- national level, in which long-term changes in floodplain population growth rate and proportion of floodplain population were evaluated for the contiguous US;
- state level, in which the relationship between floodplain population dynamics indicators and flood occurrence, flood damage, structural and nonstructural flood protection measures were evaluated for the state of Arkansas;
- county level, in which the relationships identified in the state-level analysis were further investigated for Sebastian county in Arkansas.
- how do floodplain population dynamics change when the analysis is downscaled from national to state to county levels in the US, from 1790 to 2010?
- What are the relationships between floodplain population dynamics and flood events, related damages, and flood protection measures in the selected study area?
2. Case Study and Data
3.1. National-Level Analysis
3.2. State-Level Analysis
3.3. County-Level Analysis
4. Results and Discussion
4.1. National-Level Analysis
4.1.1. Floodplain Population Growth Rate
4.1.2. Spatio-Temporal Pattern of Growth Rate of Floodplain Population
4.2. State-Level Analysis
4.2.1. Spatio-Temporal Pattern of Floodplain Population Ratio
4.2.2. Temporal Analysis between Floodplain Population Dynamics and Flooding Adaptation Measures
4.3. County-Level Analysis
4.4. Comparison between Spatial Scales
- Our long-term analysis shows that, at all spatial scales, populations settled down in floodplain areas when initially moving to a state or a county but moved outside floodplains over the years. As the floodplain population at the national scale homogenously spread within US territory, the centroid value of the GFP stabilized around the state of Arkansas and in the lower Mississippi river basin.
- The analysis of time-series of flood occurrence, flood damage, floodplain population and mitigation measures show active dynamics of local (structural) and national (nonstructural) responses to flooding. Floodplain population dynamics changed over time, in Arkansas and in particular in Sebastian county, where intense mitigation measures took place.
- analyzing, at the national level, population dynamics of flooded and non-flooded areas, to look at how the occurrence of flood events might contribute to shaping population dynamics in different locations;
- increasing the number of local case studies, at state and county levels, to acquire a broader perspective of local dynamics and to draw more general conclusions on floodplain dynamics over time;
- analyzing, at the local scale, performance of mitigation measures (i.e., looking at levee failure and number of flood insurance over time) on floodplain population dynamics.
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
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|1||Population data for the whole US||Raster|
(Res.: 1 km)
|2||Floodplain boundary of US||Raster|
(Res.: 250 m)
|3||Administrative boundary (Country, state, county)||Polygon Shape file||-|||
|4||River Shapefile (US)||Polyline||-|||
|5||Flood events||: 1953–2010|
|6||Structural intervention (Levee construction, related policy formulation) (1849–2010)||CSV||: 1849–1950|
|7||Flood insurance program||Official documents||1968–2005|||
|10||Flood damage data 1||PDF, CSV||1955–2010|
: State level
: County level
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