Next Article in Journal
Diclofenac Toxicity Abatement in Wastewater with Solar Disinfection: A Study in the Rural Area of Brazil’s Central−West Region
Previous Article in Journal
Fishways as Downstream Routes in Small Hydropower Plants: Experiences with a Potamodromous Cyprinid
Previous Article in Special Issue
Flood Inundation Assessment in the Low-Lying River Basin Considering Extreme Rainfall Impacts and Topographic Vulnerability
Article

Process-Based Modeling of the High Flow of a Semi-Mountain River under Current and Future Climatic Conditions: A Case Study of the Iya River (Eastern Siberia)

Water Problems Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, 119333 Moscow, Russia
Academic Editor: Luis Mediero
Water 2021, 13(8), 1042; https://doi.org/10.3390/w13081042
Received: 12 March 2021 / Revised: 5 April 2021 / Accepted: 8 April 2021 / Published: 10 April 2021
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Influence of Climate Change on Floods)
The purpose of the study was to analyze the formation conditions of catastrophic floods in the Iya River basin over the observation period, as well as a long-term forecast of the impacts of future climate change on the characteristics of the high flow in the 21st century. The semi-distributed process-based Ecological Model for Applied Geophysics (ECOMAG) was applied to the Iya River basin. Successful model testing results were obtained for daily discharge, annual peak discharge, and discharges exceeding the critical water level threshold over the multiyear period of 1970–2019. Modeling of the high flow of the Iya River was carried out according to a Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) of 0.91, a percent bias (PBIAS) of −1%, and a ratio of the root mean square error to the standard deviation of measured data (RSR) of 0.41. The preflood coefficient of water-saturated soil and the runoff coefficient of flood-forming precipitation in the Iya River basin were calculated in 1980, 1984, 2006, and 2019. Possible changes in the characteristics of high flow over summers in the 21st century were calculated using the atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) and the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2-Earth System (HadGEM2-ES) as the boundary conditions in the runoff generation model. Anomalies in values were estimated for the middle and end of the current century relative to the observed runoff over the period 1990–2019. According to various Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP-scenarios) of the future climate in the Iya River basin, there will be less change in the annual peak discharge or precipitation and more change in the hazardous flow and its duration, exceeding the critical water level threshold, at which residential buildings are flooded. View Full-Text
Keywords: runoff generation; process-based modeling; floods; the Iya River; the town of Tulun; change in maximum flow; the ECOMAG model; ISIMIP runoff generation; process-based modeling; floods; the Iya River; the town of Tulun; change in maximum flow; the ECOMAG model; ISIMIP
Show Figures

Figure 1

MDPI and ACS Style

Kalugin, A. Process-Based Modeling of the High Flow of a Semi-Mountain River under Current and Future Climatic Conditions: A Case Study of the Iya River (Eastern Siberia). Water 2021, 13, 1042. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13081042

AMA Style

Kalugin A. Process-Based Modeling of the High Flow of a Semi-Mountain River under Current and Future Climatic Conditions: A Case Study of the Iya River (Eastern Siberia). Water. 2021; 13(8):1042. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13081042

Chicago/Turabian Style

Kalugin, Andrey. 2021. "Process-Based Modeling of the High Flow of a Semi-Mountain River under Current and Future Climatic Conditions: A Case Study of the Iya River (Eastern Siberia)" Water 13, no. 8: 1042. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13081042

Find Other Styles
Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Article Access Map by Country/Region

1
Search more from Scilit
 
Search
Back to TopTop