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Atmosphere 2018, 9(10), 378; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos9100378

Sensitivity Study of WRF Numerical Modeling for Forecasting Heavy Rainfall in Sri Lanka

1
Department of Meteorology, Colombo 00700, Sri Lanka
2
Department of Mathematics, Pusan National University, Pusan 46241, Korea
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 14 July 2018 / Revised: 19 September 2018 / Accepted: 23 September 2018 / Published: 28 September 2018
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Precipitation: Measurement and Modeling)
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Abstract

This study aimed to determine the predictability of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with different model physics options to identify the best set of physics parameters for predicting heavy rainfall events during the southwest and northeast monsoon seasons. Two case studies were used for the evaluation: heavy precipitation during the southwest monsoon associated with the simultaneous onset of the monsoon, and a low pressure system over the southwest Bay of Bengal that produced heavy rain over most of the country, with heavy precipitation associated with the northeast monsoon associated with monsoon flow and easterly disturbances. The modeling results showed large variation in the rainfall estimated by the model using the various model physics schemes, but several corresponding rainfall simulations were produced with spatial distribution aligned with rainfall station data, although the amount was not estimated accurately. Moreover, the WRF model was able to capture the rainfall patterns of these events in Sri Lanka, suggesting that the model has potential for operational use in numerical weather prediction in Sri Lanka. View Full-Text
Keywords: heavy rainfall; SW monsoon; NW monsoon; statistical skill scores; WRF model; Sri Lanka heavy rainfall; SW monsoon; NW monsoon; statistical skill scores; WRF model; Sri Lanka
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Rodrigo, C.; Kim, S.; Jung, I.H. Sensitivity Study of WRF Numerical Modeling for Forecasting Heavy Rainfall in Sri Lanka. Atmosphere 2018, 9, 378.

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