Determinants of Construction and Demolition Waste Management Performance at City Level: Insights from the Greater Bay Area, China

The rapid growth of construction and demolition waste (CDW) presents significant challenges to sustainable urban development, particularly in densely populated regions, such as the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA). Despite substantial disparities in CDW management (CDWM) performance across cities, the key influencing factors and effective strategies remain underexplored, limiting the development of localized and evidence-based CDWM solutions. Therefore, this study formulated three hypotheses concerning the relationships among CDWM performance, city attributes, and governance capacity to identify the key determinants of CDWM outcomes. These hypotheses were tested using clustering and correlation analysis based on data from 11 GBA cities. The study identified three distinct city clusters based on CDW recycling, reuse, and landfill rates. Institutional support and recycling capacity were key determinants shaping CDWM performance. CDW governance capacity acted as a mediator between city attributes and performance outcomes. In addition, the study examined effective strategies and institutional measures adopted by successful GBA cities. By highlighting the importance of institutional and capacity-related factors, this research offers novel empirical insights into CDW governance in rapidly urbanizing contexts.