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Open AccessArticle

Ice Forecasting in the Next-Generation Great Lakes Operational Forecast System (GLOFS)

1
Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Ann Arbor, MI 48108, USA
2
Department of Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48104, USA
3
Cooperative Institute for Great Lakes Research, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48108, USA
4
Coast Survey Development Laboratory, Office of Coast Survey, National Ocean Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring, MD 20910, USA
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2018, 6(4), 123; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse6040123
Received: 27 September 2018 / Revised: 16 October 2018 / Accepted: 18 October 2018 / Published: 21 October 2018
Ice Cover in the Great Lakes has significant impacts on regional weather, economy, lake ecology, and human safety. However, forecast guidance for the lakes is largely focused on the ice-free season and associated state variables (currents, water temperatures, etc.) A coupled lake-ice model is proposed with potential to provide valuable information to stakeholders and society at large about the current and near-future state of Great Lakes Ice. The model is run for three of the five Great Lakes for prior years and the modeled ice cover is compared to observations via several skill metrics. Model hindcasts of ice conditions reveal reasonable simulation of year-to-year variability of ice extent, ice season duration, and spatial distribution, though some years appear to be prone to higher error. This modeling framework will serve as the basis for NOAA’s next-generation Great Lakes Operational Forecast System (GLOFS); a set of 3-D lake circulation forecast modeling systems which provides forecast guidance out to 120 h. View Full-Text
Keywords: ice modeling; operational forecast; FVCOM; CICE; hydrodynamic modeling; Great Lakes ice modeling; operational forecast; FVCOM; CICE; hydrodynamic modeling; Great Lakes
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Anderson, E.J.; Fujisaki-Manome, A.; Kessler, J.; Lang, G.A.; Chu, P.Y.; Kelley, J.G.; Chen, Y.; Wang, J. Ice Forecasting in the Next-Generation Great Lakes Operational Forecast System (GLOFS). J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2018, 6, 123.

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