Next Article in Journal
Sorption Properties of the Bottom Sediment of a Lake Restored by Phosphorus Inactivation Method 15 Years after the Termination of Lake Restoration Procedures
Previous Article in Journal
Filtration of Uncharged Solutes: An Assessment of Steric Effect by Transport and Adsorption Modelling
Article

Variations of Drought Tendency, Frequency, and Characteristics and Their Responses to Climate Change under CMIP5 RCP Scenarios in Huai River Basin, China

1
Department of Agriculture and Water Resources Engineering, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225009, China
2
Department of Water Conservancy and Port Engineering, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225009, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Water 2019, 11(10), 2174; https://doi.org/10.3390/w11102174
Received: 22 September 2019 / Revised: 16 October 2019 / Accepted: 17 October 2019 / Published: 19 October 2019
(This article belongs to the Section Water Use and Scarcity)
Huai River Basin (HRB) is an important food and industrial production area and a frequently drought-affected basin in eastern China. It is necessary to consider the future drought development for reducing the impact of drought disasters. Three global circulation models (GCMs) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), such as CNRM-CM5 (CNR), HadGEM2-ES (Had) and MIROC5 (MIR), were used to assessment the future drought conditions under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios, namely, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), statistical method, Mann-Kendall test, and run theory were carried out to study the variations of drought tendency, frequency, and characteristics and their responses to climate change. The research showed that the three CMIP5 models differ in describing the future seasonal and annual variations of precipitation and temperature in the basin and thus lead to the differences in describing drought trends, frequency, and drought characteristics, such as drought severity, drought duration, and drought intensity. However, the drought trend, frequency, and characteristics in the future are more serious than the history. The drought frequency and characteristics tend to be strengthened under the scenario of high concentration of RCP8.5, and the drought trend is larger than that of low concentration of RCP4.5. The lower precipitation and the higher temperature are the main factors affecting the occurrence of drought. All three CMIP5 models show that precipitation would increase in the future, but it could not offset the evapotranspiration loss caused by significant temperature rise. The serious risk of drought in the future is still higher. Considering the uncertainty of climate models for simulation and prediction, attention should be paid to distinguish the effects of different models in the future drought assessment. View Full-Text
Keywords: drought; climate change; standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index; mann-kendall test; run theory; CMIP5 drought; climate change; standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index; mann-kendall test; run theory; CMIP5
Show Figures

Figure 1

MDPI and ACS Style

Wang, J.; Lin, H.; Huang, J.; Jiang, C.; Xie, Y.; Zhou, M. Variations of Drought Tendency, Frequency, and Characteristics and Their Responses to Climate Change under CMIP5 RCP Scenarios in Huai River Basin, China. Water 2019, 11, 2174. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11102174

AMA Style

Wang J, Lin H, Huang J, Jiang C, Xie Y, Zhou M. Variations of Drought Tendency, Frequency, and Characteristics and Their Responses to Climate Change under CMIP5 RCP Scenarios in Huai River Basin, China. Water. 2019; 11(10):2174. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11102174

Chicago/Turabian Style

Wang, Jingcai; Lin, Hui; Huang, Jinbai; Jiang, Chenjuan; Xie, Yangyang; Zhou, Mingyao. 2019. "Variations of Drought Tendency, Frequency, and Characteristics and Their Responses to Climate Change under CMIP5 RCP Scenarios in Huai River Basin, China" Water 11, no. 10: 2174. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11102174

Find Other Styles
Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Article Access Map by Country/Region

1
Search more from Scilit
 
Search
Back to TopTop