in these regions is a hot research topic in marine science. However, this is a very difficult task due to the lack of available long-term projection data. Recently, with the high development of simulation technology based on numerical models, the model intercomparison projects, e.g., Phase 5 of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), have become important ways of understanding climate changes. CMIP5 provides multiple models that can be used to estimate SST changes by 2100 under different representative concentration pathways (RCPs). This paper developed a CMIP5-based SST investigation framework for the projection of decadal and seasonal variation of SST in East China Shelf Seas by 2100. Since the simulation results of CMIP5 models may have degrees of errors, this paper uses hydrological observation data from World Ocean Atlas 2018 (WOA18) for model validation and correction. This paper selects seven representative ones including ACCESS1.3, CCSM4, FIO-ESM, CESM1-CAM5, CMCC-CMS, NorESM1-ME, and Max Planck Institute Earth System Model of medium resolution (MPI-ESM-MR). The decadal and seasonal SST changes in the next 100 years (2030, 2060, 2090) are investigated by comparing with the present analysis in 2010. The experimental results demonstrate that SST will increase significantly by 2100: the decadal SST will increase by about 1.55 °C, while the seasonal SST will increase by 1.03–1.95 °C. View Full-Text
Keywords: decadal and seasonal SST variation; East China Shelf Seas; CMIP5; WOA18 decadal and seasonal SST variation; East China Shelf Seas; CMIP5; WOA18
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MDPI and ACS Style

Lu, H.; Xie, C.; Zhang, C.; Zhai, J. CMIP5-Based Projection of Decadal and Seasonal Sea Surface Temperature Variations in East China Shelf Seas. J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2021, 9, 367. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse9040367

AMA Style

Lu H, Xie C, Zhang C, Zhai J. CMIP5-Based Projection of Decadal and Seasonal Sea Surface Temperature Variations in East China Shelf Seas. Journal of Marine Science and Engineering. 2021; 9(4):367. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse9040367

Chicago/Turabian Style

Lu, Huiqiang, Chuan Xie, Cuicui Zhang, and Jingsheng Zhai. 2021. "CMIP5-Based Projection of Decadal and Seasonal Sea Surface Temperature Variations in East China Shelf Seas" Journal of Marine Science and Engineering 9, no. 4: 367. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse9040367

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