Next Article in Journal
Efficacy of Low-Dose Radioiodine Ablation in Low- and Intermediate-Risk Differentiated Thyroid Cancer: A Retrospective Comparative Analysis
Next Article in Special Issue
Short-term Forecasts of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Guangdong and Zhejiang, China: February 13–23, 2020
Previous Article in Journal
Relationships Among and Predictive Values of Obesity, Inflammation Markers, and Disease Severity in Pediatric Patients with Obstructive Sleep Apnea Before and After Adenotonsillectomy
Previous Article in Special Issue
Characteristics of and Public Health Responses to the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Outbreak in China
Open AccessFeature PaperEditorial

Communicating the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)

1
Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan
2
Osaka Institute of Public Health, Nakamichi 1-3-69, Higashinari, Osaka 537-0025, Japan
3
Core Research for Evolutional Science and Technology (CREST), Japan Science and Technology Agency, Honcho 4-1-8, Kawaguchi, Saitama 332-0012, Japan
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
J. Clin. Med. 2020, 9(2), 580; https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm9020580
Received: 15 February 2020 / Accepted: 17 February 2020 / Published: 21 February 2020
To understand the severity of infection for a given disease, it is common epidemiological practice to estimate the case fatality risk, defined as the risk of death among cases. However, there are three technical obstacles that should be addressed to appropriately measure this risk. First, division of the cumulative number of deaths by that of cases tends to underestimate the actual risk because deaths that will occur have not yet observed, and so the delay in time from illness onset to death must be addressed. Second, the observed dataset of reported cases represents only a proportion of all infected individuals and there can be a substantial number of asymptomatic and mildly infected individuals who are never diagnosed. Third, ascertainment bias and risk of death among all those infected would be smaller when estimated using shorter virus detection windows and less sensitive diagnostic laboratory tests. In the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic, health authorities must cope with the uncertainty in the risk of death from COVID-19, and high-risk individuals should be identified using approaches that can address the abovementioned three problems. Although COVID-19 involves mostly mild infections among the majority of the general population, the risk of death among young adults is higher than that of seasonal influenza, and elderly with underlying comorbidities require additional care. View Full-Text
Keywords: fatality; virulence; virus; statistical estimation; emerging infectious diseases fatality; virulence; virus; statistical estimation; emerging infectious diseases
MDPI and ACS Style

Kobayashi, T.; Jung, S.-M.; Linton, N.M.; Kinoshita, R.; Hayashi, K.; Miyama, T.; Anzai, A.; Yang, Y.; Yuan, B.; Akhmetzhanov, A.R.; Suzuki, A.; Nishiura, H. Communicating the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19). J. Clin. Med. 2020, 9, 580.

Show more citation formats Show less citations formats
Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Article Access Map by Country/Region

1
Search more from Scilit
 
Search
Back to TopTop