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Article

A Control Based Mathematical Model for the Evaluation of Intervention Lines in COVID-19 Epidemic Spread: The Italian Case Study

Department of Computer, Control and Management Engineering Antonio Ruberti, Sapienza University of Rome, Via Ariosto 25, 00185 Rome, Italy
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Academic Editor: Dalibor Štys
Symmetry 2021, 13(5), 890; https://doi.org/10.3390/sym13050890
Received: 12 April 2021 / Revised: 3 May 2021 / Accepted: 10 May 2021 / Published: 17 May 2021
This paper addresses the problem of describing the spread of COVID-19 by a mathematical model introducing all the possible control actions as prevention (informative campaign, use of masks, social distancing, vaccination) and medication. The model adopted is similar to SEIQR, with the infected patients split into groups of asymptomatic subjects and isolated ones. This distinction is particularly important in the current pandemic, due to the fundamental the role of asymptomatic subjects in the virus diffusion. The influence of the control actions is considered in analysing the model, from the calculus of the equilibrium points to the determination of the reproduction number. This choice is motivated by the fact that the available organised data have been collected since from the end of February 2020, and almost simultaneously containment measures, increasing in typology and effectiveness, have been applied. The characteristics of COVID-19, not fully understood yet, suggest an asymmetric diffusion among countries and among categories of subjects. Referring to the Italian situation, the containment measures, as applied by the population, have been identified, showing their relation with the government’s decisions; this allows the study of possible scenarios, comparing the impact of different possible choices. View Full-Text
Keywords: epidemic ODE model; COVID-19 spread in Italy; system control and identification epidemic ODE model; COVID-19 spread in Italy; system control and identification
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MDPI and ACS Style

Di Giamberardino, P.; Caldarella, R.; Iacoviello, D. A Control Based Mathematical Model for the Evaluation of Intervention Lines in COVID-19 Epidemic Spread: The Italian Case Study. Symmetry 2021, 13, 890. https://doi.org/10.3390/sym13050890

AMA Style

Di Giamberardino P, Caldarella R, Iacoviello D. A Control Based Mathematical Model for the Evaluation of Intervention Lines in COVID-19 Epidemic Spread: The Italian Case Study. Symmetry. 2021; 13(5):890. https://doi.org/10.3390/sym13050890

Chicago/Turabian Style

Di Giamberardino, Paolo, Rita Caldarella, and Daniela Iacoviello. 2021. "A Control Based Mathematical Model for the Evaluation of Intervention Lines in COVID-19 Epidemic Spread: The Italian Case Study" Symmetry 13, no. 5: 890. https://doi.org/10.3390/sym13050890

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