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Volume 16
Issue 5
10.3390/atmos16050551
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Article

The Forecasting Yield of Highland Barley and Wheat by Combining a Crop Model with Different Weather Fusion Methods in the Study of the Northeastern Tibetan Plateau

by
Peng Li
1,2,
Liang He
3,*,
Xuetong Wang
1,2,
Mengfan Zhao
4,
Fan Li
4,
Ning Jin
5,
Ning Yao
2,6,
Chao Chen
7,
Qi Tian
1,2,
Bin Chen
2,8,
Gang Zhao
2,8 and
Qiang Yu
2,8,9,*
1
College of Natural Resources and Environment, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, China
2
State Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on the Loess Plateau, Institute of Water and Soil Conservation, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, China
3
National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081, China
4
Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Qinghai Province, Qinghai Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Xining 810001, China
5
Department of Resources and Environmental Engineering, Shanxi Energy Institute, Jinzhong 030600, China
6
Key Lab of Agricultural Soil and Water Engineering in Arid and Semiarid Areas, Ministry of Education, College of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, China
7
CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Private Bag 5, Wembley, WA 6913, Australia
8
College of Soil and Water Conservation Science and Engineering, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, China
9
College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
*
Authors to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Atmosphere 2025, 16(5), 551; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16050551
Submission received: 20 March 2025 / Revised: 2 May 2025 / Accepted: 5 May 2025 / Published: 6 May 2025
(This article belongs to the Section Biosphere/Hydrosphere/Land–Atmosphere Interactions)
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Abstract

Obtaining precise seasonal yield estimates is challenging, with weather forecast accuracy being a key factor. This study examines the impact of different weather data forecasting methods on yield estimation. Initially, we evaluated the suitability of the WOFOST model for highland barley (HB) and wheat on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. Yield forecasts were conducted using nine historical weather selection methods under two scenarios, differing in their use of 10-day TIGGE data. The results showed that different weather data fusion methods led to varying forecasted yields. For HB, sequential selection and an improved KNN algorithm were optimal, while for wheat, sequential selection performed best. Early-season forecasts had lower accuracy, while predictions after flowering were more reliable. Incorporating TIGGE short-term forecasts into historical weather data improved HB yield forecasts, with 98.2% of days having an average relative error (ARE) below 20%. For wheat, using only historical weather data provided more stable yield forecasts, with 93.1% of days having an ARE below 20%. The weather data fusion strategy for yield forecasts offered reliable prediction accuracy without the need for full-cycle weather observation.
Keywords: WOFOST; yield forecasting; highland barley; wheat; weather data fusion WOFOST; yield forecasting; highland barley; wheat; weather data fusion

Share and Cite

MDPI and ACS Style

Li, P.; He, L.; Wang, X.; Zhao, M.; Li, F.; Jin, N.; Yao, N.; Chen, C.; Tian, Q.; Chen, B.; et al. The Forecasting Yield of Highland Barley and Wheat by Combining a Crop Model with Different Weather Fusion Methods in the Study of the Northeastern Tibetan Plateau. Atmosphere 2025, 16, 551. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16050551

AMA Style

Li P, He L, Wang X, Zhao M, Li F, Jin N, Yao N, Chen C, Tian Q, Chen B, et al. The Forecasting Yield of Highland Barley and Wheat by Combining a Crop Model with Different Weather Fusion Methods in the Study of the Northeastern Tibetan Plateau. Atmosphere. 2025; 16(5):551. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16050551

Chicago/Turabian Style

Li, Peng, Liang He, Xuetong Wang, Mengfan Zhao, Fan Li, Ning Jin, Ning Yao, Chao Chen, Qi Tian, Bin Chen, and et al. 2025. "The Forecasting Yield of Highland Barley and Wheat by Combining a Crop Model with Different Weather Fusion Methods in the Study of the Northeastern Tibetan Plateau" Atmosphere 16, no. 5: 551. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16050551

APA Style

Li, P., He, L., Wang, X., Zhao, M., Li, F., Jin, N., Yao, N., Chen, C., Tian, Q., Chen, B., Zhao, G., & Yu, Q. (2025). The Forecasting Yield of Highland Barley and Wheat by Combining a Crop Model with Different Weather Fusion Methods in the Study of the Northeastern Tibetan Plateau. Atmosphere, 16(5), 551. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16050551

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