The Extent of Transmission of Novel Coronavirus in Wuhan, China, 2020
by
Hiroshi Nishiura 1,2,*
, Sung-mok Jung 1, Natalie M. Linton 1, Ryo Kinoshita 1, Yichi Yang 1, Katsuma Hayashi 1, Tetsuro Kobayashi 1, Baoyin Yuan 1 and Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov 1
Hiroshi Nishiura 1,2,*, Sung-mok Jung 1, Natalie M. Linton 1, Ryo Kinoshita 1, Yichi Yang 1, Katsuma Hayashi 1, Tetsuro Kobayashi 1, Baoyin Yuan 1 and Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov 1
1
Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan
2
CREST, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Honcho 4-1-8, Kawaguchi, Saitama 332-0012, Japan
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
J. Clin. Med. 2020, 9(2), 330; https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm9020330
Received: 22 January 2020 / Accepted: 23 January 2020 / Published: 24 January 2020
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Real Time Clinical and Epidemiological Investigations on Novel Coronavirus)
A cluster of pneumonia cases linked to a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was reported by China in late December 2019. Reported case incidence has now reached the hundreds, but this is likely an underestimate. As of 24 January 2020, with reports of thirteen exportation events, we estimate the cumulative incidence in China at 5502 cases (95% confidence interval: 3027, 9057). The most plausible number of infections is in the order of thousands, rather than hundreds, and there is a strong indication that untraced exposures other than the one in the epidemiologically linked seafood market in Wuhan have occurred.
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Keywords:
epidemiology; foreigner; travel; migration; importation; emerging infectious diseases
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited
MDPI and ACS Style
Nishiura, H.; Jung, S.-M.; Linton, N.M.; Kinoshita, R.; Yang, Y.; Hayashi, K.; Kobayashi, T.; Yuan, B.; Akhmetzhanov, A.R. The Extent of Transmission of Novel Coronavirus in Wuhan, China, 2020. J. Clin. Med. 2020, 9, 330.
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