Next Article in Journal
Evaluation of A Regional Climate Model for the Eastern Nile Basin: Terrestrial and Atmospheric Water Balance
Next Article in Special Issue
Unprecedented Rainfall and Moisture Patterns during El Niño 2016 in the Eastern Pacific and Tropical Andes: Northern Perú and Ecuador
Previous Article in Journal
A Novel Approach for Water Conservation and Plume Abatement in Mechanical Draft Cooling Towers
Previous Article in Special Issue
Diurnal Variation of Rainfall in a Tropical Coastal Region with Complex Orography
Open AccessArticle

Projections of Temperature-Attributable Deaths in Portuguese Metropolitan Areas: A Time-Series Modelling Approach

1
Department of Geography and Tourism, University of Coimbra, Centre of Studies on Geography and Spatial Planning, 3004-530 Coimbra, Portugal
2
Department of Physics and Centre for Environmental and Marine Studies (CESAM), University of Aveiro, Campus Universitário de Santiago, 3810-093 Aveiro, Portugal
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Atmosphere 2019, 10(12), 735; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10120735
Received: 25 October 2019 / Revised: 18 November 2019 / Accepted: 20 November 2019 / Published: 22 November 2019
(This article belongs to the Special Issue 10th Anniversary of Atmosphere: Climatology and Meteorology)
Climate change is now widely recognised as the greatest global threat over the coming decades. This study aimed to quantify and project the effects of climate change on future temperature-attributable mortality due to circulatory system diseases (CSD) in Lisbon metropolitan area (LMA) and in Porto metropolitan area (PMA). The future time slices of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5), mid-term (2046–2065) and long-term (2080–2099) were compared with the reference period (1986–2005). There is a significant decreasing trend in proportion to the overall extreme cold temperature-attributable mortality due to CSD in the future periods (2045–2065 and 2081–2099) in LMA, −0.63% and −0.73%, respectively, and in PMA, −0.62% for 2045–2065 and −0.69% for 2081–2099, compared to the historical period. The fraction attributable to extreme hot temperature in the summer months increased by 0.08% and 0.23%, from 0.04% in the historical period to 0.11% during 2046–2065, and to 0.27% during 2081–2099 in LMA. While there were no noticeable changes due to extreme hot temperature during the summer in PMA, significant increases were observed with warmer winter temperatures: 1.27% and 2.80%. The projections of future temperature-attributable mortality may provide valuable information to support climate policy decision making and temperature-related risk management. View Full-Text
Keywords: climate change; mortality; temperature extremes; distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM); projections; WRF model; Portugal climate change; mortality; temperature extremes; distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM); projections; WRF model; Portugal
Show Figures

Figure 1

MDPI and ACS Style

Rodrigues, M.; Santana, P.; Rocha, A. Projections of Temperature-Attributable Deaths in Portuguese Metropolitan Areas: A Time-Series Modelling Approach. Atmosphere 2019, 10, 735.

Show more citation formats Show less citations formats
Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Article Access Map by Country/Region

1
Back to TopTop