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Article

Maximization of Open Hospital Capacity under Shortage of SARS-CoV-2 Vaccines—An Open Access, Stochastic Simulation Tool

1
Experimental Trauma Surgery, Justus Liebig University of Giessen, 35392 Giessen, Germany
2
Department of Trauma, Hand, and Reconstructive Surgery, University Hospital of Giessen, 35385 Giessen, Germany
3
Covid-19 Emergency Taskforce, University Hospital of Giessen, 35385 Giessen, Germany
4
TUM School of Management, Technical University of Munich, 80333 Munich, Germany
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editors: Ralph A. Tripp, Steven B. Bradfute and Scott Anthony
Vaccines 2021, 9(6), 546; https://doi.org/10.3390/vaccines9060546
Received: 13 April 2021 / Revised: 15 May 2021 / Accepted: 17 May 2021 / Published: 22 May 2021
(This article belongs to the Collection COVID-19 Vaccines and Vaccination)
Motive. The Covid-19 pandemic has led to the novel situation that hospitals must prioritize staff for a vaccine rollout while there is acute shortage of the vaccine. In spite of the availability of guidelines from state agencies, there is partial confusion about what an optimal rollout plan is. This study investigates effects in a hospital model under different rollout schemes. Methods. A simulation model is implemented in VBA, and is studied for parameter variation in a predefined hospital setting. The implemented code is available as open access supplement. Main results. A rollout scheme assigning vaccine doses to staff primarily by staff’s pathogen exposure maximizes the predicted open hospital capacity when compared to a rollout based on a purely hierarchical prioritization. The effect increases under resource scarcity and greater disease activity. Nursing staff benefits most from an exposure focused rollout. Conclusions. The model employs SARS-CoV-2 parameters; nonetheless, effects observable in the model are transferable to other infectious diseases. Necessary future prioritization plans need to consider pathogen characteristics and social factors. View Full-Text
Keywords: SARS-CoV-2 vaccine shortage; hospital vaccine rollout; hospital management SARS-CoV-2 vaccine shortage; hospital vaccine rollout; hospital management
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    Doi: 10.5281/zenodo.4589332
    Link: http://www.DOI.org/10.5281/zenodo.4589332
    Description: Supplement: macro code Deposited also for open access as macro.vba and as macro.xlsm at doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4589332
MDPI and ACS Style

Bosbach, W.A.; Heinrich, M.; Kolisch, R.; Heiss, C. Maximization of Open Hospital Capacity under Shortage of SARS-CoV-2 Vaccines—An Open Access, Stochastic Simulation Tool. Vaccines 2021, 9, 546. https://doi.org/10.3390/vaccines9060546

AMA Style

Bosbach WA, Heinrich M, Kolisch R, Heiss C. Maximization of Open Hospital Capacity under Shortage of SARS-CoV-2 Vaccines—An Open Access, Stochastic Simulation Tool. Vaccines. 2021; 9(6):546. https://doi.org/10.3390/vaccines9060546

Chicago/Turabian Style

Bosbach, Wolfram A.; Heinrich, Martin; Kolisch, Rainer; Heiss, Christian. 2021. "Maximization of Open Hospital Capacity under Shortage of SARS-CoV-2 Vaccines—An Open Access, Stochastic Simulation Tool" Vaccines 9, no. 6: 546. https://doi.org/10.3390/vaccines9060546

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