Performance of a PDE-Based Hydrologic Model in a Flash Flood Modeling Framework in Sparsely-Gauged Catchments
1
Agrosphere Institute (IBG-3), Forschungszentrum Jülich, 52425 Jülich, Germany
2
Department of Meteorology, Institute for Geosciences, University of Bonn, 53115 Bonn, Germany
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Water 2020, 12(8), 2157; https://doi.org/10.3390/w12082157
Received: 24 June 2020
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Revised: 24 July 2020
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Accepted: 28 July 2020
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Published: 30 July 2020
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Advances in Flash Flood Forecasting)
Modeling and nowcasting of flash floods remains challenging, mainly due to uncertainty of high-resolution spatial and temporal precipitation estimates, missing discharge observations of affected catchments and limitations of commonly used hydrologic models. In this study, we present a framework for flash flood hind- and nowcasting using the partial differential equation (PDE)-based ParFlow hydrologic model forced with quantitative radar precipitation estimates and nowcasts for a small 18.5 km2 headwater catchment in Germany. In the framework, an uncalibrated probabilistic modeling approach is applied. It accounts for model input uncertainty by forcing the model with precipitation inputs from different sources, and accounts for model parameter uncertainty by perturbing two spatially uniform soil hydraulic parameters. Thus, sources of uncertainty are propagated through the model and represented in the results. To demonstrate the advantages of the proposed framework, a commonly used conceptual model was applied over the same catchment for comparison. Results show the framework to be robust, with the uncalibrated PDE-based model matching streamflow observations reasonably. The model lead time was further improved when forced with precipitation nowcasts. This study successfully demonstrates a parsimonious application of the PDE-based ParFlow model in a flash flood hindcasting and nowcasting framework, which is of interest in applications to poorly or ungauged watersheds.
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Keywords:
flash flood; nowcasting; hydrologic model; radar QPE
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MDPI and ACS Style
Poméon, T.; Wagner, N.; Furusho, C.; Kollet, S.; Reinoso-Rondinel, R. Performance of a PDE-Based Hydrologic Model in a Flash Flood Modeling Framework in Sparsely-Gauged Catchments. Water 2020, 12, 2157. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12082157
AMA Style
Poméon T, Wagner N, Furusho C, Kollet S, Reinoso-Rondinel R. Performance of a PDE-Based Hydrologic Model in a Flash Flood Modeling Framework in Sparsely-Gauged Catchments. Water. 2020; 12(8):2157. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12082157
Chicago/Turabian StylePoméon, Thomas, Niklas Wagner, Carina Furusho, Stefan Kollet, and Ricardo Reinoso-Rondinel. 2020. "Performance of a PDE-Based Hydrologic Model in a Flash Flood Modeling Framework in Sparsely-Gauged Catchments" Water 12, no. 8: 2157. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12082157
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