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Open AccessArticle

Numerical Modeling of the Natural and Manmade Factors Influencing Past and Current Changes in Polar, Mid-Latitude and Tropical Ozone

1
Russian State Hydrometeorological University, Voronezhskaya Str., 79, 192007 Saint-Petersburg, Russia
2
Institute of Numerical Mathematics RAS, Gubkina str., 8, 119991 Moscow, Russia
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Atmosphere 2020, 11(1), 76; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11010076 (registering DOI)
Received: 31 October 2019 / Revised: 19 December 2019 / Accepted: 28 December 2019 / Published: 8 January 2020
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Ozone Evolution in the Past and Future)
A chemistry–climate model of the lower and middle atmosphere is used to compare the role of natural and anthropogenic factors in the observed variability of stratospheric ozone. Numerical experiments have been carried out on several scenarios of separate and combined effects of solar activity, stratospheric aerosol, sea surface temperature, greenhouse gases, and ozone-depleting substances emissions on ozone for the period from 1979 to 2020. Simulations for the past and present periods are compared to the results of ground-based and satellite observations. Estimates of observed trends in column total ozone for the entire period 1980–2018 and separately for the late twentieth and early twenty-first century are presented. View Full-Text
Keywords: stratospheric ozone; natural and anthropogenic factors; numerical modeling; satellite observations; trend estimations stratospheric ozone; natural and anthropogenic factors; numerical modeling; satellite observations; trend estimations
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Smyshlyaev, S.P.; Galin, V.Y.; Blakitnaya, P.A.; Jakovlev, A.R. Numerical Modeling of the Natural and Manmade Factors Influencing Past and Current Changes in Polar, Mid-Latitude and Tropical Ozone. Atmosphere 2020, 11, 76.

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