Probabilistic Inverse Method for Source Localization Applied to ETEX and the 2017 Case of Ru-106 including Analyses of Sensitivity to Measurement Data
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. ETEX Dataset
2.2. Ru-106 Dataset
2.3. Meteorological Data
2.4. Dispersion Modelling
2.5. Source-Receptor Relationship
2.6. Proposed Method for Direct Marginal Posterior Estimation
2.6.1. Likelihood and Uncertainty Quantification
3. Results and Discussions
3.1. Application to the ETEX Case
3.1.1. Sensitivity Analyses
3.1.2. Time and Magnitude of the Release
3.2. Application to the Ru-106 Case
Time and Magnitude of the Release
4. Summary and Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
Abbreviations
DERMA | Danish Emergency Response Model of the Atmophere |
PBL | Planetary Boundary Layer |
ETEX | European Tracer Experiment |
ECMWF | European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts |
PMCH | Perfluoromethylcyclohexane |
HDR | High Density Region |
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Data Set | Coordinates for Location of Maximum Probability | Distance to True Release Site |
---|---|---|
3 h measurements excluding non-detections | 75 km | |
3 h measurements all measurements | 75 km | |
12 h measurements all measurements | 94 km | |
24 h measurements all measurements | 94 km | |
24 h measurements excluding data within 200 km | 50 km | |
24 h measurements excluding data within 400 km | 218 km | |
24 h measurements excluding data within 800 km | 123 km |
Data Set | Coordinates for Location of Maximum Probability | Distance to Mayak | Distance to NIIAR |
---|---|---|---|
All measurements | 241 km | 771 km | |
Measurements conducted over up to 36 h | 239 km | 735 km | |
Measurements conducted over more than 36 h | 296 km | 794 km |
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Tølløse, K.S.; Kaas, E.; Sørensen, J.H. Probabilistic Inverse Method for Source Localization Applied to ETEX and the 2017 Case of Ru-106 including Analyses of Sensitivity to Measurement Data. Atmosphere 2021, 12, 1567. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12121567
Tølløse KS, Kaas E, Sørensen JH. Probabilistic Inverse Method for Source Localization Applied to ETEX and the 2017 Case of Ru-106 including Analyses of Sensitivity to Measurement Data. Atmosphere. 2021; 12(12):1567. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12121567
Chicago/Turabian StyleTølløse, Kasper Skjold, Eigil Kaas, and Jens Havskov Sørensen. 2021. "Probabilistic Inverse Method for Source Localization Applied to ETEX and the 2017 Case of Ru-106 including Analyses of Sensitivity to Measurement Data" Atmosphere 12, no. 12: 1567. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12121567