Assessment of Changes in Annual Maximum Precipitations in the Iberian Peninsula under Climate Change
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Base Data
2.2. Methodology
2.2.1. Comparison between Climate Model Simulations in the Control Period and Observations
2.2.2. Relative Changes in Maximum Precipitations Expected in the Future
2.2.3. Uncertainty Assessment on Delta Changes
3. Results
3.1. Comparison between Climate Model Simulations in the Control Period and Observations
3.2. Expected Changes in Precipitation Quantilesin the Future
3.3. Uncertainty of Delta Changes in Precipitation Quantiles
3.4. Spatial Layout of Significant Changes
4. Discussion and Conclusions
4.1. Model Biases
4.2. Uncertainty Thresholds
4.3. General and Significant Changes in Precipitation Quantiles
5. Patents
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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ID | Acronym | GCM | RCM | Simulation Periods (Control/Future) |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | ICH-CCL | ICHEC-EC-EARTH | CCLM4-8-17 | 1951–2005/2006–2100 |
2 | MPI-CCL | MPI-ESM-LR | CCLM4-8-17 | 1951–2005/2006–2100 |
3 | MOH-RAC | MOHC-HadGEM2-ES | RACMO22E | 1951–2005/2006–2099 |
4 | CNR-CCL | CNRM-CM5 | CCLM4-8-17 | 1951–2005/2006–2100 |
5 | ICH-RAC | ICHEC-EC-EARTH | RACMO22E | 1951–2005/2006–2100 |
6 | MOH-CCL | MOHC-HadGEM2-ES | CCLM4-8-17 | 1951–2005/2006–2099 |
7 | IPS-WRF | IPSL-CM5A-MR | WRF331F | 1951–2005/2006–2100 |
8 | IPS-RCA | IPSL-CM5A-MR | RCA4 | 1971–2005/2006–2100 |
9 | MOH-RCA | MOHC-HadGEM2-ES | RCA4 | 1971–2005/2006–2099 |
10 | ICH-RCA | ICHEC-EC-EARTH | RCA4 | 1971–2005/2006–2100 |
11 | CNR-RCA | CNRM-CM5 | RCA4 | 1971–2005/2006–2100 |
12 | MPI-RCA | MPI-ESM-LR | RCA4 | 1971–2005/2006–2100 |
Statistic | Abbreviation |
---|---|
Mean | Mean |
Coefficient of variation | CV |
Coefficient of skewness | CS |
Mean of AMS | MeanMax |
Coefficient of variation of AMS | CVMax |
Coefficient of skewness of AMS | CSMax |
RCP | 4.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Return Period | 2 | 5 | 10 | 50 | 100 | 500 | 1000 | ||||||||||||||
Future Time Interval | 11–40 | 41–70 | 71–95 | 11–40 | 41–70 | 71–95 | 11–40 | 41–70 | 71–95 | 11–40 | 41–70 | 71–95 | 11–40 | 41–70 | 71–95 | 11–40 | 41–70 | 71–95 | 11–40 | 41–70 | 71–95 |
Upper Mediterranean Basins | + | + | + | + | + | + | +/− | + | + | + | + | + | + | + | + | ||||||
EbroRiver Basin | +/− | +/− | + | +/− | +/− | + | +/− | +/− | + | +/− | +/− | +/− | +/− | +/− | +/− | +/− | +/− | − | +/− | +/− | |
Northern Basins | − | − | + | + | + | + | + | + | +/− | +/− | + | +/− | + | ||||||||
Northwestern Basins and Miño-Sil River Basin | + | + | + | + | + | + | + | + | + | + | + | + | + | − | + | − | + | ||||
Douro River Basin | + | + | + | + | + | + | + | + | + | + | +/− | + | + | +/− | + | +/− | +/− | + | +/− | +/− | + |
Tagus River Basin | + | + | + | + | +/− | + | +/− | − | + | − | − | +/− | − | − | +/− | − | − | − | |||
Atlantic Basins | + | + | +/− | + | +/− | + | − | − | |||||||||||||
Guadiana River Basin | − | − | + | +/− | + | +/− | + | + | + | + | +/− | + | +/− | +/− | + | +/− | + | + | +/− | ||
Guadalquivir River Basin | − | +/− | + | +/− | + | +/− | + | + | +/− | + | + | + | + | − | + | + | − | + | + | ||
Southern Basins | − | − | − | − | − | − | − | +/− | − | − | − | − | − | − | − | − | |||||
Segura and Jucar River Basins | − | +/− | +/− | − | + | + | − | + | + | − | + | + | + | + | +/− | + | +/− | − | + | +/− | |
Mediterranean Basins | − | − | − | + | + | +/− | + | − | + | +/− | + | ||||||||||
Balearic Islands | − | + | − | + | + | + | +/− | + | +/− | +/− | + | +/− | + |
RCP | 8.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Return Period | 2 | 5 | 10 | 50 | 100 | 500 | 1000 | ||||||||||||||
Future Time Interval | 11–40 | 41–70 | 71–95 | 11–40 | 41–70 | 71–95 | 11–40 | 41–70 | 71–95 | 11–40 | 41–70 | 71–95 | 11–40 | 41–70 | 71–95 | 11–40 | 41–70 | 71–95 | 11–40 | 41–70 | 71–95 |
Upper Mediterranean Basins | + | + | + | + | + | + | + | + | + | + | + | + | + | + | +/− | + | + | + | + | ||
EbroRiver Basin | +/− | + | +/− | +/− | + | + | +/− | + | + | +/− | + | + | +/− | + | +/− | +/− | +/− | +/− | − | +/− | +/− |
Northern Basins | − | +/− | +/− | +/− | + | +/− | +/− | + | + | +/− | +/− | + | +/− | + | |||||||
Northwestern Basins and Miño-Sil River Basin | + | + | + | + | + | + | + | + | + | +/− | + | + | +/− | + | + | +/− | +/− | + | +/− | +/− | + |
Douro River Basin | + | + | + | + | + | + | + | + | + | + | + | + | + | + | + | +/− | +/− | + | + | +/− | + |
Tagus River Basin | + | +/− | + | + | + | +/− | + | − | +/− | +/− | − | − | +/− | − | − | +/− | − | − | +/− | ||
Atlantic Basins | +/− | +/− | +/− | +/− | +/− | + | + | +/− | + | + | + | + | − | + | + | − | + | ||||
Guadiana River Basin | − | − | +/− | + | +/− | +/− | + | +/− | + | + | +/− | + | + | +/− | + | + | +/− | + | + | ||
Guadalquivir River Basin | − | − | +/− | − | + | +/− | − | + | +/− | − | + | − | − | + | +/− | − | + | − | − | + | |
Southern Basins | − | − | − | − | − | − | − | − | +/− | +/− | − | +/− | − | +/− | +/− | − | − | ||||
Segura and Jucar River Basins | + | +/− | +/− | + | +/− | +/− | + | + | +/− | + | + | + | +/− | + | + | +/− | + | +/− | + | ||
Mediterranean Basins | + | +/− | + | +/− | +/− | + | +/− | +/− | + | +/− | +/− | + | +/− | +/− | + | +/− | +/− | ||||
Balearic Islands | + | − | + | + | + | + | + | + | +/− | + | + | +/− | + | + | +/− | + | + | + | + |
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Garijo, C.; Mediero, L. Assessment of Changes in Annual Maximum Precipitations in the Iberian Peninsula under Climate Change. Water 2019, 11, 2375. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11112375
Garijo C, Mediero L. Assessment of Changes in Annual Maximum Precipitations in the Iberian Peninsula under Climate Change. Water. 2019; 11(11):2375. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11112375
Chicago/Turabian StyleGarijo, Carlos, and Luis Mediero. 2019. "Assessment of Changes in Annual Maximum Precipitations in the Iberian Peninsula under Climate Change" Water 11, no. 11: 2375. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11112375