Analysis of Agricultural Drought Evolution Characteristics and Driving Factors in Inner Mongolia Inland River Basin Based on Three-Dimensional Recognition
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Study Region
3. Materials and Methods
3.1. Materials
3.1.1. Soil Moisture Data
3.1.2. Meteorological Factor Data and Drought Statistics
3.2. Methods
3.2.1. Standardized Soil Moisture Index
3.2.2. Modified Mann–Kendall Test
3.2.3. Three-Dimensional Identification Method of Drought Events
- (1)
- Drought patch recognition
- (2)
- Drought patch time–history connection
- (3)
- Drought characteristic variable extraction.
- (1)
- Drought duration is the duration of the drought event; it is the first and the last time interval between dry patches; it can also be considered a drought at the height of the three-dimensional continuum;
- (2)
- Drought area is the vertical projection area of the three-dimensional continuum of drought on a two-dimensional plane (longitude × latitude);
- (3)
- Drought severity is the sum of the water shortage degree of all arid bodies, that is, the volume of the three-dimensional drought continuum;
- (4)
- Drought center is a drought three-dimensional continuum center of mass;
- (5)
- Drought migration direction is a drought three-dimensional continuum drought center at every moment.
3.2.4. Cross-Wavelet Transform
4. Results
4.1. Temporal Evolution Characteristics of Agricultural Drought
4.1.1. Characteristics of Drought Time Evolution in Multi-Scale Agriculture
4.1.2. Variation Trend of Agricultural Drought Time at Different Scales
4.1.3. Temporal Characteristics of Seasonal Drought Intensity and Area Proportion
4.2. Spatial Evolution Characteristics of Agricultural Drought
4.2.1. Spatial Distribution Characteristics of Drought Change Trend
4.2.2. Spatial Distribution Characteristics of Agricultural Drought Intensity
4.2.3. Spatial Distribution Characteristics of Agricultural Drought Frequency
4.3. Dynamic Evolution of Agricultural Drought Events Based on Three-Dimensional Recognition Method
4.3.1. Drought Recognition Results Based on Three-Dimensional Recognition Method
4.3.2. Analysis of Typical Agricultural Drought Events
5. Discussion
5.1. Driving Factor Analysis
5.2. Advantages and Limitations
6. Conclusions
- (1)
- With the increase in time scale, the fluctuation of agricultural drought decreased, but the SSMI index of all scales showed a downward trend, and the spring drought was the most obvious (linear tendency rate was −0.072/10a), and the change trend of drought area proportion and intensity was similar in four seasons;
- (2)
- The spatial distribution characteristics of drought change trend in four seasons were similar, but the area with a significant downward trend of drought in spring was the largest, and the area of the high-frequency region was also the largest, accounting for 35.40% and 42.70% respectively;
- (3)
- The most serious agricultural drought happened from October 2000 to May 2002, and both the drought area and severity reached the maximum in September 2001, with the drought area and intensity of 2.26 × 105 km2 and 3.61 × 105 months·km2, respectively. The drought event mainly experienced five processes: drought onset–intensification–decay–re-intensification–termination, and the migration path of the drought center was characterized by southwest to northeast transmission;
- (4)
- T, P, E, and H all played a driving role in the occurrence of agricultural drought. T and E were mainly negatively correlated with SSMI; P and H were mainly positively correlated with SSMI, and P had a greater impact on SSMI.
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Drought Level | SSMI | Drought Severity |
---|---|---|
I | −0.5 < SSMI | No drought |
II | −1 < SSMI ≤ −0.5 | Light drought |
III | −1.5 < SSMI ≤ −1 | Moderate drought |
IV | −2 < SSMI ≤ −1.5 | Severe drought |
VI | SSMI ≤ −2 | Extreme drought |
Number | Start Time (Month Year) | End Time (Month Year) | Drought Duration (Month) | Drought Center | Drought Area (104 km2) | Drought Severity (105 Months·km2) | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lon | Lat | ||||||
36 | October 2020 | May 2002 | 20 | 113.81 | 43.20 | 24.19 | 35.28 |
56 | October 2007 | June 2008 | 9 | 114.52 | 43.73 | 26.31 | 27.58 |
83 | July 2017 | August 2018 | 14 | 111.09 | 42.51 | 12.99 | 23.12 |
5 | August 1965 | June 1966 | 11 | 111.80 | 42.31 | 16.85 | 18.99 |
45 | September 2005 | May 2006 | 9 | 114.44 | 43.89 | 19.40 | 18.32 |
69 | September 2011 | June 2012 | 10 | 112.43 | 42.68 | 14.62 | 18.20 |
61 | September 2009 | May 2010 | 9 | 114.69 | 43.58 | 17.43 | 16.59 |
59 | September 2008 | July 2009 | 11 | 115.84 | 44.58 | 16.84 | 15.17 |
41 | October 2002 | May 2003 | 8 | 112.38 | 42.64 | 13.71 | 11.63 |
51 | September 2006 | May 2007 | 9 | 111.76 | 42.59 | 14.07 | 10.89 |
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Zhang, Z.; Guo, H.; Feng, K.; Wang, F.; Zhang, W.; Liu, J. Analysis of Agricultural Drought Evolution Characteristics and Driving Factors in Inner Mongolia Inland River Basin Based on Three-Dimensional Recognition. Water 2024, 16, 440. https://doi.org/10.3390/w16030440
Zhang Z, Guo H, Feng K, Wang F, Zhang W, Liu J. Analysis of Agricultural Drought Evolution Characteristics and Driving Factors in Inner Mongolia Inland River Basin Based on Three-Dimensional Recognition. Water. 2024; 16(3):440. https://doi.org/10.3390/w16030440
Chicago/Turabian StyleZhang, Zezhong, Hengzhi Guo, Kai Feng, Fei Wang, Weijie Zhang, and Jian Liu. 2024. "Analysis of Agricultural Drought Evolution Characteristics and Driving Factors in Inner Mongolia Inland River Basin Based on Three-Dimensional Recognition" Water 16, no. 3: 440. https://doi.org/10.3390/w16030440