Next Article in Journal
Radiosynoviorthesis after Surgery in the Treatment of Patients with Ankle Pigmented Villonodular Synovitis: A Case Series
Next Article in Special Issue
Assessing the Impact of Reduced Travel on Exportation Dynamics of Novel Coronavirus Infection (COVID-19)
Previous Article in Journal
Choroidal Vascularity Index: An In-Depth Analysis of This Novel Optical Coherence Tomography Parameter
Previous Article in Special Issue
Communicating the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)
Open AccessArticle

Short-term Forecasts of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Guangdong and Zhejiang, China: February 13–23, 2020

1
Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA 30302, USA
2
Department of Mathematics, Center for Computational Science, Tulane University, New Orleans, LA 70118, USA
3
Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, ON K1A 0K9, Canada
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
J. Clin. Med. 2020, 9(2), 596; https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm9020596
Received: 14 February 2020 / Revised: 18 February 2020 / Accepted: 19 February 2020 / Published: 22 February 2020
The ongoing COVID-19 epidemic continues to spread within and outside of China, despite several social distancing measures implemented by the Chinese government. Limited epidemiological data are available, and recent changes in case definition and reporting further complicate our understanding of the impact of the epidemic, particularly in the epidemic’s epicenter. Here we use previously validated phenomenological models to generate short-term forecasts of cumulative reported cases in Guangdong and Zhejiang, China. Using daily reported cumulative case data up until 13 February 2020 from the National Health Commission of China, we report 5- and 10-day ahead forecasts of cumulative case reports. Specifically, we generate forecasts using a generalized logistic growth model, the Richards growth model, and a sub-epidemic wave model, which have each been previously used to forecast outbreaks due to different infectious diseases. Forecasts from each of the models suggest the outbreaks may be nearing extinction in both Guangdong and Zhejiang; however, the sub-epidemic model predictions also include the potential for further sustained transmission, particularly in Zhejiang. Our 10-day forecasts across the three models predict an additional 65–81 cases (upper bounds: 169–507) in Guangdong and an additional 44–354 (upper bounds: 141–875) cases in Zhejiang by February 23, 2020. In the best-case scenario, current data suggest that transmission in both provinces is slowing down. View Full-Text
Keywords: COVID-19; coronavirus; China; real-time forecasts; phenomenological models; sub-epidemic model COVID-19; coronavirus; China; real-time forecasts; phenomenological models; sub-epidemic model
Show Figures

Figure 1

MDPI and ACS Style

Roosa, K.; Lee, Y.; Luo, R.; Kirpich, A.; Rothenberg, R.; Hyman, J.M.; Yan, P.; Chowell, G. Short-term Forecasts of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Guangdong and Zhejiang, China: February 13–23, 2020. J. Clin. Med. 2020, 9, 596.

Show more citation formats Show less citations formats
Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Article Access Map by Country/Region

1
Search more from Scilit
 
Search
Back to TopTop