Land Use and Agricultural Policy: Assessing the Green Morocco Plan’s Effect on Cereal Production

This study assesses the impact of the Green Morocco Plan (GMP) on cereal production in Morocco between 1994 and 2020, focusing on spatial and temporal variations and their relationship with seasonal rainfall. Given the limited availability of other potentially influential factors, this study focuses on two main drivers: rainfall and cultivated surface area changes. The analysis centers on three cereal crops, durum wheat (Dw), soft wheat (Sw), and barley (Br), given their crucial role in Morocco’s food security. Three major cereal-producing regions, Tangier–Tetouan–Al Hoceima (TTH), Fes–Meknes (FM), and Rabat–Sale–Kenitra (RSK), accounting for 84% of national cereal output, were analyzed to capture contrasting agro-climatic conditions. Using regional production data and rainfall records, combined with breakpoint detection and correlation analyses, the study identifies the principal drivers of production shifts associated with the implementation of the GMP. Results reveal a significant structural change in cereal production around 2008, coinciding with the GMP launch. In TTH, mean annual production of Dw increased by 117% and Sw by 153%, while Br grew by 53%. In FM, gains reached 81% for Sw, 46% for Dw, and 52% for Br, whereas in RSK the respective increases were 63%, 39%, and 50%. These improvements occurred despite recurrent droughts and reductions in cultivated areas, indicating enhanced resilience supported by irrigation expansion and improved inputs under the GMP. Correlation analyses show that mid-season rainfall (January–May) strongly influences production, with significant coefficients for durum wheat (r = 0.6) and barley (r = 0.7), whereas soft wheat shows weaker rainfall dependence, likely reflecting irrigation prioritization and market-driven management. The results also suggest that rainfall timing and intra-seasonal distribution exert greater influence on production than total rainfall. Overall, the findings demonstrate that the GMP substantially strengthened cereal productivity and resilience, while decoupling production from direct rainfall dependence and revealing emerging regional contrasts in land-use trajectories.