Forecasting Urban Water Demand Using Multi-Scale Artificial Neural Networks with Temporal Lag Optimization

Accurate short-term forecasting of urban water demand is a persistent challenge for utilities seeking to optimize operations, reduce energy costs, and enhance resilience in smart distribution systems. This study presents a multi-scale Artificial Neural Network (ANN) modeling approach that integrates temporal lag optimization to predict daily and hourly water consumption across heterogeneous user profiles. Using high-resolution smart metering data from the SunRise Smart City Project in Lille, France, four demand nodes were analyzed: a District Metered Area (DMA), a student residence, a university restaurant, and an engineering school. Results demonstrate that incorporating lagged consumption variables substantially improves prediction accuracy, with daily R² values increasing from 0.490 to 0.827 at the DMA and from 0.420 to 0.806 at the student residence. At the hourly scale, the 1-h lag model consistently outperformed other configurations, achieving R² up to 0.944 at the DMA, thus capturing both peak and off-peak consumption dynamics. The findings confirm that short-term autocorrelation is a dominant driver of demand variability, and that ANN-based forecasting enhanced by temporal lag features provides a robust, computationally efficient tool for real-time water network management. Beyond improving forecasting performance, the proposed methodology supports operational applications such as leakage detection, anomaly identification, and demand-responsive planning, contributing to more sustainable and resilient urban water systems.