Changes in Extreme Low Temperature Events over Northern China under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C Warmer Future Scenarios
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Data and Methods
2.1. Data
2.1.1. Historical Data
2.1.2. Model Projection Data
2.2. Methods
2.2.1. Extreme Low Temperature Indices
2.2.2. Subregions of Northern China
2.2.3. Bias Correction
2.2.4. Probability Ratio
2.2.5. Avoided Impacts
3. Results
3.1. Evaluation of Historical Simulation
3.2. Minimum Surface Air Temperature Changes
3.3. Changes in Low Temperature Extremes
3.4. Changes in Probability Ratio
3.5. Avoided Impacts
4. Conclusions and Discussion
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Indices | Indicator Name | Definition | Unit |
---|---|---|---|
TXn | Min Tmax | Lowest winter daily maximum temperature | °C |
TNn | Min Tmin | Lowest winter daily minimum temperature | °C |
TX10p | Cool days | Days when Tmax < 10th percentile of 1976–2005 | days |
TN10p | Cool nights | Days when Tmin < 10th percentile of 1976–2005 | days |
CSDI | Cold spell duration indicator | At least six consecutive days when Tmin < 10th percentile | days |
DTR | Diurnal temperature range | Difference between daily Tmax and Tmin | °C |
Indices | TXn | TNn | TX10p | TN10p | CSDI | DTR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NW | 0.4 °C | 0.7 °C | −3.0 days | −2.0 days | −2.1 days | −1.1 °C |
NC | 0.3 °C | 0.4 °C | −3.5 days | −1.8 days | −0.6 days | 0.2 °C |
NE | 1.0 °C | 0.9 °C | −5.0 days | −6.0 days | −1.9 days | −0.8 °C |
Areas | TXn | TNn | TX10p | TN10p | CSDI | DTR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NW | 44 | 42 | 34 | 44 | 14 | 52 |
NC | 28 | 36 | 24 | 34 | 14 | 6 |
NE | 37 | 30 | 50 | 54 | 24 | 56 |
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Hu, W.; Zhang, G.; Zeng, G.; Li, Z. Changes in Extreme Low Temperature Events over Northern China under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C Warmer Future Scenarios. Atmosphere 2019, 10, 1. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10010001
Hu W, Zhang G, Zeng G, Li Z. Changes in Extreme Low Temperature Events over Northern China under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C Warmer Future Scenarios. Atmosphere. 2019; 10(1):1. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10010001
Chicago/Turabian StyleHu, Weiwei, Guwei Zhang, Gang Zeng, and Zhongxian Li. 2019. "Changes in Extreme Low Temperature Events over Northern China under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C Warmer Future Scenarios" Atmosphere 10, no. 1: 1. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10010001