A Hybrid Machine Learning Model Coupling Double Exponential Smoothing and ELM to Predict Multi-Factor Landslide Displacement
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Methodology
2.1. Procedure of the Proposed Model for Landslide Displacement Prediction
2.2. Displacement Decomposition
2.3. Univariate Model: Double Exponential Smoothing (DES)
2.4. Particle Swarm Optimization
2.5. Multivariate Model: Extreme Learning Machine (ELM)
2.6. Model Evaluation
3. Case Study
3.1. Baijiabao Landslide
3.2. Deformation Characteristics
3.2.1. Deformation History
3.2.2. Characteristics of the Monitoring Data
3.3. Prediction of Landslide Displacement
3.3.1. Trend Displacement Prediction
3.3.2. Periodic Displacement Prediction
3.3.3. Total Displacement Prediction
3.4. Comparison with Other Conventional Models
4. Discussion
4.1. Effects of RWL
4.2. Effects of Rainfall
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Model | RMSE | MAE | MAPE (%) | R2 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
DES–PSO–ELM | total | 1.295 | 0.998 | 0.008 | 1.000 |
training set | 1.340 | 1.041 | 0.012 | 1.000 | |
validation set | 1.369 | 1.088 | 0.001 | 0.999 | |
testing set | 0.657 | 0.512 | 0.001 | 0.991 | |
DES–LSSVM | total | 2.542 | 1.944 | 0.013 | 0.999 |
training set | 1.824 | 1.458 | 0.017 | 1.000 | |
validation set | 3.829 | 3.207 | 0.002 | 0.989 | |
testing set | 3.551 | 2.904 | 0.002 | 1.032 | |
DES–CNN–GRU | total | 2.409 | 1.811 | 0.015 | 1.000 |
training set | 2.045 | 1.535 | 0.021 | 1.000 | |
validation set | 3.297 | 2.533 | 0.002 | 0.999 | |
testing set | 2.708 | 2.350 | 0.002 | 0.961 |
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Zhu, X.; Zhang, F.; Deng, M.; Liu, J.; He, Z.; Zhang, W.; Gu, X. A Hybrid Machine Learning Model Coupling Double Exponential Smoothing and ELM to Predict Multi-Factor Landslide Displacement. Remote Sens. 2022, 14, 3384. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14143384
Zhu X, Zhang F, Deng M, Liu J, He Z, Zhang W, Gu X. A Hybrid Machine Learning Model Coupling Double Exponential Smoothing and ELM to Predict Multi-Factor Landslide Displacement. Remote Sensing. 2022; 14(14):3384. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14143384
Chicago/Turabian StyleZhu, Xing, Fuling Zhang, Maolin Deng, Junfeng Liu, Zhaoqing He, Wengang Zhang, and Xin Gu. 2022. "A Hybrid Machine Learning Model Coupling Double Exponential Smoothing and ELM to Predict Multi-Factor Landslide Displacement" Remote Sensing 14, no. 14: 3384. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14143384