Climate Change Impacts on Maximum Aviation Payloads of Chinese Airports
Abstract
:1. Introduction
- (1)
- Quantify the impacts of climate change on maximum aviation payloads across Chinese airports by comprehensively analyzing both temperature and pressure changes under the high-concentration SSP5-8.5 scenario.
- (2)
- Analyze how topographical context modulates these impacts by comparing three distinct elevation categories—high-plateau, plateau, and plain airports—thereby revealing the spatial heterogeneity of climate change vulnerabilities across China’s aviation network.
- (3)
- Evaluate the mechanisms through which temperature and pressure changes interact to produce elevation-dependent outcomes for aviation payload capacities, providing insights for targeted adaptation strategies.
2. Data and Methodology
2.1. Data
- (1)
- Climate Projections: We employ SAT and SAP data from 29 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models (Table 1) [18]. These fully coupled global climate models have typical horizontal resolutions ranging from approximately 0.5° to 1.5° (~50–150 km) and temporal output frequencies from three-hourly to daily. They represent state-of-the-art climate simulations with enhanced capabilities and climate sensitivity compared to their CMIP5 predecessors [19,20]. The CMIP6 multi-model ensemble mean exhibits cold biases over most regions of China, particularly in the Tibetan Plateau [21,22], but these temperature biases are generally within ±1 °C for most regions and do not significantly affect our air-density dependent analyses. The multi-model ensemble approach effectively reduces individual model uncertainties. We analyze projections under both historical and high-concentration SSP5-8.5 scenarios, focusing on two time periods: 1995–2014 (current climate) and 2081–2100 (late 21st-century climate).
- (2)
- Topographical Data: Terrain elevation information is derived from the ETOPO1 dataset, which provides 1 arc-minute resolution global relief data [23]. This high-resolution topographical information enables detailed mapping of elevation-dependent climate impacts across China’s complex terrain.
- (3)
- Airport Information: Locations and operational data for 184 major city transport airports across China, categorized according to Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) regulations into high-plateau (elevation >2438 m), plateau (1500–2438 m), and plain airports (<1500 m).
2.2. Methodology
- (1)
- Temperature-only effect: Calculate air density using projected future temperatures combined with historical baseline pressures.
- (2)
- Pressure-only effect: Calculate air density using projected future pressures combined with historical baseline temperatures.
- (3)
- Combined effect: Calculate air density using both projected future temperatures and pressures.
3. Results
3.1. Spatial Patterns of MTOW Change Under Climate Change
3.2. Thermal Effects on Aviation Payload Capacity
3.3. Baric Effects on Aviation Payload Capacity
3.4. Elevation-Dependent Climate Impacts on Aviation Operations
4. Conclusions
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
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Model Name | Institution |
---|---|
ACCESS-CM2 | CSIRO (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Aspendale), ARCCSS (Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science) |
ACCESS-ESM1-5 | CSIRO |
BCC-CSM2-MR | Beijing Climate Center |
CanESM5-CanOE | Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada |
CanESM5 | |
CESM2 | NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory) |
CESM2-WACCM | |
CNRM-CM6-1 | CNRM (Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques), CERFACS (Centre Europeen de Recherche et de Formation Avancee en Calcul Scientifique) |
CNRM-CM6-1-HR | |
CNRM-ESM2-1 | |
EC-Earth3 | EC-Earth-Consortium, Europe-wide consortium |
EC-Earth3-Veg | |
FGOALS-f3-L | Chinese Academy of Sciences |
GFDL-CM4 | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory |
GFDL-ESM4 | |
GISS-E2-1-G | Goddard Institute for Space Studies |
INM-CM4-8 | Institute for Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Science |
INM-CM5-0 | |
IPSL-CM6A-LR | Institut Pierre Simon Laplace |
KACE-1-0-G | National Institute of Meteorological Sciences/Korea Meteorological Administration, Climate Research Division |
MCM-UA-1-0 | Consortium for Mathematics and Its Applications |
MIROC6 | JAMSTEC (Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology), AORI (Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo), NIES (National Institute for Environmental Studies), and R CCS (RIKEN Center for Computational Science) |
MIROC-ES2L | |
MPI-ESM1-2-HR | Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Germany |
MPI-ESM1-2-LR | Max Planck Institute for Meteorology |
MRI-ESM2-0 | Meteorological Research Institute, Japan |
NorESM2-LM | NorESM Climate modeling Consortium consisting of CICERO (Center for International Climate and Environmental Research) |
NorESM2-MM | |
UKESM1-0-LL | Met Office Hadley Centre; Natural Environment Research Council; National Institute of Meteorological Sciences/Korea Meteorological Administration, Climate Research Division; National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research |
Impact Factor Changes | MTOW Changes (%) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
SAT (°C) | SAP(hPa) | SAT | SAP | SSP585 | |
High-Plateau airports (17) | 5.5 | 4.6 | −1.95 | 0.70 | −1.25 |
Plateau airports (9) | 4.9 | 3.2 | −1.70 | 0.40 | −1.30 |
Plain airports (158) | 5.3 | 0.9 | −1.84 | 0.12 | −1.72 |
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Song, H.; Zhang, T.; Zou, J.; Kang, X. Climate Change Impacts on Maximum Aviation Payloads of Chinese Airports. Atmosphere 2025, 16, 597. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16050597
Song H, Zhang T, Zou J, Kang X. Climate Change Impacts on Maximum Aviation Payloads of Chinese Airports. Atmosphere. 2025; 16(5):597. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16050597
Chicago/Turabian StyleSong, Haijun, Tinglong Zhang, Jian Zou, and Xianbiao Kang. 2025. "Climate Change Impacts on Maximum Aviation Payloads of Chinese Airports" Atmosphere 16, no. 5: 597. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16050597
APA StyleSong, H., Zhang, T., Zou, J., & Kang, X. (2025). Climate Change Impacts on Maximum Aviation Payloads of Chinese Airports. Atmosphere, 16(5), 597. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16050597