Modelling of Vegetation Dynamics from Satellite Time Series to Determine Proglacial Primary Succession in the Course of Global Warming—A Case Study in the Upper Martell Valley (Eastern Italian Alps)
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Area
2.2. Data and Methods
2.2.1. Field Investigations and Analyses of Vegetation Cover
2.2.2. Satellite Derived VIs and Vegetation Cover Modelling
2.2.3. Environmental Parameters: Temperature, Topographical Data, and Glacier Information
3. Results
3.1. Field Investigations of the Vegetation Cover at the Glacier Forelands
3.2. Vegetation Cover Modelling Based on Satellite Derived VIs
3.3. Temperature Development, Glacier Retreat and Spatio-Temporal Trends of Vegetation Cover
4. Discussion
4.1. The Potential of NDVI to Model the Total Vegetation Cover in Proglacial Areas
4.2. Trends of Temperature, Glacier Retreat and Vegetation Cover
4.3. Future Dynamics in the Study Area
5. Conclusions
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Date | Landsat Scene | Satellite | Sensor |
---|---|---|---|
13 August 2020 | LC81930282020226LGN00 | 8 | OLI_TIRS |
27 August 2019 | LC81930282019239LGN00 | 8 | OLI_TIRS |
29 August 2011 | LE71930282011241ASN00 | 7 | ETM |
30 August 1997 | LT51930281997242FUI00 | 5 | TM |
16 August 1986 | LT51930281986228FUI00 | 5 | TM |
Date | Data Source | Reference |
---|---|---|
2019 | ALS-DTM, orthophoto | Own data |
2011 | ALS-DTM | Revised for this study based on the original data. Information on the ALS flight campaigns and the data sources are described in Galos et al. [98]. |
1997 | Orthophoto | Glacier Inventory South Tyrol (Hydrol. Office of the Autonomous Province of Bozen/Bolzano, South Tyrol) |
1985 | Areal images-DTM | The inventory is based on the orthophoto and the DTM derived from the original images, which were obtained from the Geoportal South Tyrol |
1911 | Map 4th Federal survey | Austrian Federal Office of Surveying and Metrology (BEV, Austria, Vienna) |
~1820 | Moraine reconstruction | Reconstruction is based on ALS-DTM (2019) under consideration of orthophoto (2019), the maps of Stötter [74] and Viebahn [75] and field observations. |
Successional Stage | Cover [%] |
---|---|
Pioneer stage | <1 |
Early successional stage | 1–14.9 |
Late successional stage | 15–59.9 |
Dwarf shrub stage | ≥60 |
(a) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Model number | predictor | elpd_diff | stacking_wts | ||||
1 | NDVI | 0.0 | 1.0 | ||||
2 | SAVI | −9.6 | 0.0 | ||||
3 | EVI | −11.3 | 0.0 | ||||
4 | MSAVI | −11.8 | 0.0 | ||||
(b) | |||||||
mean | sd | 2.5% | 50% | 97.5% | n_eff | Rhat | |
a | −1.17 | 0.11 | −1.39 | −1.17 | −0.95 | 5212 | 1 |
B | 1.51 | 0.12 | 1.26 | 1.51 | 1.74 | 5388 | 1 |
(a) | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Proglacial Area | Total Vegetation | Pioneer Stage | Early Successional Stage | Late Successional Stage | Dwarf Shrub Stage |
2019 | 8.05 | 0.896 ± 0.0002 | 0.006 ± 0.0001 | 0.231 ± 0.0001 | 0.470 ± 0.0002 | 0.189 ± 0.0002 |
2011 | 7.18 | 0.480 ± 0.0001 | 0.005 ± 0.0001 | 0.204 ± 0.0001 | 0.257 ± 0.0002 | 0.015 ± 0.0002 |
1997 | 5.85 | 0.299 ± 0.0001 | 0.007 ± 0.0001 | 0.159 ± 0.0001 | 0.130 ± 0.0002 | 0.003 ± 0.0002 |
1986 | 4.49 | 0.253 ± 0.0001 | 0.002 ± 0.0001 | 0.153 ± 0.0001 | 0.097 ± 0.0002 | 0.002 ± 0.0002 |
(b) | ||||||
Year | Proglacial Area | Total Vegetation | Pioneer Stage | Early Successional Stage | Late Successional Stage | Dwarf Shrub Stage |
2019 | +12.1 | +86.7 | +20.0 | +13.2 | +82.9 | +1160.0 |
2011 | +22.7 | +60.5 | −28.6 | +28.3 | +97.7 | +400.0 |
1997 | +30.3 | +18.2 | +250.0 | +3.9 | +34.0 | +50.0 |
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Knoflach, B.; Ramskogler, K.; Talluto, M.; Hofmeister, F.; Haas, F.; Heckmann, T.; Pfeiffer, M.; Piermattei, L.; Ressl, C.; Wimmer, M.H.; et al. Modelling of Vegetation Dynamics from Satellite Time Series to Determine Proglacial Primary Succession in the Course of Global Warming—A Case Study in the Upper Martell Valley (Eastern Italian Alps). Remote Sens. 2021, 13, 4450. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13214450
Knoflach B, Ramskogler K, Talluto M, Hofmeister F, Haas F, Heckmann T, Pfeiffer M, Piermattei L, Ressl C, Wimmer MH, et al. Modelling of Vegetation Dynamics from Satellite Time Series to Determine Proglacial Primary Succession in the Course of Global Warming—A Case Study in the Upper Martell Valley (Eastern Italian Alps). Remote Sensing. 2021; 13(21):4450. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13214450
Chicago/Turabian StyleKnoflach, Bettina, Katharina Ramskogler, Matthew Talluto, Florentin Hofmeister, Florian Haas, Tobias Heckmann, Madlene Pfeiffer, Livia Piermattei, Camillo Ressl, Michael H. Wimmer, and et al. 2021. "Modelling of Vegetation Dynamics from Satellite Time Series to Determine Proglacial Primary Succession in the Course of Global Warming—A Case Study in the Upper Martell Valley (Eastern Italian Alps)" Remote Sensing 13, no. 21: 4450. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13214450