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Open AccessArticle

Extended-Range Runoff Forecasting Using a One-Way Coupled Climate–Hydrological Model: Case Studies of the Yiluo and Beijiang Rivers in China

1
National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
2
Wuhan Regional Climate Center, Wuhan 430074, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Water 2019, 11(6), 1150; https://doi.org/10.3390/w11061150
Received: 26 April 2019 / Revised: 24 May 2019 / Accepted: 28 May 2019 / Published: 31 May 2019
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate-Water-Ecosystem-Interaction)
Extended-range runoff forecasting is important for water resources management and energy planning. Experimental extended-range runoff was hindcasted, based on an extended-range climate model, developed by National Climate Center of the China Meteorological Administration, and semi-distributed hydrological model HBV-D. The skill of the runoff forecasts was explored using mean square skill score (MSSS), anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC), and areas under the relative operating characteristics curve (AUC) for three terciles for three experimental 51-day periods during flood season (June 1 to July 21, July 1 to August 20 and August 1 to September 20) for two rivers in China. The results revealed decreasing trends of the five indices, and varying length of the continuous longest skilful time slice from 3 days to 6 weeks depending on index, period and river location. In most cases, skilful abnormal terciles forecast occurred more often or with similar frequency to deterministic forecasts. It suggests that ensemble probability forecasting is a method with potential for extended-range river runoff forecast. Further, abnormal terciles are more skillful than normal terciles, and above normal are more skillful than below normal. In terms of a temporal mean of the MSSS and ACC, deterministic forecasts are skillful for both rivers in all three periods, but more skillful for the Beijiang River than for the Yiluo River in most cases. View Full-Text
Keywords: extended-range runoff forecast; DERF2.0; HBV; Yiluo River; Beijiang River extended-range runoff forecast; DERF2.0; HBV; Yiluo River; Beijiang River
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Liu, L.; Xiao, C.; Du, L.; Zhang, P.; Wang, G. Extended-Range Runoff Forecasting Using a One-Way Coupled Climate–Hydrological Model: Case Studies of the Yiluo and Beijiang Rivers in China. Water 2019, 11, 1150.

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