Future Climate Projections for Tacna, Peru: Assessing Changes in Temperature and Precipitation

The Tacna region, situated in southwestern Peru, is distinguished by its desert and Andean zones, resulting in significant climatic variability. However, changes in future precipitation and temperature patterns could significantly impact sectors such as agriculture, energy, and water resources. In this context, this research analyzes climate scenarios of precipitation, maximum temperature (Tmax), and minimum temperature (Tmin) in Tacna. For this purpose, Tacna was divided into four homogeneous regions (Coast, Low Highlands, High Andes, and Andean Plateau) to assess future changes using CMIP6 climate models for the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. A bias correction of these models was applied using the Quantile Delta Mapping method to improve accuracy. The validation results showed better performance for minimum temperature compared to maximum temperature and precipitation. Regarding the scenario results, by the end of the century, under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, Tmax could increase by up to +7 °C while Tmin could rise by up to +5 °C, particularly in the Andean Plateau. Precipitation is projected to decrease by up to 20% annually in higher elevations, albeit with considerable uncertainty; however, no significant changes are expected in seasonal patterns. This study underscores the importance of robust climate projections in formulating adaptation strategies for water resource management and infrastructure planning. The findings provide essential insights for decision-makers to address the challenges posed by climate change in vulnerable regions of southern Peru.