Evaluation of the Performance and the Predictive Capacity of Build-Up and Wash-Off Models on Different Temporal Scales
1
LEESU, MA 102, Ecole des Ponts, AgroParisTech, UPEC, UPE 77455 Champs-sur-Marne, France
2
Faculty of Engineering III, Lebanese University, Beirut, Lebanon
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Brigitte Helmreich
Water 2016, 8(8), 312; https://doi.org/10.3390/w8080312
Received: 25 May 2016 / Revised: 7 July 2016 / Accepted: 12 July 2016 / Published: 23 July 2016
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Urban Drainage and Urban Stormwater Management)
Stormwater quality modeling has arisen as a promising tool to develop mitigation strategies. The aim of this paper is to assess the build-up and wash-off processes and investigate the capacity of several water quality models to accurately simulate and predict the temporal variability of suspended solids concentrations in runoff, based on a long-term data set. A Markov Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) technique is applied to calibrate the models and analyze the parameter’s uncertainty. The short-term predictive capacity of the models is assessed based on inter- and intra-event approaches. Results suggest that the performance of the wash-off model is related to the dynamic of pollutant transport where the best fit is recorded for first flush events. Assessment of SWMM (Storm Water Management Model) exponential build-up model reveals that better performance is obtained on short periods and that build-up models relying only on the antecedent dry weather period as an explanatory variable, cannot predict satisfactorily the accumulated mass on the surface. The predictive inter-event capacity of SWMM exponential model proves its inability to predict the pollutograph while the intra-event approach based on data assimilation proves its efficiency for first flush events only. This method is very interesting for management practices because of its simplicity and easy implementation.
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Keywords:
urban stormwater; concentrations; suspended solids; modeling; build-up; wash-off; data assimilation; MCMC; water quality
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MDPI and ACS Style
Al Ali, S.; Bonhomme, C.; Chebbo, G. Evaluation of the Performance and the Predictive Capacity of Build-Up and Wash-Off Models on Different Temporal Scales. Water 2016, 8, 312. https://doi.org/10.3390/w8080312
AMA Style
Al Ali S, Bonhomme C, Chebbo G. Evaluation of the Performance and the Predictive Capacity of Build-Up and Wash-Off Models on Different Temporal Scales. Water. 2016; 8(8):312. https://doi.org/10.3390/w8080312
Chicago/Turabian StyleAl Ali, Saja; Bonhomme, Céline; Chebbo, Ghassan. 2016. "Evaluation of the Performance and the Predictive Capacity of Build-Up and Wash-Off Models on Different Temporal Scales" Water 8, no. 8: 312. https://doi.org/10.3390/w8080312
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