Predicting Suitable Areas for African Swine Fever Outbreaks in Wild Boars in South Korea and Their Implications for Managing High-Risk Pig Farms
Abstract
:Simple Summary
Abstract
1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Status of ASF Outbreaks and Dataset Construction
2.2. Environmental Variables
2.3. Data Analysis
2.3.1. Predicting Suitable Areas for ASF Outbreaks
2.3.2. Predicting the Shortest Path for an ASF Outbreaks
2.3.3. Pig Farm Density
3. Results
3.1. Suitable Areas for ASF Outbreaks
3.2. Shortest-Path of ASF Outbreak
3.3. Density of Pig Farms
3.4. Pig Farms at High-Risk of ASF Outbreak
4. Discussion
4.1. Suitable Areas for ASF Outbreaks in Wild Boars
4.2. Shortest-Path for ASF Outbreaks in Wild Boars
4.3. Pig Farming Sectors at High Risk of ASF Spillover and Its Management Implications
5. Conclusions
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Category | Variable | Abbreviation | Source |
---|---|---|---|
Forest environment | Forest type | Frtp | Forest Type Map (1:5000) from Korea Forest Service (accessed on 24 November 2021) https://www.forest.go.kr/ |
Age classes of trees | Agcl | ||
Diameter at breast height of trees | Dbht | ||
Crown density | Crde | ||
Topographic | Elevation | Elev | Digital Elevation Model from National Geographic Information Institute of the Republic of Korea (accessed on 5 November 2021) http://data.nsdi.go.kr/ |
Slope | Slop | ||
Aspect | Aspe | ||
Water | Water | Stream Order Map from Water Resources Management Information System of the Republic of Korea (accessed on 23 November 2021) http://www.wamis.go.kr/ | |
Anthropogenic | Settlement | Setl | Subdivision Land Cover Map from Ministry of Environment of the Republic of Korea (accessed on 25 November 2021) https://egis.me.go.kr/ |
Plow | Plow | ||
Road | Road | Road map of Korea from Ministry of Land of the Republic of Korea (accessed on 21 November 2021) https://www.its.go.kr/ |
Level of Suitability Value | Area (km2) at Suitability Levels | Percentage of Area in Each Suitability Level out of the Total Area (16,469.1 km2) | No. of ASF OutBreaks at Suitability Level | Percentage of ASF Outbreaks at Suitability Level out of the Total ASF Outbreaks (252 Cases) | No. ASF OutBreaks/km2 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Very high (0.8–1) | 15.8 | 0.1 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.127 |
High (0.6–0.8) | 760.7 | 4.6 | 59 | 23.4 | 0.078 |
Medium (0.4–0.6) | 4047.7 | 24.6 | 112 | 44.4 | 0.028 |
Low (0.2–0.4) | 7482.4 | 45.4 | 73 | 29.0 | 0.010 |
Very low (0–0.2) | 4162.5 | 25.3 | 6 | 2.4 | 0.001 |
Total | 16,469.1 | 100 | 252 | 100 | 0.015 |
Distance from Shortest-Path | Level of Shortest-Path BC | Area Size (km2) | No. of ASF Outbreaks | No. of ASF Outbreaks/km2 |
---|---|---|---|---|
1.8 km | Low (0.007~0.026) | 3329 | 87 | 0.026 |
Medium (0.026~0.064) | 1457 | 43 | 0.030 | |
High (0.064~0.149) | 505 | 37 | 0.073 | |
1.8~3.6 km | Low (0.007~0.026) | 3373 | 26 | 0.008 |
Medium (0.026~0.064) | 1312 | 34 | 0.026 | |
High (0.064~0.149) | 394 | 6 | 0.015 |
Local Region | Pig Farm Sector | Locality | No. of Pig Farms | No. of Heads | Distance from the Shortest Path (km) | Overlap Area * (km2) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gyeonggi-do (GG) | GG-1 | Yeoncheon-gun | 10 | 17,555 | 5.8 | |
GG-2 | Pocheon-si | 28 | 82,880 | 5.9 | 0.11 | |
GG-3 | Pocheon-si | 14 | 14,735 | 8.6 | 0.56 | |
GG-4 | Dongducheon-si ** | 13 | 24,140 | 1.2 | 0.01 | |
GG-5 | Yangju-si | 13 | 25,720 | 5.0 | ||
GG-6 * | Yangpyeong-gun | 10 | 21,710 | 0.0 | 0.49 | |
GG-7 | Icheon-si | 10 | 17,340 | 6.0 | 0.00 | |
GG-8 * | Cheoin-gu ** | 13 | 9932 | 0.0 | 0.38 | |
GG-9 | Icheon-si ** | 12 | 33,795 | 15.5 | ||
GG-10 | Yeoju-si | 4 | 6024 | 11.5 | ||
GG-11 | Icheon-si | 8 | 14,900 | 10.9 | 0.00 | |
GG-12 | Cheoin-gu ** | 216 | 364,060 | 0.6 | 1.93 | |
GG-13 | Pyeongtaek-si ** | 10 | 6373 | 11.9 | ||
GG-14 * | Anseong-si | 12 | 17,700 | 0.0 | 0.02 | |
GG-15 | Pyeongtaek-si ** | 21 | 48,546 | 14.8 | ||
Gangwon-do (GW) | GW-1 | Cheorwon-gun ** | 10 | 36,414 | 25.5 | |
Chungcheongbuk-do (CB) | CB-1 | Goesan-gun | 9 | 14,490 | 0.0 | |
CB-2 | Cheongwon-gun ** | 5 | 10,195 | 3.9 | ||
Chungcheongnam-do (CN) | CN-1 | Dangjin-si | 12 | 16,785 | 12.5 | |
CN-2 | Dongnam-gu ** | 8 | 25,830 | 3.8 | 0.08 | |
CN-3 | Asan-si | 2 | 3200 | 16.6 | ||
CN-4 | Dangjin-si ** | 36 | 72,427 | 6.7 | ||
CN-5 | Asan-si ** | 2 | 6000 | 12.7 | ||
CN-6 | Yesan-gun | 17 | 36,004 | 11.6 | ||
CN-7 * | Hongseong-gun ** | 16 | 39,220 | 0.0 | 0.02 | |
CN-8 | Hongseong-gun | 1 | 2000 | 0.0 | ||
CN-9 * | Boryeong-si ** | 285 | 604,359 | 0.0 | 0.80 | |
CN-10 | Gongju-si | 4 | 6550 | 0.0 | ||
CN-11 | Gongju-si ** | 34 | 33,483 | 2.9 | ||
CN-12 | Nonsan-si | 25 | 37,540 | 9.9 | 1.12 | |
Sejong-si (SJ) | SJ-1 | Yuseong-gu ** | 13 | 26,230 | 13.6 | 0.35 |
Jeollabuk-do (JB) | JB-1 | Iksan-si | 21 | 19,750 | 3.1 | |
JB-2 | Gunsan-si ** | 13 | 22,900 | 0.0 | ||
JB-3 | Iksan-si ** | 97 | 80,999 | 8.9 | ||
JB-4 | Gimje-si | 11 | 25,630 | 13.4 | ||
JB-5 | Gimje-si ** | 66 | 133,895 | 16.1 | ||
Jeollanam-do (JN) | JN-1 | Hwasun-gun | 9 | 13,773 | 8.3 | 0.32 |
JN-2 | Naju-si | 5 | 16,150 | 12.2 | ||
JN-3 | Muan-gun | 9 | 16,150 | 3.0 | ||
Gwangju-si (GJ) | GJ-1 | Gwangsan-gu ** | 30 | 38,482 | 11.9 | |
Gyeongsangbuk-do (GB) | GB-1 | Yeongcheon-si | 12 | 28,900 | 4.7 | 0.03 |
GB-2 * | Yeongcheon-si | 4 | 7400 | 0.0 | 0.21 | |
GB-3 * | Seongju-gun | 12 | 12,860 | 0.0 | 1.34 | |
GB-4 * | Gyeongju-si ** | 21 | 29,985 | 0.0 | 0.01 | |
GB-5 | Gyeongsan-si | 11 | 20,442 | 8.5 | ||
GB-6 * | Hapcheon-gun ** | 10 | 26,200 | 0.0 | 0.04 | |
Gyeongsangnam-do (GN) | GN-1 | Hapcheon-gun ** | 20 | 33,510 | 0.1 | 1.80 |
GN-2 | Miryang-si | 13 | 10,280 | 6.0 | 0.35 | |
GN-3 | Yangsan-si | 13 | 17,896 | 4.0 | 0.44 | |
GN-4 | Gimhae-si | 57 | 97,584 | 0.1 | 1.26 | |
GN-5 * | Goseong-gun | 12 | 18,578 | 0.0 | 0.10 |
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Choi, J.H.; Namgung, H.; Lim, S.J.; Kim, E.K.; Oh, Y.; Park, Y.C. Predicting Suitable Areas for African Swine Fever Outbreaks in Wild Boars in South Korea and Their Implications for Managing High-Risk Pig Farms. Animals 2023, 13, 2148. https://doi.org/10.3390/ani13132148
Choi JH, Namgung H, Lim SJ, Kim EK, Oh Y, Park YC. Predicting Suitable Areas for African Swine Fever Outbreaks in Wild Boars in South Korea and Their Implications for Managing High-Risk Pig Farms. Animals. 2023; 13(13):2148. https://doi.org/10.3390/ani13132148
Chicago/Turabian StyleChoi, Ju Hui, Hun Namgung, Sang Jin Lim, Eui Kyeong Kim, Yeonsu Oh, and Yung Chul Park. 2023. "Predicting Suitable Areas for African Swine Fever Outbreaks in Wild Boars in South Korea and Their Implications for Managing High-Risk Pig Farms" Animals 13, no. 13: 2148. https://doi.org/10.3390/ani13132148