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Article

Relative Sea-Level Rise and Potential Submersion Risk for 2100 on 16 Coastal Plains of the Mediterranean Sea

1
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, 00143 Rome, Italy
2
ENEA, 40129 Bologna, 00123 Rome, Italy
3
Institute of Anthropic Impacts and Sustainability in Marine Environment—IAS CNR, 09170 Oristano, Italy
4
Studio Tecnico, 90142 Palermo, Italy
5
Department of Earth and Geoenvironmental Sciences, University of Bari, 70125 Bari, Italy
6
National Institute of Geopysics and Volcanomology, 00143 Rome, Italy
7
National Research Council, Institute of Marine Sciences (CNR-ISMAR), 30122 Venice, Italy
8
National Research Council, Institute of Polar Science (CNR-ISP), 30122 Venice, Italy
9
ISPRA, 00144 Roma, Italy
10
Department of Mathematics and Geosciences, University of Trieste, 34125 Trieste, Italy
11
Department of Mathematics, Pysics and Geosciences, MIFT, University of Messina, 98166 Messina, Italy
12
Studio Geologi Associati TST, 95129 Catania, Italy
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Water 2020, 12(8), 2173; https://doi.org/10.3390/w12082173
Received: 5 June 2020 / Revised: 10 July 2020 / Accepted: 29 July 2020 / Published: 1 August 2020
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Relative Sea-Level Changes and their Impact on Coastal Zones)
The coasts of the Mediterranean Sea are dynamic habitats in which human activities have been conducted for centuries and which feature micro-tidal environments with about 0.40 m of range. For this reason, human settlements are still concentrated along a narrow coastline strip, where any change in the sea level and coastal dynamics may impact anthropic activities. In the frame of the RITMARE and the Copernicus Projects, we analyzed light detection and ranging (LiDAR) and Copernicus Earth Observation data to provide estimates of potential marine submersion for 2100 for 16 small-sized coastal plains located in the Italian peninsula and four Mediterranean countries (France, Spain, Tunisia, Cyprus) all characterized by different geological, tectonic and morphological features. The objective of this multidisciplinary study is to provide the first maps of sea-level rise scenarios for 2100 for the IPCC RCP 8.5 and Rahmstorf (2007) projections for the above affected coastal zones, which are the locations of touristic resorts, railways, airports and heritage sites. On the basis of our model (eustatic projection for 2100, glaciohydrostasy values and tectonic vertical movement), we provide 16 high-definition submersion maps. We estimated a potential loss of land for the above areas of between about 148 km2 (IPCC-RCP8.5 scenario) and 192 km2 (Rahmstorf scenario), along a coastline length of about 400 km. View Full-Text
Keywords: Mediterranean Sea; coastal plains; relative sea-level rise; 2100; marine submersion Mediterranean Sea; coastal plains; relative sea-level rise; 2100; marine submersion
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    Description: S1 the map of Bastia, Tronto, Sangro, Pescara, Lesina, Briendisi, and Stagnone & Saline di Marsala, see Figure 1 for Location S2 a Uav mp4 film that documents some potetinal coastal areas to be flooded on 210.
MDPI and ACS Style

Antonioli, F.; De Falco, G.; Lo Presti, V.; Moretti, L.; Scardino, G.; Anzidei, M.; Bonaldo, D.; Carniel, S.; Leoni, G.; Furlani, S.; Marsico, A.; Petitta, M.; Randazzo, G.; Scicchitano, G.; Mastronuzzi, G. Relative Sea-Level Rise and Potential Submersion Risk for 2100 on 16 Coastal Plains of the Mediterranean Sea. Water 2020, 12, 2173. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12082173

AMA Style

Antonioli F, De Falco G, Lo Presti V, Moretti L, Scardino G, Anzidei M, Bonaldo D, Carniel S, Leoni G, Furlani S, Marsico A, Petitta M, Randazzo G, Scicchitano G, Mastronuzzi G. Relative Sea-Level Rise and Potential Submersion Risk for 2100 on 16 Coastal Plains of the Mediterranean Sea. Water. 2020; 12(8):2173. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12082173

Chicago/Turabian Style

Antonioli, Fabrizio, Giovanni De Falco, Valeria Lo Presti, Lorenzo Moretti, Giovanni Scardino, Marco Anzidei, Davide Bonaldo, Sandro Carniel, Gabriele Leoni, Stefano Furlani, Antonella Marsico, Marcello Petitta, Giovanni Randazzo, Giovanni Scicchitano, and Giuseppe Mastronuzzi. 2020. "Relative Sea-Level Rise and Potential Submersion Risk for 2100 on 16 Coastal Plains of the Mediterranean Sea" Water 12, no. 8: 2173. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12082173

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