Evaluating Cybersecurity Measures for Smart Grids Under Uncertainty: A Picture Fuzzy SWARA–CODAS Approach

Smart grid operators face escalating cyber threats and tight resource constraints, demanding the transparent, defensible prioritization of security controls. This paper asks how to select cybersecurity controls for smart grids while retaining picture fuzzy evidence throughout and supporting policy-sensitive “what-if” analyses. We propose a hybrid Picture Fuzzy Stepwise Weight Assessment Ratio Analysis (SWARA) and Combinative Distance-based Assessment (CODAS) framework that carries picture fuzzy evidence end-to-end over a domain-specific cost/benefit criteria system and a relative-assessment matrix, complemented by multi-scenario sensitivity analysis. Applied to ten prominent solutions across twenty-nine sub-criteria in four dimensions, the model highlights Performance as the most influential main criterion; at the sub-criterion level, the decisive factors are updating against new threats, threat-detection capability, and policy-customization flexibility; and Zero Trust Architecture emerges as the best overall alternative, with rankings stable under varied weighting scenarios. A managerial takeaway is that foundation controls (e.g., OT-integrated monitoring and ICS-aware detection) consistently remain near the top, while purely deceptive or access-centric options rank lower in this context. The framework contributes an end-to-end picture fuzzy risk-assessment model for smart grid cybersecurity and suggests future work on larger expert panels, cross-utility datasets, and dynamic, periodically refreshed assessments.