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Open AccessArticle

Development of the Indus River System Model to Evaluate Reservoir Sedimentation Impacts on Water Security in Pakistan

1
CSIRO Land and Water, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
2
Ministry of Water Resources, Islamabad 44000, Pakistan
3
Irrigation Department, Government of Sindh, Karachi 74400, Pakistan
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Water 2021, 13(7), 895; https://doi.org/10.3390/w13070895
Received: 19 February 2021 / Revised: 19 March 2021 / Accepted: 23 March 2021 / Published: 25 March 2021
(This article belongs to the Section Water Resources Management, Policy and Governance)
Pakistan’s society and economy are highly dependent on the surface and groundwater resources of the Indus River basin. This paper describes the development and implementation of a daily Indus River System Model (IRSM) for the Pakistan Indus Basin Irrigation System (IBIS) to examine the potential impact of reservoir sedimentation on provincial water security. The model considers both the physical and management characteristics of the system. The model’s performance in replicating provincial allocation ratios is within 0.1% on average and the modeling of water flow at barrages and delivered to irrigation canal commands is in agreement with recorded data (major barrage NSE 0.7). The average maximum volumetric error for the Tarbela and Mangla reservoirs are respectively 5.2% and 8.8% of mean annual inflow. The model showed that a 2.3 km3 reduction in storage volume since 1990 equates to approximately 1.3 km3 i.e., a 4–5% reduction in irrigation deliveries, respectively, for Punjab and Sindh in the dry (Rabi) season. This decline indicates that without further augmentation of system storage, the Rabi season supplies will continue to be further impacted in the future. This paper demonstrates the suitability of IRSM for exploring long term planning and operational rules and the associated impacts on water, food and energy security in Pakistan. View Full-Text
Keywords: river basin management; water allocation; water-sharing; storage sedimentation; irrigation; IRSM river basin management; water allocation; water-sharing; storage sedimentation; irrigation; IRSM
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MDPI and ACS Style

Podger, G.M.; Ahmad, M.-u.-D.; Yu, Y.; Stewart, J.P.; Shah, S.M.M.A.; Khero, Z.I. Development of the Indus River System Model to Evaluate Reservoir Sedimentation Impacts on Water Security in Pakistan. Water 2021, 13, 895. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13070895

AMA Style

Podger GM, Ahmad M-u-D, Yu Y, Stewart JP, Shah SMMA, Khero ZI. Development of the Indus River System Model to Evaluate Reservoir Sedimentation Impacts on Water Security in Pakistan. Water. 2021; 13(7):895. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13070895

Chicago/Turabian Style

Podger, Geoffrey M.; Ahmad, Mobin-ud-Din; Yu, Yingying; Stewart, Joel P.; Shah, Syed M.M.A.; Khero, Zarif I. 2021. "Development of the Indus River System Model to Evaluate Reservoir Sedimentation Impacts on Water Security in Pakistan" Water 13, no. 7: 895. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13070895

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