Engineering Applications Using Probabilistic Aftershock Hazard Analyses: Aftershock Hazard Map and Load Combination of Aftershocks and Tsunamis
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Probabilistic Aftershock Hazard Analysis Model
2.1. Aftershock Definition
2.2. Probabilistic Aftershock Occurrence Model
2.2.1. Reasenberg and Jones Model
2.2.2. Proposed Probabilistic Aftershock Occurrence Model
2.3. Model Parameters
2.3.1. Target Aftershocks
2.3.2. Relationships between Parameters
3. Aftershock Hazard Analysis Method
3.1. Aftershock Hazard Analysis Equation
3.2. Verification of the Proposed Method
3.2.1. Comparison of the Aftershock Hazard Analysis and Observations
3.2.2. Sensitivity Analysis
3.2.3. Short-Term Versus Mid-Term
4. Engineering Applications
4.1. Aftershock Hazard Map for Recovery Activities
4.1.1. The 1923 Kanto Earthquake
4.1.2. Aftershock Hazard Map
4.1.3. Use of the Aftershock Hazard Map
4.2. Load Combination of Aftershock and Tsunami for Tsunami-Resistant Designs
4.2.1. Load Combination Framework
4.2.2. Analytical Model and Conditions
4.2.3. Analytical Method
4.3. Results
4.3.1. Analytical Results
4.3.2. Load Combination Factor for Tsunami-resistant Designs
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Main Shock | Aftershock Parameters | Reference | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mm | GMT | Longitude | Latitude | N | b(90) | p | D1 | |
9.0 | 20110311 | 142.9 | 38.1 | 3123 | 0.99 | 0.86 | 1.3 | |
7.0 | 20080507 | 141.6 | 36.2 | 27 | 0.91 | 0.84 | 1.2 | |
8.0 | 20030925 | 144.1 | 41.8 | 212 | 0.84 | 1.02 | 0.9 | |
7.3 | 19951203 | 150.1 | 44.6 | 329 | 0.89 | 0.97 | 0.3 | |
7.2 | 19950106 | 142.3 | 40.2 | 26 | 0.7 | 0.76 | 1.0 | |
7.6 | 19941228 | 143.7 | 40.4 | 191 | 0.8 | 0.93 | 1.1 | |
6.9 | 19920718 | 143.4 | 39.4 | 100 | 0.8 | 1.09 | 0.5 | |
7.1 | 19891101 | 143.1 | 39.9 | 34 | 0.74 | 0.94 | 0.8 | |
6.7 | 19870206 | 141.9 | 36.9 | NA | 0.88 | 0.91 | 1.1 | [25] |
7.1 | 19840806 | 132.2 | 32.4 | NA | 1.03 | 1.00 | 2.3 | [25] |
7.0 | 19820723 | 142.0 | 36.2 | 49 | 0.83 | 0.98 | 0.8 | |
7.4 | 19780612 | 142.2 | 38.2 | 30 | 0.69 | 0.86 | 1.1 | |
7.9 | 19680516 | 143.6 | 40.7 | NA | 0.90 | 1.00 | 0.4 | [26] |
7.5 | 19640616 | 139.2 | 38.4 | NA | 1.00 | 1.40 | 1.4 | [26] |
7.0 | 19610226 | 131.9 | 31.6 | NA | 0.75 | 1.00 | 1.7 | [26] |
6.8 | 19610112 | 142.3 | 36.0 | NA | 0.80 | 1.30 | 0.2 | [26] |
7.5 | 19600320 | 143.5 | 39.8 | NA | 0.85 | 1.30 | 0.8 | [26] |
8.1 | 19520304 | 143.9 | 42.2 | NA | 0.80 | 1.10 | 1.1 | [26] |
8.1 | 19461220 | 135.6 | 33.0 | NA | 0.70 | 1.00 | 0.9 | [26] |
8.0 | 19441207 | 136.2 | 33.7 | NA | 0.70 | 1.10 | 1.3 | [26] |
7.7 | 19381105 | 141.6 | 37.1 | NA | 0.65 | 1.20 | 0.1 | [26] |
7.1 | 19380523 | 141.4 | 36.7 | NA | 0.80 | 1.10 | 1.2 | [26] |
8.3 | 19330302 | 144.7 | 39.1 | NA | 1.10 | 1.40 | 1.6 | [26] |
Site (K-NET) | Longitude | Latitude | AVS30 (m/s) |
---|---|---|---|
MYG010 | 141.28 | 38.43 | 262 |
MYG004 | 141.02 | 38.73 | 430 |
FKS010 | 141.00 | 37.23 | 409 |
IBR013 | 140.49 | 36.16 | 265 |
Sites | Variable | 2011 Tohoku | 1896 Sanriku | 1933 Sanriku | Type | Note | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mean | COV | Mean | COV | Mean | COV | ||||
AOM012 | PGA0–30 (cm/s2) | 83 | 1.61 | 68.2 | 1.37 | 11.7 | 1.13 | Lognormal | μ |
185 | 1.35 | 140 | 1.25 | 22.2 | 1.05 | Lognormal | μ + σ | ||
PGA30–60 (cm/s2) | 62 | 1.73 | 53.5 | 1.46 | 9.5 | 1.20 | Lognormal | μ | |
135 | 1.50 | 107 | 1.35 | 17.8 | 1.11 | Lognormal | μ + σ | ||
PGA60–90 (cm/s2) | 53 | 1.81 | 46.3 | 1.52 | 8.4 | 1.25 | Lognormal | μ | |
113 | 1.59 | 91.8 | 1.41 | 15.5 | 1.16 | Lognormal | μ + σ | ||
PGAmain (cm/s2) | 176 | - | 238 | - | 93 | - | - | Median | |
h (m) | 9.6 | 0.42 | 3.7 | 0.42 | 1.2 | 0.42 | Lognormal | ||
R (kN) | - | 0.2 | - | 0.2 | - | 0.2 | Lognormal | ||
IWT001 | PGA0–30 (cm/s2) | 106 | 1.58 | 81.3 | 1.36 | 14.8 | 1.12 | Lognormal | μ |
234 | 1.28 | 166 | 1.22 | 28.2 | 1.05 | Lognormal | μ + σ | ||
PGA30–60 (cm/s2) | 79 | 1.71 | 63.8 | 1.45 | 12.1 | 1.19 | Lognormal | μ | |
171 | 1.43 | 128 | 1.31 | 22.5 | 1.11 | Lognormal | μ + σ | ||
PGA60–90 (cm/s2) | 67 | 1.79 | 55.1 | 1.51 | 10.6 | 1.25 | Lognormal | μ | |
143 | 1.52 | 109 | 1.38 | 19.7 | 1.16 | Lognormal | μ + σ | ||
PGAmain (cm/s2) | 215 | - | 283 | - | 118 | - | - | Median | |
h (m) | 10.3 | 0.42 | 4.1 | 0.42 | 1.3 | 0.42 | Lognormal | ||
R (kN) | - | 0.2 | - | 0.2 | - | 0.2 | Lognormal | ||
IWT002 | PGA0–30 (cm/s2) | 125 | 1.52 | 76.7 | 1.34 | 16.6 | 1.11 | Lognormal | μ |
274 | 1.21 | 157 | 1.21 | 31.6 | 1.03 | Lognormal | μ + σ | ||
PGA30–60 (cm/s2) | 94 | 1.65 | 60.2 | 1.42 | 13.5 | 1.18 | Lognormal | μ | |
201 | 1.35 | 120 | 1.31 | 25.3 | 1.10 | Lognormal | μ + σ | ||
PGA60–90 (cm/s2) | 79 | 1.73 | 52.1 | 1.48 | 11.9 | 1.23 | Lognormal | μ | |
168 | 1.44 | 103 | 1.37 | 22 | 1.14 | Lognormal | μ + σ | ||
PGAmain (cm/s2) | 270 | - | 262 | - | 126 | - | - | Median | |
h (m) | 11.3 | 0.42 | 4.3 | 0.42 | 1.4 | 0.42 | Lognormal | ||
R (kN) | - | 0.2 | - | 0.2 | - | 0.2 | Lognormal | ||
IWT003 | PGA0–30 (cm/s2) | 146 | 1.52 | 78.8 | 1.33 | 19.3 | 1.09 | Lognormal | μ |
322 | 1.20 | 161 | 1.21 | 36.6 | 1.02 | Lognormal | μ + σ | ||
PGA30–60 (cm/s2) | 108 | 1.65 | 61.9 | 1.42 | 15.7 | 1.16 | Lognormal | μ | |
235 | 1.35 | 123 | 1.30 | 29.3 | 1.08 | Lognormal | μ + σ | ||
PGA60–90 (cm/s2) | 92 | 1.74 | 53.5 | 1.48 | 13.8 | 1.21 | Lognormal | μ | |
197 | 1.44 | 106 | 1.36 | 25.6 | 1.13 | Lognormal | μ + σ | ||
PGAmain (cm/s2) | 336 | - | 268 | - | 141 | - | - | Median | |
h (m) | 12.4 | 0.42 | 4.7 | 0.42 | 1.5 | 0.42 | Lognormal | ||
R (kN) | - | 0.2 | - | 0.2 | - | 0.2 | Lognormal | ||
IWT005 | PGA0–30 (cm/s2) | 167 | 1.38 | 69.8 | 1.31 | 21.5 | 1.07 | Lognormal | μ |
358 | 1.07 | 142.2 | 1.21 | 40.7 | 0.99 | Lognormal | μ + σ | ||
PGA30–60 (cm/s2) | 125 | 1.51 | 54.9 | 1.40 | 17.5 | 1.14 | Lognormal | μ | |
265 | 1.21 | 109.3 | 1.30 | 32.6 | 1.06 | Lognormal | μ + σ | ||
PGA60–90 (cm/s2) | 106 | 1.59 | 47.5 | 1.46 | 15.4 | 1.19 | Lognormal | μ | |
223 | 1.30 | 93.7 | 1.36 | 28.5 | 1.11 | Lognormal | μ + σ | ||
PGAmain (cm/s2) | 469 | - | 234 | - | 148 | - | - | Median | |
h (m) | 15.0 | 0.42 | 5.0 | 0.42 | 1.6 | 0.42 | Lognormal | ||
R (kN) | - | 0.2 | - | 0.2 | - | 0.2 | Lognormal | ||
IWT007 | PGA0–30 (cm/s2) | 174 | 1.35 | 52.7 | 1.27 | 20 | 1.06 | Lognormal | μ |
373 | 1.05 | 107 | 1.20 | 37.9 | 0.99 | Lognormal | μ + σ | ||
PGA30–60 (cm/s2) | 130 | 1.49 | 41.5 | 1.36 | 16.3 | 1.13 | Lognormal | μ | |
276 | 1.18 | 82.5 | 1.29 | 30.4 | 1.05 | Lognormal | μ + σ | ||
PGA60–90 (cm/s2) | 111 | 1.54 | 35.9 | 1.42 | 14.3 | 1.18 | Lognormal | μ | |
232 | 1.27 | 70.8 | 1.35 | 26.5 | 1.10 | Lognormal | μ + σ | ||
PGAmain (cm/s2) | 533 | - | 179 | - | 134 | - | - | Median | |
h (m) | 18.1 | 0.42 | 4.8 | 0.42 | 1.5 | 0.42 | Lognormal | ||
R (kN) | - | 0.2 | - | 0.2 | - | 0.2 | Lognormal |
Magnitude of Main Shock (Mm) | Conditional Target Reliability | Note | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Index = 0 | Index = 0.5 | ||||||
9.0 | 0.98 | 0.14 | 0.88 | 0.95 | 0.15 | 1.26 | |
0.98 | 0.41 | 0.88 | 0.95 | 0.49 | 1.25 | ||
8.5 | 0.98 | 0.11 | 0.86 | 0.95 | 0.15 | 1.25 | |
0.98 | 0.25 | 0.86 | 0.95 | 0.47 | 1.24 | ||
8.1 | 0.98 | 0.06 | 0.87 | 0.95 | 0.10 | 1.19 | |
0.98 | 0.11 | 0.87 | 0.95 | 0.24 | 1.08 |
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Choi, B.; Nishida, A.; Itoi, T.; Takada, T. Engineering Applications Using Probabilistic Aftershock Hazard Analyses: Aftershock Hazard Map and Load Combination of Aftershocks and Tsunamis. Geosciences 2018, 8, 1. https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences8010001
Choi B, Nishida A, Itoi T, Takada T. Engineering Applications Using Probabilistic Aftershock Hazard Analyses: Aftershock Hazard Map and Load Combination of Aftershocks and Tsunamis. Geosciences. 2018; 8(1):1. https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences8010001
Chicago/Turabian StyleChoi, Byunghyun, Akemi Nishida, Tatsuya Itoi, and Tsuyoshi Takada. 2018. "Engineering Applications Using Probabilistic Aftershock Hazard Analyses: Aftershock Hazard Map and Load Combination of Aftershocks and Tsunamis" Geosciences 8, no. 1: 1. https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences8010001