Building Adaptation Measures Using Future Climate Scenarios—A Scoping Review of Uncertainty Treatment and Communication
Abstract
:1. Introduction
1.1. Background
- Which methods are used for producing future climate scenarios in research concerning future climate adaptation measures for buildings?
- How are climate-model-induced uncertainties influencing the results evaluated and communicated?
1.2. Emission Scenarios
1.3. Climate Models, Downscaling Methods, and Weather File Synthesis
1.4. Uncertainties in Climate Projections
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Overview
2.2. Identifying and Selecting Relevant Studies
2.3. Charting Data
3. Results
3.1. General Overview of the Identified Studies
3.2. Use of Emission Scenarios in the Studies
3.3. Categorizing the Studies
3.4. Methods for Future Climate Data Generation in the Studies
3.5. Uncertainty Assessments of Climate Model Influence on Output Values
3.6. Characterizing and Mitigating Uncertainties
4. Discussion
4.1. Selecting Emission Scenarios
4.2. Determining, Presenting, and Evaluating Uncertainties
4.3. A proposed Hierarchy of Uncertainty in Climate Modelling
4.4. Future Needs for Tools in Building Climate Adaptation Research
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A
ID # | Author | Year | Journal | Title |
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1 | Berger et al. | 2014 | Building and Environment | Impacts of urban location and climate change upon energy demand of office buildings in Vienna, Austria |
2 | Berger et al. | 2014 | Energy and Builidings | Impacts of climate change upon cooling and heating energy demand of office buildings in Vienna, Austria |
3 | Braun et al. | 2014 | Applied Energy | Using regression analysis to predict the future energy consumption of a supermarket in the UK |
4 | Daly et al. | 2014 | Building and Environment | Implications of global warming for comercial building retrofitting in Australian cities |
5 | Kalvelage et al. | 2014 | Energy and Builidings | Changing climate: The effects on energy demand and human comfort |
6 | Orehounig et al. | 2014 | Sustainable Cities and Society | Projections of design implications on energy performance of future cities: a case study from Vienna |
7 | Patidar et al. | 2014 | Renewable Energy | Simple statistical model for complex probabilistic climate projections: Overheating risk and extreme events |
8 | Saha et al. | 2014 | Urban Climate | Urban scale mapping of concrete degradation from projected climate change |
9 | Sailor | 2014 | Building and Environment | Risks of summertime extreme thermal conditions in buildings as a result of climate change and xacerbation of urban heat islands |
10 | Taylor et al. | 2014 | Building and Environment | The relative importance of input weather data for indoor overheating risk assessment in dwellings |
11 | van Hooff et al. | 2014 | Building and Environment | On the predicted effectiveness of climate adaptation measures for residential buildings |
12 | Wang et al. | 2014 | Energy and Builidings | Impact of climate change heating and cooling energy use in buildings in the United States |
13 | Yau et al. | 2014 | Energy and Builidings | The performance study of a split type air conditioning system in the tropics, as affected b weather |
14 | Zachariadis et al. | 2014 | Energy | The effect of climate change on electricity needs- a case study from Mediterranean Europe |
15 | Zhou et al. | 2014 | Applied Energy | Modeling the effect of climate change on US state-level buildings energy demands in an integrated assessment framework |
16 | Andersson-Sköld et al. | 2015 | Climate Risk Management | An integrated method for assessing climate-related risks and adaptation alternatives in urban areas |
17 | Barbosa et al. | 2015 | Building and Environment | Chlimate change and thermal comfort in Southern Europe housing: A case study from Lisbon |
18 | Dirks et al. | 2015 | Energy | Impacts of climate change on energy consumption and peak demand in buildings: A detailed regional approach |
19 | Guan | 2015 | Architectural Science Review | The influence of internal load density on the energy and thermal performance of air-conditioned office buildings in the face of global warming |
20 | Jenkins et al. | 2015 | Buildings | Quantifying change in buildings in a future climate and their effect on energy systems |
21 | Jylhä et al. | 2015 | Energy and Builidings | Energy demand for the heating and cooling of residential houses in Finland in a changing climate |
22 | Karimpour et al. | 2015 | Energy and Builidings | Impact of climate change on the design of energy efficient residential building envelopes |
23 | Kikumoto et al. | 2015 | Sustianable Cities and Society | Study on the future weather data considering the global and local climate change for building energy simulation |
24 | Nik et al. | 2015 | Energy and Builidings | A statistical method for assessing retrofitting measures of buildings and ranking their robustness against climate change |
25 | Nik et al. | 2015 | Building and Environment | Future moisture loads for building facades in Sweden: Climate change and wind-driven rain |
26 | Sajjadian et al. | 2015 | Energy and Builidings | The potential of phase change materials to reduce domestic cooling energy loads for current and future UK climates |
27 | Virk et al. | 2015 | Energy and Builidings | Microclimatic effects of green and cool roofs in London and their impacts on energy use for a typical office building |
28 | Alves et al. | 2016 | Energy and Builidings | Residential buildings’ thermal performance and comfort for the elderly under climate changes context in the city of São Paulo, Brazil |
29 | Andric et al. | 2016 | Energy and Builidings | Modeling the long-term effect of climate change on building heat demand: Case study on a district level |
30 | Arima et al. | 2016 | Energy and Builidings | Effect of climate change on building cooling loads in Tokyo in the summers of the 2030s using dynamically downscaled GCM data |
31 | Berger et al. | 2016 | Journal of Building Engineering | Impacts of external insulation and reduced internal heat loads upon energy demand of offices in the context of climate change in Vienna, Austria |
32 | Braun et al. | 2016 | Energy and Builidings | Estimating the impact of climate change and local operational procedures on the energy use in several supermarkets throughout Great Britain |
33 | Dodoo et al. | 2016 | Energy | Energy use and overheating risk of Swedish multi-storey residential buildings under different climate scenarios |
34 | Fontanini et al. | 2016 | Energy and Builidings | Exploring future climate trends on the thermal performance of attics: Part 1–Standard roofs |
35 | Huang et al. | 2016 | Climatic Change | Impact of climate change on US building energy demand: sensitivity to spatiotemporal scales, balance point temperature, and population distribution |
36 | Huang et al. | 2016 | Energy | The variation of climate change impact on building energy consumption to building type and spatiotemporal scale |
37 | Huang et al. | 2016 | Applied Energy | Future trends of residential building cooling energy and passive adaptation measures to counteract climate change: The case of Taiwan |
38 | Invidiata et al. | 2016 | Energy and Builidings | Impact of climate change on heating and cooling energy demand in houses in Brazil |
39 | Makantasi et al. | 2016 | Advances in Building Energy Research | Adaptation of London’s social housing to climate change through retrofit: a holistic evaluation approach |
40 | Mulville et al. | 2016 | Building Research and Information | The impact of regulations on overheating risk in dwellings |
41 | Nik et al. | 2016 | Energy and Builidings | Effective and robust energy retrofitting measures for future climatic conditions—Reduced heating demand of Swedish households |
42 | Pagliano et al. | 2016 | Energy and Builidings | Energy retrofit for a climate resilient child care centre |
43 | Perreault et al. | 2016 | Cold Regions Science and Technology | Seasonal thermal insulation to mitigate climate change impacts on foundations in permafrost regions |
44 | Rubio-Bellido et al. | 2016 | Energy | Optimization of annual energy demand in office buildings under the influence of climate change in Chile |
45 | Santamouris | 2016 | Energy and Builidings | Cooling the buildings–past, present and future |
46 | Sehizadeh et al. | 2016 | Building and Environment | Impact of future climates on the durability of typical residential wall assemblies retrofitted to the PassiveHaus for the Eastern Canada region |
47 | Shen et al. | 2016 | Energy | Vulnerability to climate change impacts of present renewable energy systems designed for achieving net-zero energy buildings |
48 | Shibuya et al. | 2016 | Energy and Builidings | The effect of climate change on office building energy consumption in Japan |
49 | van Hooff et al. | 2016 | Energy | Analysis of the predicted effect of passive climate adaptation measures on energy demand for cooling and heating in a residential building |
50 | Waddicor et al. | 2016 | Building and Environment | Climate change and building ageing impact on building energy performance and mitigation measures application: A case study in Turin, northern Italy |
51 | Andric et al. | 2017 | Energy and Builidings | The impact of climate change on building heat demand in different climate types |
52 | Ascione et al. | 2017 | Energy and Builidings | Resilience of robust cost-optimal energy retrofit of buildings to global warming: A multi-stage, multi-objective approach |
53 | Damm et al. | 2017 | Climate Services | Impacts of +2 °C global warming on electricity demand in Europe |
54 | Fahmy et al. | 2017 | Energy and Builidings | On the green adaptation of urban developments in Egypt; predicting community future energy efficiency using coupled outdoor-indoor simulations |
55 | Hamdy et al. | 2017 | Building and Environment | The impact of climate change on the overheating risk in dwellings—A Dutch case study |
56 | Huang et al. | 2017 | Energy and Builidings | Impact of climate change on US building energy demand: Financial implications for consumers and energy suppliers |
57 | Hwang et al. | 2017 | Energy and Builidings | Spatial and temporal analysis of urban heat island and global warming on residential thermal comfort and cooling energy in Taiwan |
58 | Kingsborough et al. | 2017 | Climate Risk Management | Development and appraisal of long-term adaptation pathways for managing heat-risk in London |
59 | Liu et al. | 2017 | Building and Environment | High resolution mapping of overheating and mortality risk |
60 | Mosoarca et al. | 2017 | Engineering Failure Analysis | Failure analysis of historical buildings due to climate change |
61 | Nik | 2017 | Energy and Builidings | Application of typical and extreme weather data sets in the hygrothermal simulation of building components for future climate—A case study for a wooden frame wall |
62 | Pierangioli et al. | 2017 | Building Simulation | Effectiveness of passive measures against climate change: Case studies in Central Italy |
63 | Rubio-Bellido et al. | 2017 | Building Simulation | Application of adaptive comfort behaviors in Chilean social housing standards under the influence of climate change |
64 | Sajjadian | 2017 | Buildings | Performance Evaluation of Well-Insulated Versions of Contemporary Wall Systems—A Case Study of London for a Warmer Climate |
65 | Shen | 2017 | Energy and Builidings | Impacts of climate change on US building energy use by using downscaled hourly future weather data |
66 | Spandagos et al. | 2017 | Applied Energy | Equivalent full-load hours for assessing climate change impact on building cooling and heating energy consumption in large Asian cities |
67 | Wang et al. | 2017 | Energy and Builidings | Prediction of the impacts of climate change on energy consumption for a medium-size office building with two climate models |
68 | Yi et al. | 2017 | Sustainable Cities and Society | Correlating cooling energy use with urban microclimate data for projecting future peak cooling energy demands: Residential neighbourhoods in Seoul |
69 | Chang et al. | 2018 | Building and Environment | Development of a multimedia model (IIAQ-CC) to assess climate change influences on volatile and semi-volatile organic compounds in indoor environments |
70 | Chen et al. | 2018 | Polish Journal of Environmental Studies | Future Climate Change on Energy Consumption of Office Buildings in Different Climate Zones of China |
71 | Clarke et al. | 2018 | Energy Economics | Effects of long-term climate change on global building energy expenditures |
72 | Croce et al. | 2018 | Climate Risk Management | The snow load in Europe and the climate change |
73 | Filippin et al. | 2018 | Energy and Builidings | Improvement of energy performance metrics for the retrofit of the built environment. Adaptation to climate change and mitigation of energy poverty |
74 | Heracleous et al. | 2018 | Energy | Assessment of overheating risk and the impact of natural ventilation in educational buildings of Southern Europe under current and future climatic conditions |
75 | Jeong et al. | 2018 | Sustianable Cities and Society | Projected changes to extreme wind and snow environmental loads for buildings and infrastructure across Canada |
76 | Jiang et al. | 2018 | Energy and Builidings | Accommodating thermal features of commercial building systems to mitigate energy consumption in Florida due to global climate change |
77 | Li | 2018 | Energy | Linking residential electricity consumption and outdoor climate in a tropical city |
78 | Lü et al. | 2018 | Building Simulation | A dynamic modelling approach for simulating climate change impact on energy and hygrothermal performances of wood buildings |
79 | Orr et al. | 2018 | Sci Total Environ | Wind-driven rain and future risk to built heritage in the United Kingdom: Novel metrics for characterising rain spells |
80 | Perez-Andreu et al. | 2018 | Energy | Impact of climate change on heating and cooling energy demand in a residential building in a Mediterranean climate |
81 | San Jose et al. | 2018 | Energy | Effects of climate change on the health of citizens modelling urban weather and air pollution |
82 | Tarroja et al. | 2018 | Applied Energy | Translating climate change and heating system electrification impacts on building energy use to future greenhouse gas emissions and electric grid capacity requirements in California |
83 | Triana et al. | 2019 | Energy and Builidings | Should we consider climate change for Brazilian social housing? Assessment of energy efficiency adaptation measures |
84 | Wang et al. | 2019 | Energy and Builidings | CESAR: A bottom-up building stock modelling tool for Switzerland to address sustainable energy transformation strategies |
85 | Campanico et al. | 2019 | Energy and Builidings | Impact of climate change on building cooling potential of direct ventilation and evaporative cooling: A high resolution view for the Iberian Peninsula |
86 | Dino et al. | 2019 | Renewable Energy | Impact of climate change on the existing residential building stock in Turkey: An analysis on energy use, greenhouse gas emissions and occupant comfort |
87 | Dodoo et al. | 2019 | Buildings | Effects of climate change for thermal comfort and energy performance of residential buildings in a Sub-Saharan African climate |
88 | Dominguez-Amarillo et al. | 2019 | Energy and Builidings | The performance of Mediterranean low-income housing in scenarios involving climate change |
89 | Flores-Larsen et al. | 2019 | Energy and Builidings | Impact of climate change on energy use and bioclimatic design of residential buildings in the 21st century in Argentina |
90 | Guarino et al. | 2019 | Energy and Builidings | Data fusion analysis applied to different climate change models: An application to the energy consumptions of a building office |
91 | Roshan et al. | 2019 | Building and Environment | Projecting the impact of climate change on design recommendations for residential buildings in Iran |
92 | Sanchez-Garcia et al. | 2019 | Energy and Builidings | Towards the quantification of energy demand and consumption through the adaptive comfort approach in mixed mode office buildings considering climate change |
93 | Verstraten et al. | 2019 | Building and Environment | Sensitivity of Australian roof drainage structures to design rainfall variability and climatic change |
94 | Zheng et al. | 2019 | Energy | Modeling the effect of climate change on building energy demand in Los Angeles county by using a GIS-based high spatial-and temporal-resolution approach |
95 | Andric et al. | 2020 | Energy Reports | Efficiency of green roofs and green walls as climate change mitigation measures in extremely hot and dry climate: Case study of Qatar |
96 | Caldas et al. | 2020 | Construction and Building Materials | Bamboo bio-concrete as an alternative for buildings climate change mitigation and adaptaton |
97 | Chiesa et al. | 2020 | Energy and Builidings | Contrasting climate-based approaches and building simulations for the investigation of Earth-to-air heat exchanger (EAHE) cooling sensitivity to building dimensions and future climate scenarios in North America |
98 | Dias et al. | 2020 | Building and Environment | The shape of days to come: Effects of climate change on low energy buildings |
99 | Ekolu | 2020 | Cement and Concrete Composites | Implications of global CO2 emissions on natural carbonation and service lifespan of concrete infrastructures–Reliability analysis |
100 | Elsharkawy et al. | 2020 | Building and Environment | The significance of occupancy profiles in determining post retrofit indoor thermal comfort, overheating risk and building energy performance |
101 | Figueiredo et al. | 2020 | Energy and Builidings | Country residential building stock electricity demand in future climate–Portuguese case study |
102 | Garshasbi et al. | 2020 | Solar Energy | Urban mitigation and building adaptation to minimize the future cooling energy needs |
103 | Haddad et al. | 2020 | Energy and Builidings | On the potential of building adaptation measures to counterbalance the impact of climatic change in the tropics |
104 | Jeong et al. | 2020 | Building and Environment | Projected changes to moisture loads for design and management of building exteriors over Canada |
105 | Lacasse et al. | 2020 | Buildings | Durability and Climate Change—Implications for Service Life Prediction and the Maintainability of Buildings |
106 | Larsen et al. | 2020 | Energy and Builidings | Climate change impacts on trends and extremes in future heating and cooling demands over Europe |
107 | Liu et al. | 2020 | Energy and Builidings | Effectiveness of passive design strategies in responding to future climate change for residential buildings in hot and humid Hong Kong |
108 | Prieto et al. | 2020 | Building and Environment | Heritage, resilience and climate change: A fuzzy logic application in timber-framed masonry buildings in Valparaíso, Chile |
109 | Shen et al. | 2020 | Journal of Building Engineering | An early-stage analysis of climate-adaptive designs for multi-family buildings under future climate scenario: Case studies in Rome, Italy and Stockholm, Sweden |
110 | Verichev et al. | 2020 | Energy and Builidings | Effects of climate change on variations in climatic zones and heating energy consumption of residential buildings in the southern Chile |
111 | Zhou et al. | 2020 | Building and Environment | Assessment of risk of freeze–thaw damage in internally insulated masonry in a changing climate |
112 | Zune et al. | 2020 | Energy and Builidings | The vulnerability of homes to overheating in Myanmar today and in the future: A heat index analysis of measured and simulated data |
113 | Bamdad et al. | 2021 | Energy and Builidings | Future energy-optimised buildings—Addressing the impact of climate change on buildings |
114 | Defo et al. | 2021 | Buildings | Effects of Climate Change on the Moisture Performance of Tallwood Building Envelope |
115 | Dukhan et al. | 2021 | Building and Environment | Understanding and modelling future wind-driven rain loads on building envelopes for Canada |
116 | Rysanek et al. | 2021 | Building and Environment | Forecasting the impact of climate change on thermal comfort using a weighted ensemble of supervised learning models |
117 | Vandemeulebroucke et al. | 2021 | Buildings | Factorial Study on the Impact of Climate Change on Freeze–thaw Damage, Mould Growth and Wood Decay in Solid Masonry Walls in Brussels |
118 | Vandemeulebroucke et al. | 2021 | Building and Environment | Canadian initial-condition climate ensemble: Hygrothermal simulation on wood-stud and retrofitted historical masonry |
119 | Verichev et al. | 2021 | Energy and Builidings | Adaptation and mitigation to climate change of envelope wall thermal insulation of residential buildings in a temperate oceanic climate |
120 | Zou et al. | 2021 | Building and Environment | A simulation-based method to predict the life cycle energy performance of residential buildings in different climate zones of China |
121 | Akkose et al. | 2021 | Journal of Building Engineering | Educational building retrofit under climate change and urban heat island effect |
122 | Alves et al. | 2021 | Energy and Builidings | The recent residential apartment buildings’ thermal performance under the combined effect of the global and the local warming |
123 | Ascione et al. | 2021 | Energy and Builidings | Effects of global warming on energy retrofit planning of neighbourhoods under stochastic human behavior |
124 | Bienvenido-Huertas et al. | 2021 | Building and Environment | Analysis of climate change impact on the preservation of heritage elements in historic buildings with a deficient indoor microclimate in warm regions |
125 | Chen et al. | 2021 | Building and Environment | Effects of climate change on the heating indices in central heating zone of China |
126 | De Masi et al. | 2021 | Applied Energy | Impact of weather data and climate change projections in the refurbishment design of residential buildings in cooling dominated climate |
127 | Gamero-Salinas et al. | 2021 | Buildings | Passive cooling design strategies as adaptation measures for lowering the indoor overheating risk in tropical climates |
128 | Gaur et al. | 2021 | Building and Environment | Future projected changes in moisture index over Canada |
129 | Gilani et al. | 2021 | Building Research and Information | Natural ventilation usability under climate change in Canada and the United States |
130 | Heracleous et al. | 2021 | Journal of Building Engineering | Climate change resilience of school premises in Cyprus: An examination of retrofit approaches and their implications on thermal and energy performance |
131 | Rahif et al. | 2021 | Building and Environment | Simulation-based framework to evaluate resistivity of cooling strategies in buildings against overheating impact of climate change |
132 | Tootkaboni et al. | 2021 | Energy Reports | Analysing the future energy performance of residential buildings in the most populated Italian climatic zone: A study of climate change impacts |
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Category | Description |
---|---|
Level 1 | Uncertainty about the outcome: The model is known, the parameters are known, and it predicts a certain outcome with a probability p. |
Level 2 | Uncertainty about the parameters: The model is known, but its parameters are not known. A lack of empirical information leads to uncertainties in the probability of the outcome. |
Level 3 | Uncertainty about the model choice: There are several models to choose from, and we have an idea of how likely each competing model reflects reality. |
Level 4 | Uncertainty about acknowledged inadequacies and our implicitly-made assumptions in the chosen model: The validity of the assumptions is questioned, both omitted and included in the model. |
Level 5 | Uncertainty about unknown inadequacies: There is uncertainty as to whether a high impact parameter in the model is lacking because the parameter is unknown. |
Journals | Search Engines | Key Words |
---|---|---|
Building and Environment | Science Direct Oria Google Scholar | Climate change |
Climate Services | Adaptation | |
Energy and Buildings | Impact | |
Building Research & Information | Building | |
Journal of Climate Change | Energy | |
Buildings | Thermal comfort | |
Journal of Building Physics | Cooling | |
Sustainable Cities and Society | Overheating | |
International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management | Measure | |
Retrofit |
Categorization | # | Study ID (See Appendix A for Study Details) | |
---|---|---|---|
Field of research | Energy demand for heating and cooling | 49 | 3, 4, 6, 12, 14, 15, 18, 21–24, 29, 31–33, 35, 36, 38, 41, 42, 44, 48, 50–54, 56, 65, 67, 71, 73, 76, 77, 80, 82–84, 86, 90, 94, 101, 110, 113, 120, 123, 126, 130, 132 |
HVAC, overheating, and indoor climate | 38 | 1, 2, 5, 7, 9, 10, 13, 17, 19, 20, 28, 30, 37, 40, 55, 57, 59, 63, 66, 68–70, 74, 81, 85, 87, 92, 97, 100, 102, 112, 116, 121, 122, 124, 127, 129, 131 | |
Future climate loads for buildings | 9 | 72, 75, 79, 104–106, 115, 125, 128 | |
Performance/sustainability (system level) | 21 | 11, 16, 27, 39, 43, 45, 47, 49, 58, 60, 62, 64, 88, 89, 91, 95, 98, 103, 107, 109, 119 | |
Performance/sustainability (material or component level) | 15 | 8, 25, 26, 34, 46, 61, 78, 93, 96, 99, 108, 111, 114, 117, 118 | |
Climate parameters | Temperature and solar radiation | 130 | 1–98, 100–124, 126–132 |
Athmospheric conditions (humidity, CO2-concentrations, pollutants) | 72 | 1–6, 8, 12, 13, 21, 23, 25–28, 30, 33, 37, 38, 42, 44, 46–48, 52, 54, 55, 57, 60, 61, 65, 67, 70, 76–78, 80–85, 87, 89–92, 94–97, 99, 103, 104, 107–109, 112, 114–118, 121, 122, 126–128, 130–132 | |
Precipitation | 20 | 25, 46, 60, 61, 72, 75, 77, 79, 82, 93, 104, 105, 108, 111, 114, 115, 117, 118, 128, 131 | |
Wind direction and wind speed | 45 | 1, 2, 5, 6, 12, 13, 25, 27, 28, 30, 33, 47, 48, 54, 57, 60, 61, 65, 67, 70, 75–77, 79, 80, 82, 84, 85, 87, 89, 90, 92, 94, 95, 97, 105, 109, 112, 114–116, 118, 121, 126, 131 | |
Frost cycles and snow loads | 5 | 72, 75, 117, 126, 128 | |
Model time interval | Hourly values | 98 | 1, 2, 4–7, 9–12, 17–25, 28–30, 32–34, 36–39, 41, 42, 44, 46–51, 54, 55, 57, 59, 61–67, 69, 70, 74, 76, 79–90, 92–98, 100–104, 107, 109, 111–118, 120–128, 131, 132 |
Daily values | 15 | 14–16, 35, 40, 53, 58, 71–73, 77, 78, 91, 106, 129 | |
Monthly values | 18 | 3, 8, 13, 26, 27, 43, 45, 52, 56, 60, 68, 75, 99, 105, 108, 110, 119, 130 | |
Emission scenario | RCP 2.6/B1 | 14 | 51, 53, 67, 70, 91, 97, 99, 101, 106, 108–110, 117, 119 |
RCP 4.5/B2 | 46 | 7–9, 12, 20–23, 29, 30, 32–34, 36, 37, 47, 50, 53, 61, 66–68, 71–73, 75, 77, 80, 81, 84, 90, 91, 93, 97, 99, 101, 102, 106, 107, 109, 117, 120, 123, 125, 126, 132 | |
RCP 6.0/A1B | 30 | 1, 2, 6, 7, 10, 12, 14, 16, 20–22, 24, 25, 27, 29, 32, 34, 36, 37, 39, 40, 51, 57, 58, 70, 74, 87, 94, 109, 130 | |
RCP 8.5/A1F1/A2 | 90 | 3–5, 7, 8, 12, 15, 17–21, 26, 28, 29, 32–39, 42–48, 50, 51, 53, 56, 59, 63–69, 71, 72, 75, 77, 79–86, 88–95, 97–99, 101, 103, 104, 107–111, 113, 115–124, 126–129, 131, 132 | |
Non-IPCC scenario (i.e., +T temp. change) | 7 | 52, 55, 61, 62, 105, 112, 114 | |
Historical extreme | 2 | 11, 49 | |
Not specified | 9 | 13, 31, 41, 54, 60, 76, 78, 96, 100 | |
Climate model to weather data | Dynamic downscaling, multiple GCM-RCM chains | 23 | 5, 16, 24, 25, 33, 35, 36, 41, 61, 72, 75, 98, 101, 103–106, 109, 111, 114, 115, 118, 122 |
Dynamic downscaling, single GCM-RCM chain | 16 | 1, 2, 6, 14, 23, 28, 30, 31, 34, 48, 57, 66, 81, 85, 117, 125 | |
Statistical downscaling/morphing, multiple GCM/RCM | 23 | 8, 9, 18, 21, 37, 53, 56, 67, 79, 80, 82, 86, 90, 93, 97, 107, 108, 110, 124, 126, 128, 131, 132 | |
Statistical downscaling/morphing, single GCM/RCM | 45 | 4, 7, 10, 12, 13, 17, 20, 22, 26, 27, 29, 32, 38–40, 42, 44, 46, 47, 51, 54, 58–60, 62–65, 76, 83, 84, 88, 89, 91, 92, 94–96, 100, 112, 113, 116, 120, 121, 129 | |
Other | 7 | 11, 15, 43, 49, 70, 71, 78 | |
Not described | 18 | 3, 19, 45, 50, 52, 55, 68, 69, 73, 74, 77, 87, 99, 102, 119, 123, 127, 130 | |
Result presentation | Probabilistic output (evaluation of climatic uncertainties and/or variance) | 27 | 3, 7, 10, 20, 21, 24, 25, 32, 40, 41, 53, 58, 59, 61, 79, 90, 93, 103, 104, 106, 107, 110, 114, 115, 118, 126, 128 |
Deterministic multiple output (alternative climatic outcomes) | 44 | 8, 12, 19, 29, 30, 33–37, 39, 47, 50–52, 55, 65–68, 70–72, 75, 80–82, 84, 91, 94, 97, 98, 101, 105, 108, 109, 111, 112, 117, 120, 122, 123, 131, 132 | |
Deterministic single output (no alternative climatic outcomes) | 60 | 1, 2, 4–6, 9, 11, 13–18, 22, 23, 26–28, 31, 38, 42, 44–46, 48, 49, 54, 56, 57, 60, 62–64, 69, 73, 74, 76–78, 83, 85–89, 92, 95, 96, 99, 100, 102, 113, 116, 119, 121, 124, 125, 127, 129, 130 |
Description | # | Study ID (See Appendix A for Study Details) | |
---|---|---|---|
Emission scenario | Numerical analysis of scenario variations | 24 | 4, 12, 14, 15, 17, 20, 36, 39, 50, 59, 64, 65, 83, 90, 93, 101, 105, 107, 108, 110, 114, 117, 123, 130 |
Description of scenario uncertainty/variation | 73 | 5, 8, 11, 19, 21, 22, 25–30, 32–34, 37, 40–43, 46, 47, 49, 51–53,55, 58, 61, 62, 67, 68, 70–72, 74, 75, 77–81, 84–89, 91, 92, 94, 95, 97–99, 103, 104, 106, 109, 111, 113, 115, 116, 120–122, 124–129, 132 | |
No description of scenario variations or scenario related uncertainties | 34 | 1–3, 6, 7, 9, 10, 13, 16, 18, 23, 24, 31, 35, 38, 44, 45, 48, 54, 56, 57, 60, 63, 66, 69, 73, 76, 82, 96, 100, 102, 112, 119, 131 | |
Climate model to weather data | Calculated climate model uncertainties or variations | 36 | 3, 6, 7, 9, 10, 20, 21, 24, 25, 29, 30, 32, 41, 58, 59, 61, 72, 75, 78, 79, 81, 90, 93, 103, 104, 106, 107, 109–111, 114, 115, 120, 126, 128, 132 |
Description of climate model uncertainties and biases | 30 | 16, 23, 35, 37, 40, 44, 46, 47, 51, 53, 57, 65, 67, 80, 88, 89, 91, 92, 94, 95, 97, 98, 100, 108, 113, 117, 121, 122, 124, 129 | |
No description of climate model uncertainties and biases | 62 | 1, 2, 4, 5, 11–15, 17–19, 22, 26–28, 31, 33, 34, 36, 38, 39, 42, 43, 45, 48–50, 52, 54–56, 60, 62–64, 66, 68–71, 73, 74, 76, 77, 82–87, 96, 99, 101, 102, 105, 112, 116, 119, 123, 125, 130 | |
Result presentation | Calculation of climate model uncertainties or variations | 30 | 3, 7, 10, 20, 21, 24, 25, 32, 39, 41, 53, 58, 59, 61, 72, 79, 90, 93, 103, 106, 107, 109–111, 114, 115, 118, 122, 126, 128 |
Evaluation of climate model uncertainty as an unknown factor | 17 | 4, 15, 23, 29, 30, 40, 67, 75, 80, 81, 88, 97, 104, 105, 116, 121, 132 | |
Explicit acknowledgement of climate model uncertainty with no evaluation | 29 | 8, 16, 17, 28, 33, 36, 38, 42, 43, 46, 47, 51, 62, 66, 68, 71, 77, 78, 83, 94, 102, 108, 112, 113, 117, 120, 123, 125, 127 | |
No mention of climate model uncertainty | 56 | 1, 2, 5, 6, 9, 11–14, 18, 19, 22, 26, 27, 31, 34, 35, 37, 44, 45, 48–50, 52, 54–57, 60, 63–65, 69, 70, 73, 74, 76, 82, 84–87, 89, 91, 92, 95, 96, 98–101, 119, 124, 129–131 |
SRES Scenario | Equivalent RCP Scenario Emission Prediction |
---|---|
A1F1 | RCP 8.5 |
A2 a | RCP 8.5 |
A1B | RCP 6.0 |
B2 | RCP 6.0 |
B1 | RCP 4.5 |
Level 1 (Uncertainty about the Outcome) | Level 2 (Uncertainty about the Parameters) | Level 3 (Uncertainty about the Model Choice) | Level 4 (Uncertainty about Acknowledged Inadequacies in the Chosen Model) | Level 5 (Uncertainty about Unknown Inadequacies) | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emission scenario uncertainty (type 1) | characterization | Non-exhaustive empirical climate information | Validity of emission scenarios | Complexity of global climate systems, effects of high-impact parameters | Future socio-economic conditions and unknown climate effects | |
mitigation | N/A | Calculation of multiple scenarios | Evaluation of selected scenario validity | N/A | ||
Climate model uncertainty (type 2) | characterization | Downscaling precision level, topographic influence | GCM variability, choice of downscaling method | Non-perfect climate modelling and weather file generation | Unknown high-impact parameters influenced by increased emission levels. | |
mitigation | Calibration of the model to empirical data, bias correction | Calculation of multiple RCM-GCM chains or statistical downscaling of GCM ensemble. | Evaluation of inadequacies in the chosen climate modelling method | N/A | ||
Result model uncertainty (type 3) | characterization | Natural variability in stochastic generation of weather files | Non-perfect input from climate model and stochastic weather files | Variability between emission scenarios | Total accumulated uncertainty from emission scenario to result | |
mitigation | Generation of multiple weather files for statistical analysis | Calculation of the climate model’s influence on result outcome space | Calculation of results from multiple scenarios | Evaluation of result validity |
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Gaarder, J.E.; Hygen, H.O.; Bohne, R.A.; Kvande, T. Building Adaptation Measures Using Future Climate Scenarios—A Scoping Review of Uncertainty Treatment and Communication. Buildings 2023, 13, 1460. https://doi.org/10.3390/buildings13061460
Gaarder JE, Hygen HO, Bohne RA, Kvande T. Building Adaptation Measures Using Future Climate Scenarios—A Scoping Review of Uncertainty Treatment and Communication. Buildings. 2023; 13(6):1460. https://doi.org/10.3390/buildings13061460
Chicago/Turabian StyleGaarder, Jørn Emil, Hans Olav Hygen, Rolf André Bohne, and Tore Kvande. 2023. "Building Adaptation Measures Using Future Climate Scenarios—A Scoping Review of Uncertainty Treatment and Communication" Buildings 13, no. 6: 1460. https://doi.org/10.3390/buildings13061460