Spatiotemporal Evolution of Groundwater and Vegetation Response Driving Mechanism in the Tarim River Basin Based on Multi-Source Remote Sensing

As the largest inland river basin in China’s extremely arid region, the stability of the groundwater–vegetatifon system in the Tarim River Basin is crucial for the consolidation of the ecological security barrier in the northwest. To reveal the evolution law of groundwater storage in the watershed from 2003 to 2024 and its response mechanism to vegetation dynamics, this study is based on GRACE gravity satellite, GLDAS land surface assimilation and MODIS remote sensing data. The Theil Sen trend analysis, Hurst index, spatiotemporal Granger causality test, and standardized multiple linear regression model are integrated to systematically analyze the spatiotemporal heterogeneity, future evolution trend, and multi-driving factor contribution pattern of groundwater storage (GWSA) in the watershed. The results showed that: (1) During the study period, the GWSA of the watershed showed a significant downward trend, with a rate of −3.5 mm/a, and experienced a spatial redistribution process of “comprehensive loss local recovery southern compensation northern loss”. The northern and peripheral regions faced new depletion risks. (2) The vegetation condition continues to improve, and the VCI gradually rises from the low to medium range, but the spatial heterogeneity increases synchronously; there is a significant spatial positive correlation between VCI and GWSA, with only a strong lag driving effect in the southwestern region (F > 40). The explanatory power of vegetation factors for groundwater in other regions is limited. (3) Future trend predictions show that over 70% of the region will continue in the direction of historical changes, and the continuous loss trend in the north is difficult to reverse. (4) There is significant spatial differentiation in the contribution rate of driving factors: vegetation conditions (VCI) are the dominant factor, controlling 57.53% of the watershed edge and eastern region; precipitation and temperature dominate the central region (24.94%) and southwestern desert areas (17.53%), respectively. The research results can provide scientific basis for differentiated ecological water delivery and refined management of water resources in the Tarim River Basin.