Climate Change Impacts on Reservoir Inflow in the Prairie Pothole Region: A Watershed Model Analysis
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. The Shellmouth Reservoir Watershed
2.2. Hydrological Model
2.3. SWAT Model Data Requirement
2.4. Experimental Setup
2.5. Model Calibration and Validation
2.6. Model Performance Evaluation Statistics
2.7. Future Climate Change Scenarios
3. Results
3.1. Model Computational Cost
3.2. Calibration and Validation
3.3. Future Climate Projections Relative to Baseline Period
3.4. Impact of Future Climate Change on Streamflow
3.4.1. Overall Flow Regime
3.4.2. Mean Monthly Streamflow
3.4.3. Seasonal Streamflow
4. Discussions
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Disclaimer
References
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Data Type | Application | Source | Reference |
---|---|---|---|
Land use | Land use properties | http://geogratis.gc.ca/ | [35] |
Soil type | Soil properties | http://www.agr.gc.ca/ | [40] |
Digital Elevation Model | Catchment delineation, channel slopes, and length | http://geogratis.gc.ca/ | [41] |
Reservoir feature | Fully supply level, storage capacity, surface area, etc. | https://www.gov.mb.ca/ | HFC-MI 1 |
Weather | Precipitation and temperature | https://weather.gc.ca/ | ECCC 2 |
NARR data | Wind speed, relative humidity, and solar radiation | ftp://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/NARR/ | [42] |
Climate change | Future climate change projections | https://na-cordex.org | [43] |
Streamflow | Model calibration and validation | https://wateroffice.ec.gc.ca/ | WSC 3 |
S. No | Station ID | Operator | Station Name | Latitude | Longitude |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Hydrometric Stations | |||||
1 | 05MC001 | WSC 1 | Assiniboine River at Sturgis | 51.94 | −102.54 |
2 | 05MB003 | WSC | Whitesand River near Canora | 51.63 | −102.36 |
3 | 05MD004 | WSC | Assiniboine River at Kamsack | 51.56 | −101.91 |
4 | 05MB001 | WSC | Yorkton creek near Ebenezer | 51.36 | −102.49 |
5 | 05MD005 | WSC | Shell River near Inglis | 50.96 | −101.31 |
6 | 05MD999 | HFC–MI 2 | Shellmouth reservoir inflow | 50.97 | −101.42 |
Meteorological Stations | |||||
1 | 5040FJ3 | CCN 3 | Cowan | 52.03 | −100.65 |
2 | 4013660 | CCN | Kelliher | 51.26 | −103.75 |
3 | 4014145 | CCN | Langenburg | 50.90 | −101.72 |
4 | 4085052 | CCN | Mckague 2 | 52.58 | −103.83 |
5 | 4086000 | ECCC 4 | Pelly | 52.08 | −101.87 |
6 | 4086001 | ECCC | Pelly 2 | 51.73 | −101.90 |
7 | 5012469 | ECCC | Roblin | 51.18 | −101.37 |
8 | 501B4G2 | CCN | Roblin Friesen 3 Northwest | 51.27 | −101.40 |
9 | 4019082 | ECCC | Tonkin | 51.20 | −102.23 |
10 | 4019073 | ECCC | Yorkton | 51.26 | −102.46 |
11 | 501KE01 | CCN | Rossburn 4 North | 50.75 | −100.82 |
Parameter | Parameter Range | Descriptions (Units, If Applicable) | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Min | Max | Fitted Value | ||
ALPHA_BF | 0.01 | 0.80 | 0.36 | Base flow alpha factor (days) |
GW_DELAY | 0.00 | 500.00 | 479.92 | Groundwater delays (days) |
GW_REVAP | 0.02 | 0.20 | 0.11 | Groundwater revap coefficient |
GWQMN | 0.00 | 5000.00 | 4978.00 | Threshold depth of water in the shallow aquifer required for return flow (mm) |
RCHRG_DP | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.15 | Deep aquifer percolation faction |
REVAPMN | 0.00 | 500.00 | 296.93 | Threshold depth of water in the shallow aquifer required for revap to occur (mm) |
CH_K1 | 0.00 | 150.00 | 21.26 | Effective hydraulic conductivity in tributary channel alluvium (mm h−1) |
CH_K2 | 0.00 | 150.00 | 108.35 | Effective hydraulic conductivity in main channel alluvium (mm h−1) |
CH_N1 | 0.01 | 0.30 | 0.17 | Manning’s N value for the tributary channel |
CH_N2 | 0.01 | 0.30 | 0.10 | Manning’s N value for the main channel |
CN2 a | −0.25 | 0.25 | −0.03 | SCS runoff curve number |
SOL_AWC a | −0.25 | 0.25 | −0.18 | Available water capacity (mm H2O mm−1) |
EPCO | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.58 | Plant uptake compensation factor |
ESCO | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.41 | Soil evaporation compensation factor |
TIMP | 0.01 | 1.00 | 0.18 | Snowpack temperature lag factor |
SFTMP | −3.00 | 3.00 | 0.06 | Snowfall temperature |
SMTMP | −3.00 | 3.00 | 0.41 | Snowmelt base temperature |
SMFMN | 0.00 | 10.00 | 1.71 | Melt factor for snow on winter solstice (mm c−1 day−1) |
SNOCOVMX | 5.00 | 500.00 | 174.86 | Minimum snow water content that corresponds to 100% snow cover (mm) |
SNO50COV | 0.05 | 0.80 | 0.21 | Snow water equivalent that corresponds to 50% snow cover (%) |
SMFMX | 0.00 | 10.00 | 8.18 | Maximum melt rate for snow on summer solstice (mm c−1 day−1) |
OV_N a | −0.20 | 0.20 | 0.56 | Manning’s N value for overland flow |
CH_L1 a | −1.00 | 1.00 | 0.44 | Longest tributary channel length in sub basin |
CH_W1 a | −1.00 | 1.00 | 0.16 | Average width of tributary channels (m) |
CH_L2 a | −1.00 | 1.00 | −0.31 | Length of main channel (m) |
CH_W2 a | −1.00 | 1.00 | 0.21 | Average width of main channel (m) |
WET_K | 0.00 | 3.60 | 0.33 | Hydraulic conductivity of bottom of wetland (mm h−1) |
Model Performance at Daily Time Step: Calibration (Validation) | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Station Code | Station Name | p-Factor | r-Factor | KGE | R2 | PBIAS |
05MC001 | Assiniboine River at Sturgis | 0.7 (0.7) | 0.6 (0.5) | 0.7 (0.6) | 0.6 (0.4) | 8.5 (1.3) |
05MD004 | Assiniboine River at Kamsack | 0.9 (0.8) | 0.5 (0.5) | 0.6 (0.7) | 0.6 (0.7) | −1.5 (−16.2) |
05MB999 | Shellmouth Reservoir inflow | 0.9 (0.8) | 0.6 (0.6) | 0.7 (0.7) | 0.8 (0.6) | 13.5 (−21.9) |
Scenario | 2030s (2011–2040) | 2050s (2041–2070) | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Precipitation (mm) | Temperature (°C) | Precipitation (mm) | Temperature (°C) | |
Baseline | 513.00 | 1.68 | 513.00 | 1.68 |
RCA4–RCP4.5 | 530.97 | 3.43 | 569.07 | 4.93 |
RCA4–RCP8.5 | 568.75 | 4.01 | 614.97 | 5.88 |
RCM5–RCP4.5 | 505.73 | 3.29 | 504.89 | 4.87 |
RCM5–RCP8.5 | 481.52 | 4.00 | 518.99 | 5.80 |
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Muhammad, A.; Evenson, G.R.; Unduche, F.; Stadnyk, T.A. Climate Change Impacts on Reservoir Inflow in the Prairie Pothole Region: A Watershed Model Analysis. Water 2020, 12, 271. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12010271
Muhammad A, Evenson GR, Unduche F, Stadnyk TA. Climate Change Impacts on Reservoir Inflow in the Prairie Pothole Region: A Watershed Model Analysis. Water. 2020; 12(1):271. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12010271
Chicago/Turabian StyleMuhammad, Ameer, Grey R. Evenson, Fisaha Unduche, and Tricia A. Stadnyk. 2020. "Climate Change Impacts on Reservoir Inflow in the Prairie Pothole Region: A Watershed Model Analysis" Water 12, no. 1: 271. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12010271