Risk-Coupling Analysis and Control Mechanism of Port Dangerous Goods Transportation System

With the integration of the global economy and the rapid development of port logistics, the port dangerous goods transportation system faces complex risk-coupling problems, and the probability of accidents keeps climbing. However, the existing research on the system risk-coupling mechanism and dynamic control mechanism is still insufficient, and there is an urgent need to construct a scientific risk analysis and control model. This study takes the port dangerous goods transportation system as the object, based on the four-factor framework of “personnel-machine-environment-management,” uses the N-K model to quantify the degree of risk coupling, analyzes the dynamic evolution mechanism of risk under the action of a single factor, and uses Dufferin’s oscillation and bifurcation response equation to reveal the interaction between the system’s internal defenses and the external influences. It is found that the coupled risk value of personnel–machine factors is the highest, and the sudden change in system state is characterized by a sudden jump and lag. The system stability can be significantly improved by enhancing internal damping control and optimizing external excitation regulation. This study provides a quantitative tool for the risk assessment of dangerous goods transportation in ports and theoretical support for the development of the “damping-excitation” synergistic control strategy, which is of great practical significance for the improvement of the port safety management system.