Communicating the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Graduating from Simple Division
3. Infection Fatality Risk (IFR): All Infected Individuals as the Denominator
4. Additional Calibrations of the Ascertainment Rate
5. Heterogeneous risk of Death
6. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Locations | Unadjusted cCFR as of 14 February 2020 [1] | Adjusted cCFR [6] | 95% Confidence Intervals of cCFR [6] |
---|---|---|---|
Hubei | 2.5% | 18% | 11–81% |
Outside mainland China | 0.4% | 1–5% | 1–85% |
Sensitivity | Virus Detection Window (Days) | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 Day | 3 Days | 5 Days | ||||
q (%) | IFR (%) | q (%) | IFR (%) | q (%) | IFR (%) | |
30% | 0.2 (0.2, 0.3) | 0.02 (0.02, 0.02) | 0.7 (0.6, 0.8) | 0.06 (0.05, 0.07) | 1.1 (0.9, 1.4) | 0.10 (0.08, 0.12) |
50% | 0.4 (0.3, 0.5) | 0.03 (0.03, 0.04) | 1.1 (0.9, 1.5) | 0.10 (0.08, 0.13) | 1.9 (1.5, 2.5) | 0.16 (0.13, 0.22) |
80% | 0.6 (0.4, 0.9) | 0.05 (0.04, 0.08) | 1.8 (1.3, 2.6) | 0.16 (0.12, 0.23) | 3.1 (2.2, 4.4) | 0.27 (0.19, 0.38) |
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Kobayashi, T.; Jung, S.-m.; Linton, N.M.; Kinoshita, R.; Hayashi, K.; Miyama, T.; Anzai, A.; Yang, Y.; Yuan, B.; Akhmetzhanov, A.R.; et al. Communicating the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19). J. Clin. Med. 2020, 9, 580. https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm9020580
Kobayashi T, Jung S-m, Linton NM, Kinoshita R, Hayashi K, Miyama T, Anzai A, Yang Y, Yuan B, Akhmetzhanov AR, et al. Communicating the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19). Journal of Clinical Medicine. 2020; 9(2):580. https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm9020580
Chicago/Turabian StyleKobayashi, Tetsuro, Sung-mok Jung, Natalie M. Linton, Ryo Kinoshita, Katsuma Hayashi, Takeshi Miyama, Asami Anzai, Yichi Yang, Baoyin Yuan, Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov, and et al. 2020. "Communicating the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)" Journal of Clinical Medicine 9, no. 2: 580. https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm9020580