Next Article in Journal
Reconstruction of Seasonal Net Erosion in a Mediterranean Landscape (Alento River Basin, Southern Italy) over the Past Five Decades
Previous Article in Journal
Is Flood Irrigation a Potential Driver of River-Groundwater Interactions and Diffuse Nitrate Pollution in Agricultural Watersheds?
Previous Article in Special Issue
Risk Evaluation Model of Life Loss Caused by Dam-Break Flood and Its Application
Open AccessArticle

Risk Analysis of Earth-Rock Dam Breach Based on Dynamic Bayesian Network

by Zongkun Li 1,2, Te Wang 1, Wei Ge 1,3,*, Dong Wei 1 and Hanyu Li 1
1
School of Water Conservancy Engineering, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China
2
School of Software, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450002, China
3
Safety and Security Science Group (S3 G), Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, 2628 BX Delft, The Netherlands
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Water 2019, 11(11), 2305; https://doi.org/10.3390/w11112305
Received: 27 September 2019 / Revised: 26 October 2019 / Accepted: 31 October 2019 / Published: 3 November 2019
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Research on Mathematical Models of Floods)
Despite the fact that the Bayesian network has great advantages in logical reasoning and calculation compared with the other traditional risk analysis methods, there are still obvious shortcomings in the study of dynamic risk. The risk factors of the earth-rock dam breach are complex, which vary with time during the operation period. Static risk analysis, limited to a specific period of time, cannot meet the needs of comprehensive assessment and early warning. By introducing time factors, a dynamic Bayesian network model was established to study the dynamic characteristics of dam-breach probability. Combined with the calculation of the conditional probability of nodes based on the Leaky Noisy-Or gate extended model, the reasoning results of Bayesian networks were modified by updating the data of different time nodes. Taking an earth-rock dam as an example, the results show that it has less possibility to breach and keep stable along the time axis. Moreover, the factors with vulnerability and instability were found effective, which could provide guidance for dam risk management.
Keywords: dynamic Bayesian network; dam breach; conditional probability; earth-rock dam; risk dynamic Bayesian network; dam breach; conditional probability; earth-rock dam; risk
MDPI and ACS Style

Li, Z.; Wang, T.; Ge, W.; Wei, D.; Li, H. Risk Analysis of Earth-Rock Dam Breach Based on Dynamic Bayesian Network. Water 2019, 11, 2305.

Show more citation formats Show less citations formats
Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Article Access Map by Country/Region

1
Back to TopTop