Next Article in Journal
Urbanization Changes the Composition of Airborne Fungi and Increases the Proportion of Fungal Allergens—A Case Study in Shanghai, China
Previous Article in Journal
Multifractal Measures and Singularity Analysis of Rainfall Time Series in the Semi-Arid Central Mexican Plateau
 
 
Search for Articles:
Title / Keyword
Author / Affiliation / Email
Journal
Article Type
 
 
Advanced Search
 
Section
Special Issue
Volume
Issue
Number
Page
 
Journals
Atmosphere
Volume 16
Issue 6
10.3390/atmos16060640
atmosphere-logo
Submit to this Journal Review for this Journal Propose a Special Issue
► Article Menu

Article Menu

share Share announcement Help format_quote Cite
first_page
settings
Order Article Reprints
Font Type:
Arial Georgia Verdana
Font Size:
Aa Aa Aa
Line Spacing:
Column Width:
Background:
This is an early access version, the complete PDF, HTML, and XML versions will be available soon.
Article

The Evolution of Runoff Processes in the Source Region of the Yangtze River Under Future Climate Change

by
Nana Zhang
1,2,
Peng Jiang
1,2,3,*,
Bin Yang
3,4,
Changhai Tan
3,4,
Wence Sun
1,2,
Qin Ju
1,2,
Simin Qu
1,2,
Kunqi Ding
1,2,
Jingjing Qin
1,2 and
Zhongbo Yu
1,2
1
College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
2
The National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
3
Middle Yarlung Zangbo River Natural Resources Observation and Research Station of Tibet Autonomous Region, Lhasa 850013, China
4
Research Center of Applied Geology of China Geological Survey, Chengdu 610036, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Atmosphere 2025, 16(6), 640; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16060640 (registering DOI)
Submission received: 28 March 2025 / Revised: 19 May 2025 / Accepted: 23 May 2025 / Published: 24 May 2025
(This article belongs to the Section Climatology)
Versions Notes

Abstract

Climate change has intensified the melting of glaciers and permafrost in high-altitude cold regions, leading to more frequent extreme hydrological events. This has caused significant variations in the spatiotemporal distribution of meltwater runoff from the headwater cryosphere, posing a major challenge to regional water security. In this study, the HBV hydrological model was set up and driven by CMIP6 global climate model outputs to investigate the multi-scale temporal variations of runoff under different climate change scenarios in the Tuotuo River Basin (TRB) within the source region of the Yangtze River (SRYR). The results suggest that the TRB will undergo significant warming and wetting in the future, with increasing precipitation primarily occurring from May to October and a notable rise in annual temperature. Both temperature and precipitation trends intensify under more extreme climate scenarios. Under all climate scenarios, annual runoff generally exhibits an upward trend, except under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, where a slight decline in total runoff is projected for the late 21st century (2061–2090). The increase in total runoff is primarily concentrated between May and October, driven by enhanced rainfall and meltwater contributions, while snowmelt runoff also shows an increase, but accounts for a smaller percentage of the total runoff and has a smaller impact on the total runoff. Precipitation is the primary driver of annual runoff depth changes, with temperature effects varying by scenario and period. Under high emissions, intensified warming and glacier melt amplify runoff, while low emissions show stable warming with precipitation dominating runoff changes.
Keywords: CMIP6; runoff changes; climate change; TRB CMIP6; runoff changes; climate change; TRB

Share and Cite

MDPI and ACS Style

Zhang, N.; Jiang, P.; Yang, B.; Tan, C.; Sun, W.; Ju, Q.; Qu, S.; Ding, K.; Qin, J.; Yu, Z. The Evolution of Runoff Processes in the Source Region of the Yangtze River Under Future Climate Change. Atmosphere 2025, 16, 640. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16060640

AMA Style

Zhang N, Jiang P, Yang B, Tan C, Sun W, Ju Q, Qu S, Ding K, Qin J, Yu Z. The Evolution of Runoff Processes in the Source Region of the Yangtze River Under Future Climate Change. Atmosphere. 2025; 16(6):640. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16060640

Chicago/Turabian Style

Zhang, Nana, Peng Jiang, Bin Yang, Changhai Tan, Wence Sun, Qin Ju, Simin Qu, Kunqi Ding, Jingjing Qin, and Zhongbo Yu. 2025. "The Evolution of Runoff Processes in the Source Region of the Yangtze River Under Future Climate Change" Atmosphere 16, no. 6: 640. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16060640

APA Style

Zhang, N., Jiang, P., Yang, B., Tan, C., Sun, W., Ju, Q., Qu, S., Ding, K., Qin, J., & Yu, Z. (2025). The Evolution of Runoff Processes in the Source Region of the Yangtze River Under Future Climate Change. Atmosphere, 16(6), 640. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16060640

Note that from the first issue of 2016, this journal uses article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Article Metrics

Back to TopTop