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Open AccessArticle

Milk Intake and Stroke Mortality in the Japan Collaborative Cohort Study—A Bayesian Survival Analysis

1
Department of Public Health, Aichi Medical University School of Medicine, 480-1195 Aichi, Japan
2
Department of Public Health, Fujita Health University School of Medicine, Toyoake 470-1192, Japan
3
Public Health, Department of Social Medicine, Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine, Osaka 565-0871, Japan
4
Department of Public Health, Hokkaido University, Faculty of Medicine, Sapporo 002-8501, Japan
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Nutrients 2020, 12(9), 2743; https://doi.org/10.3390/nu12092743
Received: 1 August 2020 / Revised: 30 August 2020 / Accepted: 3 September 2020 / Published: 9 September 2020
The aim of this study was to further examine the relationship between milk intake and stroke mortality among the Japanese population. We used data from the Japan Collaborative Cohort (JACC) Study (total number of participants = 110,585, age range: 40–79) to estimate the posterior acceleration factors (AF) as well as the hazard ratios (HR) comparing individuals with different milk intake frequencies against those who never consumed milk at the study baseline. These estimations were computed through a series of Bayesian survival models that employed a Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation process. In total, 100,000 posterior samples were generated separately through four independent chains after model convergency was confirmed. Posterior probabilites that daily milk consumers had lower hazard or delayed mortality from strokes compared to non-consumers was 99.0% and 78.0% for men and women, respectively. Accordingly, the estimated posterior means of AF and HR for daily milk consumers were 0.88 (95% Credible Interval, CrI: 0.81, 0.96) and 0.80 (95% CrI: 0.69, 0.93) for men and 0.97 (95% CrI: 0.88, 1.10) and 0.95 (95% CrI: 0.80, 1.17) for women. In conclusion, data from the JACC study provided strong evidence that daily milk intake among Japanese men was associated with delayed and lower risk of mortality from stroke especially cerebral infarction. View Full-Text
Keywords: milk intake; mortality; stroke; Bayesian survival anlysis; time-to-event data; JACC study milk intake; mortality; stroke; Bayesian survival anlysis; time-to-event data; JACC study
MDPI and ACS Style

Wang, C.; Yatsuya, H.; Lin, Y.; Sasakabe, T.; Kawai, S.; Kikuchi, S.; Iso, H.; Tamakoshi, A. Milk Intake and Stroke Mortality in the Japan Collaborative Cohort Study—A Bayesian Survival Analysis. Nutrients 2020, 12, 2743.

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