Prediction of the Epidemic Peak of Coronavirus Disease in Japan, 2020
Graduate School of System Informatics, Kobe University, 1-1 Rokkodai-cho, Nada-ku, Kobe 657-8501, Japan
J. Clin. Med. 2020, 9(3), 789; https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm9030789
Received: 24 February 2020
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Revised: 10 March 2020
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Accepted: 10 March 2020
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Published: 13 March 2020
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Real Time Clinical and Epidemiological Investigations on Novel Coronavirus - Part I)
The first case of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Japan was reported on 15 January 2020 and the number of reported cases has increased day by day. The purpose of this study is to give a prediction of the epidemic peak for COVID-19 in Japan by using the real-time data from 15 January to 29 February 2020. Taking into account the uncertainty due to the incomplete identification of infective population, we apply the well-known SEIR compartmental model for the prediction. By using a least-square-based method with Poisson noise, we estimate that the basic reproduction number for the epidemic in Japan is ( CI, – ) and the epidemic peak could possibly reach the early-middle summer. In addition, we obtain the following epidemiological insights: (1) the essential epidemic size is less likely to be affected by the rate of identification of the actual infective population; (2) the intervention has a positive effect on the delay of the epidemic peak; (3) intervention over a relatively long period is needed to effectively reduce the final epidemic size.
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MDPI and ACS Style
Kuniya, T. Prediction of the Epidemic Peak of Coronavirus Disease in Japan, 2020. J. Clin. Med. 2020, 9, 789. https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm9030789
AMA Style
Kuniya T. Prediction of the Epidemic Peak of Coronavirus Disease in Japan, 2020. Journal of Clinical Medicine. 2020; 9(3):789. https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm9030789
Chicago/Turabian StyleKuniya, Toshikazu. 2020. "Prediction of the Epidemic Peak of Coronavirus Disease in Japan, 2020" Journal of Clinical Medicine 9, no. 3: 789. https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm9030789
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