Assessment of Typhoon Precipitation Forecasts Based on Topographic Factors
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Data and Methods
2.1. Data
2.2. Method
3. Statistical Characteristics of Precipitation and Forecasting Tests for Different Terrains
3.1. Distribution of Cumulative Typhoon Precipitation
3.2. Categorizing Precipitation Patterns and Biases
3.3. Evaluating Cumulative Precipitation Based on Traditional Method
3.4. Evaluating Neighbourhood Cumulative Precipitation
4. Conclusions and Discussion
- (1)
- Compared to the experiment before the improved topography, the model after the improved topography simulated more precipitation. The improved experiments consistently simulated the area of large-value cumulative precipitation during the study period and were more in line with the observations. The temporal trend of the three-hourly cumulative precipitation was more consistent with the observed precipitation. Typhoon HAGUPIT had the best modelled change in three-hourly cumulative precipitation among the four individual typhoon cases.
- (2)
- The simulated precipitation deviation was smallest for Typhoon HAGUPIT and largest for Typhoon LEKIMA. Reducing the degree of terrain smoothing can mitigate the model’s simulated precipitation bias for Typhoon LEKIMA, but it may inadvertently increase the model’s precipitation bias for other typhoon individual typhoon cases. The influence of topographic factors is evident as simulated precipitation deviations are consistently larger in mountainous areas than in flat areas. However, the precipitation deviations on the windward and leeward slopes vary among different typhoon events.
- (3)
- Improved terrain not only enhances the number of hits but also reduces the spatial bias in typhoon precipitation, thereby improving forecasts. The topographic differences between flat and mountainous terrain are much more pronounced than the effect of topographic differences between the windward and leeward slopes on model-simulated precipitation. There is a significant bias in the spatial distribution of precipitation over mountains, and the model provides better precipitation simulations for flat terrain. The impact of the windward and leeward slopes on precipitation simulation varies among different typhoon cases. Precipitation simulations for a wide range of terrains with large precipitation thresholds are slightly inadequate. However, for Typhoon HOTA, after improving the terrain to enhance its precipitation simulation, it has the capability to forecast heavy rainfall scenarios in mountainous areas.
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
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Event | Period Averaged | 3 h Comparisons |
---|---|---|
HOTA (2017) | 0000 UTC 23 Aug. to 0000 UTC 24 Aug. | 3 h update frequency: 8 valid times total |
LEKIMA (2019) | 1200 UTC 9 Aug. to 0000 UTC 11 Aug. | 3 h update frequency: 12 valid times total |
HAGUPIT (2020) | 0000 UTC 3 Aug. to 0000 UTC 4 Aug. | 3 h update frequency: 8 valid times total |
INFA (2021) | 1500 UTC 24 Jul. to 0300 UTC 26 Jul. | 3 h update frequency: 12 valid times total |
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Chen, X.-Z.; Ma, Y.-L.; Lin, C.-Q.; Fan, L.-L. Assessment of Typhoon Precipitation Forecasts Based on Topographic Factors. Atmosphere 2023, 14, 1607. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14111607
Chen X-Z, Ma Y-L, Lin C-Q, Fan L-L. Assessment of Typhoon Precipitation Forecasts Based on Topographic Factors. Atmosphere. 2023; 14(11):1607. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14111607
Chicago/Turabian StyleChen, Xu-Zhe, Yu-Long Ma, Chun-Qiao Lin, and Ling-Li Fan. 2023. "Assessment of Typhoon Precipitation Forecasts Based on Topographic Factors" Atmosphere 14, no. 11: 1607. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14111607
APA StyleChen, X.-Z., Ma, Y.-L., Lin, C.-Q., & Fan, L.-L. (2023). Assessment of Typhoon Precipitation Forecasts Based on Topographic Factors. Atmosphere, 14(11), 1607. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14111607