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Volume 15
Issue 6
10.3390/geosciences15060198
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Article

Twenty-Five Years After the Chi-Chi Earthquake in the Light of Natural Time Analysis

by
Panayiotis A. Varotsos
1,*,
Nicholas V. Sarlis
1,
Efthimios S. Skordas
1,
Qinghua Huang
2,
Jann-Yenq Liu
3,
Masashi Kamogawa
4 and
Toshiyasu Nagao
5
1
Section of Condensed Matter Physics and Solid Earth Physics Institute, Department of Physics , National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Panepistimiopolis, Zografos, 157 84 Athens, Greece
2
Department of Geophysics, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
3
Center for Astronautical Physics and Engineering, National Central University, No. 300, Zhongda Rd., Zhongli District, Taoyuan City 320317, Taiwan
4
Natural Disaster Research Section, Global Center for Asian and Regional Research, University of Shizuoka, 3-6-1, Takajo, Aoi-Ku, Shizuoka 420-0839, Japan
5
Institute of Oceanic Research and Development, Tokai University, 3-20-1, Orido, Shimizu-ku, Shizuoka 424-0902, Japan
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Geosciences 2025, 15(6), 198; https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences15060198 (registering DOI)
Submission received: 22 March 2025 / Revised: 9 May 2025 / Accepted: 22 May 2025 / Published: 24 May 2025
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Editorial Board Members’ Collection Series: “New Horizons in Geophysics: From Theory to Applications”)
Versions Notes

Abstract

Almost two years after the devastating 1999 MW7.6 Chi-Chi earthquake, a new concept of time termed natural time (NT) was introduced in 2001 that reveals unique dynamic features hidden behind the time series of complex systems. In particular, NT analysis enables the study of the dynamical evolution of a complex system and identifies when the system enters a critical stage. Since the observed earthquake scaling laws indicate the existence of phenomena closely associated with the proximity of the system to a critical point, here we apply NT analysis to seismicity that preceded the 3 April 2024 MW7.4 Hualien earthquake. We find that in the beginning of September 2023 the order parameter of seismicity exhibited a clearly detectable minimum. Such a minimum demonstrates that seismic electric signal (SES) activity initiated which comprises several low-frequency transient changes of the electric field of the Earth preceding major earthquakes.
Keywords: Taiwan; natural time analysis; Chi-Chi earthquake; Hualien earthquake; earthquake prediction Taiwan; natural time analysis; Chi-Chi earthquake; Hualien earthquake; earthquake prediction

Share and Cite

MDPI and ACS Style

Varotsos, P.A.; Sarlis, N.V.; Skordas, E.S.; Huang, Q.; Liu, J.-Y.; Kamogawa, M.; Nagao, T. Twenty-Five Years After the Chi-Chi Earthquake in the Light of Natural Time Analysis. Geosciences 2025, 15, 198. https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences15060198

AMA Style

Varotsos PA, Sarlis NV, Skordas ES, Huang Q, Liu J-Y, Kamogawa M, Nagao T. Twenty-Five Years After the Chi-Chi Earthquake in the Light of Natural Time Analysis. Geosciences. 2025; 15(6):198. https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences15060198

Chicago/Turabian Style

Varotsos, Panayiotis A., Nicholas V. Sarlis, Efthimios S. Skordas, Qinghua Huang, Jann-Yenq Liu, Masashi Kamogawa, and Toshiyasu Nagao. 2025. "Twenty-Five Years After the Chi-Chi Earthquake in the Light of Natural Time Analysis" Geosciences 15, no. 6: 198. https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences15060198

APA Style

Varotsos, P. A., Sarlis, N. V., Skordas, E. S., Huang, Q., Liu, J.-Y., Kamogawa, M., & Nagao, T. (2025). Twenty-Five Years After the Chi-Chi Earthquake in the Light of Natural Time Analysis. Geosciences, 15(6), 198. https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences15060198

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