Challenges for Flood Risk Reduction in Poland’s Changing Climate
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Flood Risk and Its Management in Poland
2.1. Changes in Flood Risk in Poland
2.2. Flood Risk Management in Poland
- The “Emergency Flood Recovery Project” implemented in 1998–2006, with a budget of USD 524.45 million (The World Bank, Implementation Completion Report, Loan 4264-POL, 2006);
- The “Odra River Basin Flood Protection Project” implemented in 2007–2020, with a budget of USD 1.019 billion (The World Bank, Implementation Completion and Results Report, IBRD-74360, 2021);
- The “Odra-Vistula Flood Management Project” implemented in 2015–2023, with a budget of USD 1.317 billion (The World Bank, Project Appraisal Document, PAD1203, 2015).
- (i)
- flood levees with a total length of over 8600 km, mainly in first- and second-order rivers;
- (ii)
- flood water retention in storage reservoirs, which is one of the functions of multi-purpose reservoirs (about 100 reservoirs have a capacity greater than 1 million m3) (cf., https://www.gov.pl/web/premier/projekt-uchwaly-rady-ministrow-w-sprawie-przyjecia-programu-przeciwdzialania-niedoborowi-wody-na-lata-2022-2027-z-perspektywa-do-roku-2030 (accessed on 8 August 2023);
- (iii)
- dry reservoirs and river polders (of significantly lower storage value);
- (iv)
- development of streams and rivers, as well as stabilization of their channels (mainly in the south of Poland in the Upper Vistula and Upper Odra Basins).
- (i)
- protecting or increasing catchment retention in forested areas, in agricultural lands and in built-up and urbanized areas;
- (ii)
- development of local flood warning and response systems;
- (iii)
- extensive support for affected communities, mainly related to economic, technical, organizational and health support.
2.3. Challenge of Flash and Urban Floods
2.4. Synergy and Trade-Off between Flood and Drought Risk Reduction Measures
3. Results—Challenges in Flood Risk Management Policy
- (i)
- The plans contain too many specific measures, frequently small ones. Many of them come across as inapt and economically ineffective solutions. In this respect, it is important to follow an integrated approach to flood protection and protection of aquatic ecosystems, as well as to include measurability of the effects of FRMP implementation. The measurability may apply to the division of effects into limiting existing threats, preventing new threats and limiting negative effects of flooding.
- (ii)
- The methodology for preparing FRMPs [66] provides that the measures proposed for inclusion in the action plan should meet specific conditions. They should be adequate to the needs and objectives of flood risk reduction, being well thought out (determination of the location and parameters), well prepared (determination of the implementing agencies), as well as feasible for implementation (with guaranteed financing). They should also satisfactorily meet the economic efficiency criterion. Unfortunately, in many cases, the existing FRMPs do not meet one or more of these conditions. A significant part of the measures are not applicable to the problem areas characterized by the highest flood risk, while at the same time, less valuable areas are not sacrificed for the benefit of more valuable ones. Additionally, for many measures, the benefits that their implementation should bring are not defined. An important weakness of this methodology is also the lack of quantification of the impact of planned new water storage capacities on the flood risk downstream, taking into account flows from downstream tributaries.
- (iii)
- Finally, the FRMPs include many measures, which do not have much to do directly with flood risk reduction but are often linked to other objectives, such as improvement in inland navigation conditions, which has been vigorously promoted by the political group ruling the country since 2015.
- (i)
- When preparing FRMPs, it is important to control the impact of the implementation of measures on the achievement of the assumed goals, given the lack of continuity of databases, analyses and evaluations, and especially of economic efficiency.
- (ii)
- More nature-based solutions (NBSs) should be included, such as spreading of the flood embankments away from the river channel (e.g., on the River Odra) or use of oxbow lakes as part of polder retention, to effectively increase the storage capacity of the river valley. This applies primarily to the River Vistula, where the multi-channel system was not preserved in the process of regulation, and the high water bed was narrowed to a width corresponding to only 10–50% of the width of the natural valley [35].
- (i)
- It is necessary to develop strategies and local rainwater management plans not only in areas prone to flash and urban floods but in entire urban catchments in order to strengthen the preventive measures, as well as the economic tools and recommendations for their implementation. Good exemplary practices include the “Action plan to improve flood protection and drainage in the City of Krakow”, dated 2016, and the “Gdańsk Water Policy”, dated 2018. It is clear that this type of local approach must be adapted to local conditions. However, there are no general rules and requirements for these types of documents and their implementation.
- (ii)
- It is necessary to change the design principles of stormwater drainage systems based on a revised approach to heavy rainfall statistics, which are changing with climate change and the increasing levels of catchment sealing. These systems should also take into account the retention capacity of small urban watercourses and blue-green infrastructure. Such methods and tools have been developed in Poland as part of the PANDA project and are now widespread and accepted in a wide range of planning and design practices (https://retencja.pl/ (accessed on 8 August 2023). They should be recognized as official recommendations, reflected in standards.
- (iii)
- It is recommended to change the approach to land use planning and replace the principle of fast drainage (“from rain to drain”) through development of a “sponge city” [67,68] and decentralized rainwater runoff management based on the “source–pathway–receptor” approach [69,70], which incorporates the following measures:
- “at the source”—increase in the storage capacity, infiltration and use of rainwater where it falls across entire catchments in built-up areas, including private and public properties (it is necessary to urgently amend the Spatial Planning and Development Act and Building Law, as well as the provisions in local strategic and planning documents in Poland) and road infrastructure, allowing for temporary flooding of low-lying areas (short-term water storage should be incorporated into multi-functional land management, as well as land and infrastructure development), as well as the requirement for hydraulic neutrality (an unchanged surface runoff rate before and after an investment) of new private and public investments;
- “on the path”—departure from urban drainage systems in favor of retention systems; modeling and upgrading of underground networks and relieving these networks by connecting them to systems of open drainage ditches, canals, small watercourses and storage reservoirs, which would improve the flexibility of the system, the retention capacity and the possibility to control the flow of water based on stormwater runoff management plans;
- “in the receptor”—reduction in investments in areas at risk of local flooding in favor of increased storage space for water and the possibility to pre-treat stormwater runoff (e.g., via buffer parks) but also improvement in connectivity, biodiversity and recreation conditions. It is necessary to develop standards for land development and management in areas at risk of flooding, in combination with a flood insurance system. It is also recommended that the pollution load should not surpass the ability to maintain a good condition of the water bodies. In the coastal areas of rivers, which receive stormwater discharges, planning documents (within the range of the backwater impact of rivers) should take into account the conditions for the passage of river flood [50].
- (i)
- Introduction of the standard of protection and shaping greenery in investment processes;
- (ii)
- Legal empowerment of BGI;
- (iii)
- Managing water resources in the catchment system;
- (iv)
- Financial, legislative and organizational mechanisms benefiting an increase in natural retention;
- (v)
- Counteracting urban floods and droughts and the effects thereof with legislative changes;
- (vi)
- Introduction of the urban BGI management plan as the implementation of the recommendation to draw up a “greening plan” included in the EU Strategy for Biodiversity 2030.
4. Discussion
- (i)
- Preparation of a catalog of financial, legal and governance (competence, institutions) instruments necessary for an effective implementation of the planned flood risk reduction measures. The catalog of these instruments could take into account the areal integration of multi-type activities. In this way, effective and measurable areal effectiveness of the phased implementation of the planned flood risk reduction projects can be enhanced.
- (ii)
- In the years 2022–2025, for the purpose of updating the plans for 2028–2033, it is recommended to develop a flood risk assessment system in the field of pluvial floods, dominating in cities. Pluvial floods have not been included in the update of flood risk management plans for 2022–2027. This type of flooding may dominate in the future, as short-duration rainfall is more likely to exhibit greater increases [71]. Moreover, some heat waves, which are becoming more intense in cities, may culminate in heavy rainfall [72]. In the national dimension, it is urgent to identify the areas of potential threat and its sources, as well as the negative effects of flooding, and to develop a long-term forecasting system in order to reduce pluvial flood risk. Currently, and in the near future, cities are deprived of systemic support in this regard, especially under the conditions of simultaneous pluvial and fluvial flooding.
- (iii)
- In the update of the plans for 2028–2033, measures for reducing flood risk might be grouped within the boundaries of areas, enabling a realistic assessment of flood risk reduction as a result of the systemic implementation of projects reducing this risk. This applies in particular to areas prone to floods of various types. This could make it possible to move away from lists of separate (as well as difficult to grasp) and sometimes minor interventions in favor of a systemic spatially integrated grouping of them. This could also allow for effective prioritization of activities and staging of projects.
- (iv)
- A realistic approach for selecting structural measures might be possible, taking into account the real possibility of financing, which would concentrate the FRMPs for 2028–2033 on priority measures for flood protection in the Vistula and the Odra River Basins.
- (i)
- The integration of spatial planning with water management planning, including flood risk reduction, should be enhanced at all management levels, leading to long-awaited legislative amendments based on documented experience;
- (ii)
- The effectiveness of the implementation of the new National Urban Policy 2030, which recommends, among others, the creation of green and resilient cities, would require significant changes to the Spatial Planning and Development Act and the Construction Law to ensure legal empowerment for the protection and development of blue-green infrastructure;
- (iii)
- Plans for the development of multi-type water storage capacity in river basins should be prepared, taking into account the current conditions and development efforts and the impact of climate change, as well as land use and land cover changes, on flood hazard.
- (i)
- Strategic and regional studies conducted by the scientific and academic community, in cooperation with the administration and consultancy companies, seeking effective solutions in flood risk reduction;
- (ii)
- Continuous training of specialist personnel who deal with flood risk reduction, according to a well-thought-out system of life-long learning, including review of the curricula of higher education institutions.
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Abbreviations
BGI | Blue-Green Infrastructure |
BGS | Blue-Green Solutions |
EU | European Union |
FD | EU Floods Directive (Directive 2007/60/EC) |
FRMPs | Flood Risk Management Plans |
KZGW | National Water Management Authority in the structure of theNational Water Holding-Polish Waters (PGW-WP) |
NBSs | Nature-Based Solutions |
NGOs | Non-Government Organizations |
RBMPs | River Basin Management Plans (RBMPs) |
PGW-WP | National Water Holding-Polish Waters |
uFRMPs | Update of the Flood Risk Management Plans in the third planning cycle (2022–2027) |
uRBMPs | Updated River Basin Management Plans (RBMPs) |
WFD | EU Water Framework Directive (Directive 2000/60/EC) |
References
- Kundzewicz, Z.W.; Dobrowolski, A.; Lorenc, H.; Niedźwiedź, T.; Pińskwar, I.; Kowalczak, P. Floods in Poland. In Changes in Flood Risk in Europe; Kundzewicz, Z.W., Ed.; Special Publication No. 10; IAHS Press: Oxfordshire, UK, 2012; pp. 319–334. [Google Scholar]
- Kundzewicz, Z.W.; Pińskwar, I. Are Pluvial and Fluvial Floods on the Rise? Water 2022, 14, 2612. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- EU (European Union). Directive 2000/60/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 October 2000 on the establishing a framework for the Community action in the field of water policy. (Water Framework Directive, WFD). Off. J. Eur. Union 2000, L327, 1–73. [Google Scholar]
- EU. Directive 2007/60/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 October 2007 on the assessment and management of flood risks. (Floods Directive, FD). Off. J. Eur. Union 2007, L288, 27–34. [Google Scholar]
- Water Law. Prawo wodne. (Water Law) 2017, Journal of Laws of the Republic of Poland: Government of Republic of Poland. (In Polish)
- Kron, W.; Loew, P.; Kundzewicz, Z.W. Changes in risk of extreme weather events in Europe. Environ. Sci. Policy 2019, 100, 74–83. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Agard, J.; Schipper, E.L.F. Glossary. Annex II. In IPCC 2014: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; Field, C.B., Barros, V.R., Dokken, D.J., Mach, K.J., Mastrandrea, M.D., Bilir, T.E., Chatterjee, M., Ebi, K.L., Estrada, Y.O., Genova, R.C., Eds.; Annex II-Glossary (ipcc.ch); Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK; New York, NY, USA, 2014. [Google Scholar]
- Qiang, Y. Flood exposure of critical infrastructures in the United States. Int. J. Disaster Risk Reduct. 2019, 39, 101240. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Stefanidis, S.; Alexandridis, V.; Theodoridou, T. Flood Exposure of Residential Areas and Infrastructure in Greece. Hydrology 2022, 9, 145. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Kron, W.; Eichner, J.; Kundzewicz, Z.W. Reduction of flood risk in Europe-Reflections from a reinsurance perspective. J. Hydrol. 2019, 576, 197–209. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Lindenschmidt, K.-E.; Carstensen, D.; Fröhlich, W.; Hentschel, B.; Iwicki, S.; Kögel, M.; Kubicki, M.; Kundzewicz, Z.W.; Lauschke, C.; Łazarów, A.; et al. Development of an Ice Jam Flood Forecasting System for the Lower Oder River Requirements for Real-Time Predictions of Water, Ice and Sediment Transport. Water 2019, 11, 95. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Lindenschmidt, K.-E.; Alfredsen, K.; Carstensen, D.; Choryński, A.; Gustafsson, D.; Halicki, M.; Hentschel, B.; Karjalainen, N.; Kögel, M.; Kolerski, T.; et al. Assessing and Mitigating Ice-Jam Flood Hazards and Risks: A European Perspective. Water 2023, 15, 76. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Godyń, I.; Mączałowski, A.; Nachlik, E. Ocena i Przeciwdziałanie Zagrożeniu Powodziowemu; Flood Risk Assessment and Prevention; Seria: Inżynieria Środowiska; Politechnika Krakowska: Kraków, Poland, 2021; ISBN 978-83-66531-76-5. (In Polish) [Google Scholar]
- Cyberski, J.; Grześ, M.; Gutry-Korycka, M.; Nachlik, M.; Kundzewicz, Z.W. History of floods on the River Vistula. Hydrol. Sci. J. 2006, 51, 799–817. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Czaja, S.W.; Machowski, R.; Rzętała, M. Floods in the Upper Part of Vistula and Odra River Basins in the 19th and 20th Centuries/Floods in the Upper Part of the Vistula and Odra River Basins in the 19th and 20th Centuries. Chem. Didact. Ecol. Metrol. 2015, 19, 127–134. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Rudolf, B.; Rapp, J. The century flood of the River Elbe in August 2002: Synoptic weather development and climatological aspects. In Quarterly Report of the Operational NWP-Models of the Deutscher Wetterdienst; Deutscher Wetterdienst: Offenbach, Germany, 2003; pp. 7–22. [Google Scholar]
- Biedroń, I.; Bogdańska-Warmuz, R. Flood 2010—Analysis of Flood Losses and Damages in Poland. Gospod. Wodna 2012, 4, 147–153. (In Polish) [Google Scholar]
- Dubicki, A.; Słota, H.; Zieliński, J. Flood Monograph July 1997. The Odra River Basin; IMGW: Warszawa, Poland, 1999. (In Polish) [Google Scholar]
- Kundzewicz, Z.W.; Szamałek, K.; Kowalczak, P. The Great Flood of 1997 in Poland. Hydrol. Sci. J. 1999, 44, 855–870. [Google Scholar]
- Międzynarodowa Komisja Ochrony Odry przed Zanieczyszczeniami. Dorzecze Odry. Powódź 1997; Międzynarodowa Komisja Ochrony Odry Przed Zanieczyszczeniem: Wrocław, Poland, 1999. (In Polish) [Google Scholar]
- Pińskwar, I. Complex changes of extreme precipitation in the warming climate of Poland. Int. J. Climatol. 2022, 42, 817–833. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Piniewski, M.; Marcinkowski, P.; Kundzewicz, Z.W. Trend Detection in River Flow Indices in Poland. Acta Geophys. 2018, 66, 347–360. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Majewski, W. Urban flash flood in Gdańsk—2001. Case study. Meteorol. Hydrol. Water Manag. 2016, 4, 41–49. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Konieczny, R.; Pińskwar, I.; Kundzewicz, Z.W. Flood in Elbląg (Poland)–September 2017. Meteorol. Hydrol. Water Manag. 2018, 6, 67–78. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Pińskwar, I.; Kundzewicz, Z.W.; Choryński, P. Severe drought in the spring of 2020 in Poland—More of the same? Agronomy 2020, 10, 1646. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Skonieczna, M.; Hański, A.; Topiłko, J.; Barszczewska, M.; Wdowikowski, M. Urban Floods–Guilty Climate or Human? Gazeta Obserwatora IMGW. 2021. Available online: https://obserwator.imgw.pl/miejskie-powodzie-winny-klimat-czy-czlowiek/ (accessed on 8 August 2023). (In Polish).
- Łupikasza, E.B.; Małarzewski, Ł. Trends in the indices of precipitation phases under current warming in Poland, 1966–2020. Adv. Clim. Chang. Res. 2022, 14, 97–115. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Seneviratne, S.I.; Zhang, X.; Adnan, M.; Badi, W.; Dereczynski, C.; di Luca, A.; Ghosh, S.; Iskandar, I.; Kossin, J.; Lewis, S.; et al. Weather and Climate Extreme Events in a Changing Climate. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S.L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M.I., Eds.; Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK; New York, NY, USA, 2021; pp. 1513–1766. [Google Scholar]
- Kundzewicz, Z.W.; Krysanova, V.; Dankers, R.; Hirabayashi, Y.; Kanae, S.; Hattermann, F.F.; Huang, S.; Milly, P.C.D.; Stoffel, M.; Driessen, P.P.J.; et al. Differences in Flood Hazard Projections in Europe—Their Causes and Consequences for Decision Making. Hydrol. Sci. J. 2017, 62, 1–14. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Piniewski, M.; Szcześniak, M.; Kundzewicz, Z.W.; Mezghani, A.; Hov, Ø. Changes in low and high flows in the Vistula and the Odra basins: Model projections in the European-scale context. Hydrol. Process. 2017, 31, 2210–2225. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Kundzewicz, Z.W.; Szwed, M.; Pińskwar, I. Climate Variability and Floods—A Global Review. Water 2019, 11, 1399. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Nachlik, E.; Kostecki, S.; Gądek, W.; Stochmal, R. Flood Risk Zones; Biuro Koordynacji Projektu Banku Światowego: Wrocław, Poland, 2000. (In Polish) [Google Scholar]
- Nachlik, E.; Zaleski, J. Activities of the Government and Parliament after 1997 in the Field of Flood Protection; Ekspertyza nr OE-132; Kancelaria Senatu RP: Warsaw, Poland, 2011. (In Polish) [Google Scholar]
- Zaleski, J.; Winter, J. Program for the Odra River 2006. The Strategy of Modernization of the Odra River Water System; PWN: Warsaw-Wrocław, Poland, 2000. [Google Scholar]
- Bojarski, A.; Gręplowska, Z.; Nachlik, E.; Kondel, B.; Zaleski, J. Flood protection program in the upper Vistula basin—Origins and adopted solutions. Gospod. Wodna 2011, 10, 407–413. (In Polish) [Google Scholar]
- Graf, R. Flood Risk Management System in Poland. In Management of Water Resources in Poland; Zelenáková, M., Kubiak-Wójcicka, K., Negm, A.M., Eds.; Springer: Cham, Switzerland, 2021; Chapter 15. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- PGW Wody Polskie. Project of Updating the Flood Risk Management Plan in the Area of the Odra River Basin; Wody Polskie: Warsaw, Poland, 2021. Available online: https://powodz.gov.pl/pl/plan_view?id=6 (accessed on 8 August 2023). (In Polish)
- PGW Wody Polskie. Project of Updating the Flood Risk Management Plan in the Area of the Vistula River Basin; Wody Polskie: Warsaw, Poland, 2021. Available online: https://powodz.gov.pl/pl/plan_view?id=2 (accessed on 8 August 2023). (In Polish)
- Kundzewicz, Z.W.; Krysanova, V.; Benestad, R.E.; Hov, Ø.; Piniewski, M.; Otto, I.M. Uncertainty in climate change impacts on water resources. Environ. Sci. Policy 2018, 79, 1–8. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Kundzewicz, Z.W.; Licznar, P. Climate change adjustments in engineering design standards: European perspective. Water Policy 2021, 23, 85. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Nachlik, E.; Gerasimov, I. (Eds.) Water Management in Poland and Ukraine in Conditions of Development and Climate Change; Wydawnictwo Politechniki Krakowskiej: Kraków, Poland, 2022; ISBN 978-83-67188-32-6. [Google Scholar]
- Milly, P.C.D.; Betancourt, J.; Falkenmark, M.; Hirsch, R.M.; Kundzewicz, Z.W.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Stouffer, R.J. Stationarity is dead: Whither water management? Science 2008, 319, 573–574. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- Pieron, Ł.; Absalon, D.; Habel, M.; Matysik, M. Inventory of Reservoirs of Key Significance for Water Management in Poland—Evaluation of Changes in Their Capacity. Energies 2021, 14, 7951. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Kundzewicz, Z.W.; Hegger, D.L.T.; Matczak, P.; Driessen, P.P.J. Flood risk reduction: Structural measures and diverse strategies. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 2018, 115, 12321–12325. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed] [Green Version]
- Hegger, D.L.T.; Driessen, P.P.; Dieperink, C.; Wiering, M.; Raadgever, G.T.; van Rijswick, H.F. Assessing stability and dynamics in flood risk governance: An empirically illustrated research approach. Water Resour. Manag. 2014, 28, 4127–4142. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Januchta-Szostak, A. Eco-Hydrological Consequences of Urbanization and the Development of Riparian Areas. In Climate Change and Creative Solutions for Cities; Ressano Garcia, P., Nyka, L., Borucka, J., Szczepański, J., Eds.; Gdańsk University of Technology: Gdańsk, Poland, 2021; Chapter 3; pp. 53–60. Available online: http://sosclimatewaterfront.eu/sos/results (accessed on 8 August 2023).
- Magnuszewski, A. Flood Potential of Polish Rivers. In Management of Water Resources in Poland; Zelenáková, M., Kubiak-Wójcicka, K., Negm, A.M., Eds.; Springer: Cham, Switzerland, 2021; Chapter 14; pp. 269–281. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Konieczny, R.; Engel, J. Analysis of the “Draft Update of the Flood Risk Management Plan for the Odra River Basin”. Greenmind: Warsaw, Poland, 2021. Available online: https://greenmind.pl/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/aPZRP_Odra_analiza.pdf (accessed on 8 August 2023). (In Polish).
- Pińskwar, I.; Choryński, A.; Graczyk, D. Risk of Flash Floods in Urban and Rural Municipalities Triggered by Intense Precipitation in Wielkopolska of Poland. Int. J. Disaster Risk Sci. 2023, 14, 440–457. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Januchta-Szostak, A.; Banasik, K.; Chudziński, P.; Drzewiecki, S.; Hausner, J.; Jania, J.; Kundzewicz, Z.W.; Kutek, K.; Konieczny, R.; Licznar, P.; et al. Water Alert # 3—Water in Cities. 2020. Available online: https://oees.pl/alerty-eksperckie/ (accessed on 9 May 2022). (In Polish).
- Mencwel, J. Betonoza. (Concreteosis); Krytyka Polityczna: Warsaw, Poland, 2020. (In Polish) [Google Scholar]
- Jaszczak, A.; Pochodyła, E.; Płoszaj-Witkowska, B. Transformation of Green Areas in Central Squares after Revitalization: Evidence from Cittaslow Towns in Northeast Poland. Land 2022, 11, 470. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Brzezińska, A.; Sakson, G.; Zawilski, M. Predictive model of pollutant loads discharged by combined sewer overflows. Water Sci. Technol. 2018, 77, 1819–1828. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed] [Green Version]
- Puczko, K.; Jekatierynczuk-Rudczyk, E. Extreme hydro-meteorological events influence to water quality of small rivers in urban area: A case study in Northeast Poland. Sci. Rep. 2020, 10, 10255. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- Jha, A.K.; Bloch, R.; Lamond, J. Cities and Flooding: A Guide to Integrated Urban Flood Risk Management for the 21st Century; World Bank Publications: Washington, DC, USA, 2012. [Google Scholar]
- Ministry of Environment. Adaptation Plans to Climate Change for 44 Towns in Poland; The Ministry of Climate and Environment: Warsaw, Poland, 2018. Available online: https://www.gov.pl/web/klimat/mpa-44 (accessed on 8 August 2023). (In Polish)
- PGW Wody Polskie. Review and Update of the Preliminary Flood Risk Assessment; Environment Agency: Warsaw, Poland, 2018. (In Polish) [Google Scholar]
- Porębska, A.; Godyń, I.; Radzicki, K.; Nachlik, E.; Rizzi, P. Built heritage, sustainable development, and natural hazards: Flood protection and UNESCO world heritage site protection strategies in Krakow, Poland. Sustainability 2019, 11, 4886. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- McGrane, S.J. Impacts of urbanisation on hydrological and water quality dynamics, and urban water management: A review. Hydrol. Sci. J. 2016, 61, 2295–2311. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Guswa, A.J.; Brauman, K.A.; Brown, C.; Hamel, P.; Keeler, B.L.; Sayre, S.S. Ecosystem services: Challenges and opportunities for hydrologic modeling to support decision making. Water Resour. Res. 2014, 50, 4535–4544. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Krauze, K.; Wagner, I. From classical water-ecosystem theories to nature-based solutions—Contextualizing nature-based solutions for sustainable city. Sci. Total Environ. 2019, 655, 697–706. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Ward, P.J.; de Ruiter, M.C.; Mård, J.; Schröter, K.; Van Loon, A.; Veldkamp, T.; von Uexkull, N.; Wanders, N.; AghaKouchak, A.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K. The need to integrate flood and drought disaster risk reduction strategies. Water Secur. 2020, 11, 100070. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity. Voluntary Guidelines for the Design and Effective Implementation of Ecosystem-Based Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction and Supplementary Information; Technical Series No. 93. Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity: Montreal, QC, Canada, 2019; 156p. [Google Scholar]
- Pawlaczyk, P. (Ed.) Biedroń, I.; Brzoska, P.; Dondajewska-Pielka, R.; Furdyna, A.; Gołdyn, R.; Grygoruk, M.; Grześkowiak, A.; Horska-Schwarz, S.; Jusik, S.; et al. Handbook of good Practice in Surface Water Restoration; Państwowe Gospodarstwo Wodne Wody Polskie, Krajowy Zarząd Gospodarki Wodnej: Warsaw, Poland, 2020. (In Polish)
- Ministry of Development Funds and Regional Policy. National Urban Policy 2030 (KPM 2030); Ministry of Development Funds and Regional Policy: Warsaw, Poland, 2022.
- National Water Management Authority (KZGW). Methodology of Preparation of Maps of Flood Hazard and Maps of Flood Risk in Secong Planning Cycle, Version #7.00 2020, Warsaw, Poland. Available online: https://powodz.gov.pl/www/powodz/raporty_z_przegladu_2020/zal_1/!aMZPiMRP%20Raport%20Zal%201%20Metodyka%20RZEKI%2020200617%20v7.00%20pub.pdf (accessed on 24 November 2021). (In Polish)
- Xia, J.; Zhang, Y.; Xiong, L.; He, S.; Wang, L.; Yu, Z. Opportunities and challenges of the Sponge City construction related to urban water issues in China. Sci. China Earth Sci. 2017, 60, 652–658. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Januchta-Szostak, A. River-Friendly Cities. Peter Lang: Berlin, Germany; Bern, Switzerland; Bruxelles, Belgium; New York, NY, USA; Oxford, UK; Warsaw, Poland; Wien, Austria, 2020. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Ng, P.J.H.; Zheng, S. Water Security in the Face of Climate Change: Singapore’s Way. In Water Security under Climate Change; Springer: Singapore, 2022; pp. 21–32. [Google Scholar]
- Horrillo-Caraballo, J.M.; Reeve, D.E.; Simmonds, D.; Pan, S.; Fox, A.; Thompson, R.; Hoggart, S.; Kwan, S.S.H.; Greaves, D. Application of a source-pathway-receptor-consequence (SPRC) methodology to the Teign Estuary, UK. J. Coast. Res. 2013, 65, 1939–1944. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Fowler, H.J.; Lenderink, G.; Prein, P.; Westra, S.; Allan, R.P.; Ban, N.; Barbero, R.; Berg, P.; Blenkinsop, S.; Do, H.X.; et al. Anthropogenic intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes. Nat. Rev. Earth Environ. 2020, 2, 107–122. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- You, J.; Wang, S. Higher Probability of Occurrence of Hotter and Shorter Heat Waves Followed by Heavy Rainfall. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2021, 48, e2021GL094831. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Czaja, J. Hydrological effects of the hydraulic structures constructed in the valley of the River Little Vistula in Poland from the mid-18th century to the present. Environ. Socio-Econ. Stud. 2017, 5, 25–36. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
Town | Number of Interventions by Fire Brigades | Category of Threat | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Low | Local | Moderate | Large | Disastrous | ||
Elbląg | 178 (100) | 10 (6) | 165 (93) | 1 (0) | 2 (1) | 0 (0) |
Kalisz | 541 (100) | 17 (3) | 519 (96) | 4 (1) | 1 (0) | 0 (0) |
Konin | 225 (100) | 6 (3) | 218 (97) | 1 (0) | 0 (0) | 0 (0) |
Koszalin | 63 (100) | 8 (13) | 55 (87) | 0 (0) | 0 (0) | 0 (0) |
Kraków | 2211 (100) | 1435 (65) | 763 (35) | 8 (0) | 2 (0) | 3 (0) |
Olsztyn | 229 (100) | 19 (8) | 209 (91) | 1 (0) | 0 (0) | 0 (0) |
Poznań | 863 (100) | 75 (9) | 787 (91) | 1 (0) | 0 (0) | 0 (0) |
Rzeszów | 854 (100) | 27 (3) | 824 (96) | 3 (0) | 0 (0) | 0 (0) |
Warszawa | 3183 (100) | 1043 (33) | 2129 (67) | 10 (0) | 1 (0) | 0 (0) |
Zielona Góra | 417 (100) | 143 (34) | 272 (65) | 2 (0) | 0 (0) | 0 (0) |
# | Activity (Institutional Level of Implementation) | Main Metrics | Explanation |
---|---|---|---|
i | Develop and implement integrated, long-term flood and drought risk management policy in Poland (at all planning levels) | Reduction in the frequency of floods and droughts in relation to the frequency and spatial risk of precipitation excess and deficiency. | Synergy should be the basis for measures taken to mitigate the combined flood and drought risk, with cost optimization. Separate treatment of flood risk and drought risk in planning may lead to solutions, which “do not know about each other” and can be in conflict with each other (cf., Section 2.4). A solution aimed at flood reduction may create disbenefits for drought risk reduction and vice versa. By seeking a compromise, we may not solve any of these problems. |
ii | Include the “National Surface Water Renatu-ration Programme” in the River Basin Management Plans (at the national level in the planning system and the regional or local level in the implementation) | Assessment of the ecosystem functionality of rivers in sections of length, ensuring a real balance of its biological and economic functions. | River Basin Management Plans are basic documents implementing the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) [3], which are under preparation in Poland. Their implementation should take into account the requirements of the ecosystem functionality of the rivers they concern. |
iii | Prioritize drought and flood risk reduction measures (at all planning levels) | Cost–benefit ratio (taking into account environmental, social and economic benefits), measured on a spatial scale adequate for the extent of expected impacts and a time scale appropriate for balancing the costs and benefits. | Introduce an efficient system for prioritization of drought and flood risk reduction measures, a mechanism for their selection and the conditions for accepting them for implementation in order to enhance the efficiency and cost effectiveness of solutions. Only measures with an acceptable cost/benefit ratio should be included in planning analyses. |
iv | Upgrade urban planning documents (at regional and local levels) | Environmental performance measures included in the updated plans. | Include provisions in urban planning documents, which, apart from maintaining a minimum proportion of biologically active areas, will also ensure better conditions for the functioning of natural systems and support rainwater management in cities, including the following: preservation of the continuity of the natural system, restoration of species diversity and access to water by connecting green spaces with rainwater retention systems. |
v | Jointly treat the blue-green infrastructure in cities and their surroundings (at local level) | Measures of the impact of land use on water management and ecological efficiency. | Necessary cooperation of local governments and various entities responsible for water management and planning in order to ensure connectivity of the blue and green infrastructure in cities and their surroundings and in the region, including limiting unfavorable interactions between urban and non-urban areas, e.g., for flood risk, the risk of water deficit and over-exploitation of groundwater. |
vi | Plans for storage capacity of many types should be prepared for problem areas (at regional and local levels) | Measures of real assessment of the effectiveness of the planned retention at the scale of the area in relation to the expected retention functionality and the level of its effectiveness at the stages of its spatial and temporal implementation. | Improve the planning and implementation of water retention measures geared toward flood and drought risk reduction. Plans for the development of multi-type storage capacity should be prepared for problem areas, including the determination of monitoring cross-sections to balance the effects and assess the phased implementation of these plans. Such plans must be based on study documents, which take into account hydrological, hydrogeological and environmental conditions. They should define the development effort and determine the impact of climate change. |
Disclaimer/Publisher’s Note: The statements, opinions and data contained in all publications are solely those of the individual author(s) and contributor(s) and not of MDPI and/or the editor(s). MDPI and/or the editor(s) disclaim responsibility for any injury to people or property resulting from any ideas, methods, instructions or products referred to in the content. |
© 2023 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
Share and Cite
Kundzewicz, Z.W.; Januchta-Szostak, A.; Nachlik, E.; Pińskwar, I.; Zaleski, J. Challenges for Flood Risk Reduction in Poland’s Changing Climate. Water 2023, 15, 2912. https://doi.org/10.3390/w15162912
Kundzewicz ZW, Januchta-Szostak A, Nachlik E, Pińskwar I, Zaleski J. Challenges for Flood Risk Reduction in Poland’s Changing Climate. Water. 2023; 15(16):2912. https://doi.org/10.3390/w15162912
Chicago/Turabian StyleKundzewicz, Zbigniew W., Anna Januchta-Szostak, Elżbieta Nachlik, Iwona Pińskwar, and Janusz Zaleski. 2023. "Challenges for Flood Risk Reduction in Poland’s Changing Climate" Water 15, no. 16: 2912. https://doi.org/10.3390/w15162912