# Communicating the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)

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## Abstract

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## 1. Introduction

## 2. Graduating from Simple Division

## 3. Infection Fatality Risk (IFR): All Infected Individuals as the Denominator

## 4. Additional Calibrations of the Ascertainment Rate

## 5. Heterogeneous risk of Death

_{i}be the risk of death of an individual i, and write the logit model in the form

## 6. Conclusions

## Author Contributions

## Funding

## Conflicts of Interest

## References

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**Table 1.**Confirmed case fatality risk (cCFR) with and without adjustment of the time from illness onset to death.

Locations | Unadjusted cCFR as of 14 February 2020 [1] | Adjusted cCFR [6] | 95% Confidence Intervals of cCFR [6] |
---|---|---|---|

Hubei | 2.5% | 18% | 11–81% |

Outside mainland China | 0.4% | 1–5% | 1–85% |

**Table 2.**Ascertainment rate and infection fatality risk estimates estimated from Japanese evacuees from Wuhan City, China.

Sensitivity | Virus Detection Window (Days) | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

1 Day | 3 Days | 5 Days | ||||

q (%) | IFR (%) | q (%) | IFR (%) | q (%) | IFR (%) | |

30% | 0.2 (0.2, 0.3) | 0.02 (0.02, 0.02) | 0.7 (0.6, 0.8) | 0.06 (0.05, 0.07) | 1.1 (0.9, 1.4) | 0.10 (0.08, 0.12) |

50% | 0.4 (0.3, 0.5) | 0.03 (0.03, 0.04) | 1.1 (0.9, 1.5) | 0.10 (0.08, 0.13) | 1.9 (1.5, 2.5) | 0.16 (0.13, 0.22) |

80% | 0.6 (0.4, 0.9) | 0.05 (0.04, 0.08) | 1.8 (1.3, 2.6) | 0.16 (0.12, 0.23) | 3.1 (2.2, 4.4) | 0.27 (0.19, 0.38) |

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## Share and Cite

**MDPI and ACS Style**

Kobayashi, T.; Jung, S.-m.; Linton, N.M.; Kinoshita, R.; Hayashi, K.; Miyama, T.; Anzai, A.; Yang, Y.; Yuan, B.; Akhmetzhanov, A.R.;
et al. Communicating the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19). *J. Clin. Med.* **2020**, *9*, 580.
https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm9020580

**AMA Style**

Kobayashi T, Jung S-m, Linton NM, Kinoshita R, Hayashi K, Miyama T, Anzai A, Yang Y, Yuan B, Akhmetzhanov AR,
et al. Communicating the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19). *Journal of Clinical Medicine*. 2020; 9(2):580.
https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm9020580

**Chicago/Turabian Style**

Kobayashi, Tetsuro, Sung-mok Jung, Natalie M. Linton, Ryo Kinoshita, Katsuma Hayashi, Takeshi Miyama, Asami Anzai, Yichi Yang, Baoyin Yuan, Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov,
and et al. 2020. "Communicating the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)" *Journal of Clinical Medicine* 9, no. 2: 580.
https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm9020580