Simulation of Climate Change Impact on A Coastal Aquifer under Arid Climate. The Tadjourah Aquifer (Republic of Djibouti, Horn of Africa)
Abstract
:1. Introduction
- -
- simulate rainfall series up to 2100 at the scale of RoD using climate scenarios made available by IPCC;
- -
- deduce groundwater recharge based on the simulated rainfall series;
- -
- model the studied aquifer, using the recharge series as the input;
- -
- analyze the aquifer reaction to the climate scenarios.
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Area
2.1.1. Geological Setting
2.1.2. Hydrography
2.1.3. Hydrogeology
2.1.4. Exploitation of the Aquifer
2.1.5. Meteorological Data
2.2. Climate Change Scenarios
2.3. The SEAWAT Software
3. Results and Discussions
3.1. Conceptual Model of the Aquifer
3.2. Calculation of the Equilibrium State
3.3. Simulation of Climate Change Impact up to 2100 under RCP Scenarios 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5.
4. Summary and Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A. Calibration of the Model
Determination Coefficient | Mean Error (m) | Mean Absolute Error (m) | Root Mean Square Error (m) |
---|---|---|---|
0.94 | 0.16 | 0.45 | 0.54 |
Appendix B. Simulation of Climate Change Impact up to 2100 under RCP Scenario 4.5
Appendix C. Simulation of Climate Change Impact up to 2100 under RCP Scenario 8.5
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Component (m3/year) | Inflow | Outflow |
---|---|---|
Surficial Recharge | 4.5 × 105–6.5 × 105 | -- |
Seashore | ? | ? |
Upstream Limit with Mount Goda | 1.8 × 106–2.7 × 106 | -- |
Well | T (m2/d) | K (m/d) |
---|---|---|
PK6 | 216 | 1.1 |
PK9 | 605 | 3.0 |
Min (mm) | Max (mm) | Average (mm) | SD (mm) | CV (%) | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Whole series 1961–2014 | 3 | 481 | 146 | 122 | 84 |
Subseries 1961–2006 | 3 | 481 | 156 | 121 | 77 |
Subseries 2007–2014 | 3 | 89 | 44 | 28 | 65 |
Scenario | RCP 2.6 | RCP 4.5 | RCP 8.5 |
---|---|---|---|
Average (mm) CI (95%) | 243.7 224 < m < 263 | 245.3 224 < m < 265 | 263.8 242 < m < 285 |
Minimum (mm) | 91.7 | 102.2 | 111.3 |
Maximum (mm) | 841.2 | 758.8 | 716.3 |
SD (mm) | 100.6 | 105.1 | 108.9 |
CV (%) | 41.3 | 42.8 | 41.3 |
Component (m3/year) | Inflow | Outflow | Inflow−Outflow |
---|---|---|---|
Surficial Recharge | 6.48 × 105 | 6.48 × 105 | |
Limit corresponding to the sea | 1.41 × 106 | 4.27 × 106 | −2.86 × 106 |
Upstream Limit with Mount Goda | 2.26 × 106 | 2.26 × 106 | |
Storage | 4.88 × 102 | 1.42 × 104 | −1.37 × 104 |
TOTAL | 4.32 × 106 | 4.29 × 106 | 3.14 × 104 |
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Razack, M.; Jalludin, M.; Houmed-Gaba, A. Simulation of Climate Change Impact on A Coastal Aquifer under Arid Climate. The Tadjourah Aquifer (Republic of Djibouti, Horn of Africa). Water 2019, 11, 2347. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11112347
Razack M, Jalludin M, Houmed-Gaba A. Simulation of Climate Change Impact on A Coastal Aquifer under Arid Climate. The Tadjourah Aquifer (Republic of Djibouti, Horn of Africa). Water. 2019; 11(11):2347. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11112347
Chicago/Turabian StyleRazack, Moumtaz, Mohamed Jalludin, and Abdourahman Houmed-Gaba. 2019. "Simulation of Climate Change Impact on A Coastal Aquifer under Arid Climate. The Tadjourah Aquifer (Republic of Djibouti, Horn of Africa)" Water 11, no. 11: 2347. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11112347