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Article

Skipping Energy Simulation with S-TCML: A Surrogate Machine Learning Sustainable Framework for Real-Time Thermal Comfort Evaluation in Office Buildings

by
Mayar El-Sayed Moeat
1,2,*,
Naglaa Ali Megahed
2,
Rehab F. Abdel-Kader
3,4 and
Dina Samy Noaman
2
1
Architectural Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Horus University, New-Damietta 34517, Egypt
2
Architectural Engineering and Urban Planning Department, Faculty of Engineering, Port Said University, Port Said 42526, Egypt
3
Electrical Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Port Said University, Port Said 42526, Egypt
4
Faculty of Engineering Technology, ElSewedy University of Technology, Cairo 11853, Egypt
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Sustainability 2026, 18(7), 3381; https://doi.org/10.3390/su18073381
Submission received: 3 March 2026 / Revised: 26 March 2026 / Accepted: 27 March 2026 / Published: 31 March 2026

Abstract

The digital and green transitions in the AEC sector require rapid, data-driven workflows to redefine sustainability through real-time performance evaluation. However, the high computational cost of traditional energy simulations often lacks evidence-based feedback during early-stage design. This study introduces a surrogate machine learning framework (S-TCML) designed to bypass traditional energy simulation by providing an instantaneous assessment of thermal comfort. Using a parametric Grasshopper–Honeybee environment, a dataset of 3072 configurations was generated for an office room in Cairo, Egypt. Six machine learning algorithms were benchmarked, with Gradient Boosting and Random Forest demonstrating superior performance in capturing non-linear thermal physics. Validation against the EnergyPlus engine confirmed that S-TCML models deliver predictions in milliseconds—a 99.9% reduction in computational time. The Gradient Boosting model achieved exceptional accuracy with an R2 of 0.999 and RMSE of 0.013 for PMV and an R2 of 0.995 and RMSE of 0.46% for PPD prediction. Feature importance analysis proved that a tree-based ML model can capture the underlying physical relationship between variables. To bridge the feedback gap, a web-based graphical user interface (GUI) was developed to facilitate proactive design exploration. This framework supports sustainable decision-making and design efficiency, offering scalable, user-friendly tools that protect occupant health and ensure thermal resilience in hot–arid environments.

1. Introduction

The transition from traditional vernacular architecture to modern, glass-heavy “International Style” offices in the MENA region has created significant thermal challenges [1], as high Window-to-Wall Ratios (WWRs) intensify solar heat gain and reliance on mechanical cooling. Fanger’s PMV/PPD model remains the standard for evaluating thermal comfort [2,3]. Its complex, non-linear variables make traditional Building Performance Simulation (BPS) a “computational bottleneck” during early design.
In the early design stage, architects need to evaluate a vast number of design alternatives (“what if” scenarios) quickly. Current BPS tools create a bottleneck because of (A) simulation time, where standard building energy simulation tools may take between 20 s and 5 min for a single simulation. While individually short, this becomes prohibitive when thousands of iterations are required for optimization [4]; (B) large-scale parametric modeling—when using Multi-Objective Evolutionary Algorithms (MOEAs) or parametric modeling without sampling techniques, the process becomes costly in terms of time and computational resources [5]; (C) iterative process lag—the need for repeated simulations to find optimal solutions (e.g., for thermal comfort or energy efficiency) creates a lag that discourages architects from using BPS, leading them to rely on “rules of thumb” instead [4].
Rapid urbanization has increased pressure on energy systems, particularly in hot–arid regions such as North Africa and the Middle East [6]. In Cairo, Egypt, the climate is characterized by high solar radiation and large temperature variations during daytime hours. Recent studies show that the building sector accounts for approximately 40% of national electricity consumption, with cooling in residential and commercial buildings responsible for nearly half of this demand during the peak summer months [7]. As global temperatures continue to rise, cooling degree days in West Cairo are expected to increase further, leading to higher energy demand, increased carbon emissions, and growing energy affordability challenges. Architectural design in hot–arid climates has traditionally focused on reducing heat gains. However, contemporary office buildings—often defined by deep plans, extensive glazing, and high internal loads—frequently fail to maintain acceptable indoor conditions without continuous dependence on Mechanical Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems [8,9]. The core issue lies in early envelope design decisions. Parameters such as the Window-to-Wall Ratio (WWR) and room depth are typically fixed during the conceptual phase and remain unchanged throughout the building’s lifecycle [10]. These decisions remain unchanged lifecycle-wide due to high retrofit costs and the cost of modifying related structure/BIM models [4,11,12]. When poorly selected, these parameters result in long-term thermal discomfort that cannot be fully reduced, even by high-efficiency HVAC systems, due to excessive radiant heat from overheated surfaces.

1.1. Scientific Gap: Beyond Air Temperature

A clear gap exists in how thermal comfort is evaluated in common design practice. In many professional workflows, thermal performance is simplified to a single indicator: indoor air temperature (Ta) [3,13,14,15]. This simplification does not reflect how occupants experience thermal conditions. Human thermal comfort results from a heat balance between the body and its surrounding environment and is governed by four environmental variables—air temperature, Mean Radiant Temperature, air velocity, and relative humidity—together with two personal variables: metabolic rate and clothing insulation [13].
In office spaces with large, glazed facades, Mean Radiant Temperature (MRT) often becomes the dominant source of discomfort. For example, an occupant seated near a south-facing window in West Cairo may experience thermal stress due to long-wave radiation emitted by heated glazing surfaces, even when indoor air temperature is maintained at 24 °C. This condition is more accurately described using the Predicted Mean Vote (PMV) and Predicted Percentage of Dissatisfied (PPD) indices. However, calculating MRT requires dynamic thermal simulations that account for solar movement, surface temperatures, and geometry-dependent view factors. Because these simulations are computationally demanding, they are rarely used during early design stages, where design flexibility is highest, and are instead applied only at later stages for performance verification [16].
Current industry workflows for thermal comfort assessment rely on parametric tools such as Ladybug and Honeybee coupled with the EnergyPlus simulation engine. While these tools provide high accuracy, they present a significant time-related problem that limits their usefulness during early design. First, model preparation requires substantial effort. Developing a reliable parametric setup in Grasshopper linking geometry, weather files, and thermal zones needs skills that an average architect lacks [16]. Second, building energy simulation times vary significantly based on complexity, ranging from as little as 10 s for simple office zones [17] to several hours for high-quality daylighting analyses [18]. Third, effective design exploration requires hundreds or thousands of simulations. Evaluating a design space of 1000 geometric configurations across annual conditions can require more than eight hours of continuous computation [19,20]. This cumulative delay creates a clear feedback gap between design decisions and performance results. During early design, architects need immediate responses to “what-if” questions. When performance feedback is delayed, decisions tend to rely on intuition rather than quantitative evidence. As a result, opportunities to improve thermal comfort through early-stage design choices are often missed. A faster approach that maintains simulation-level accuracy is therefore needed.

1.2. The Role of Machine Learning in the Early Design Stage

As shown in Figure 1, to bridge this feedback gap, researchers are adopting surrogate modeling and machine learning (ML) to provide near-instant predictions of thermal and energy performance [21]. By training algorithms like Random Forests and neural networks on geometric inputs (WWR, orientation, and room dimensions) and validating them through rigorous metrics like R2 and MAE, these models enable architects to make data-driven decisions without the time-intensive overhead of traditional physics-based engines [17]. A recent study [21] shows that neural network (NN) models, which are proposed as surrogates for CFD, can reproduce indoor airflow and thermal distributions with high accuracy (relative errors < 12%) while reducing calculation time by approximately 80% compared to traditional CFD.
Further investigation highlights a paradigm shift from traditional, static simulations toward intelligent, data-driven frameworks. Table 1 summarizes 19 key studies that utilize machine learning (ML) to resolve the computational bottleneck of the early design stage. A significant portion of the studies, such as [5,22,23,24], focus on predicting subjective human responses. Instead of relying solely on the traditional PMV (Predicted Mean Vote) equation, these studies train ML models to predict Thermal Sensation Votes (TSVs), Comfort Scales, and Satisfaction Levels. ML models like Random Forest have demonstrated higher accuracy (70%) compared to the PMV model (34% accuracy) because they can handle non-linear relationships between personal factors (age, gender) and environmental data [23]. Studies like [5,17] use ML to predict Cooling/Heating Energy Demand and Construction Costs. These serve as “Surrogate Models.” By training an ML algorithm on synthetic data generated by EnergyPlus, architects can instantly predict the energy performance of thousands of design iterations (changing window sizes, orientation, insulation) without running time-consuming simulations for each one.
Some studies targeted specific physical behaviors; for example, ref. [21] Predict Indoor Airflow Fields to replace computationally expensive Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFDs), and [18] predict Daylight Autonomy (sDA). These models drastically reduce calculation time (from hours to seconds), enabling real-time feedback during the design process. Field data (real-world) was used primarily for thermal comfort studies [25] The trained model can capture real human behavior and complex environmental interactions, but it is often site-specific (e.g., a specific clinic in Malaysia or an office in Philadelphia), making the model hard to generalize to other climates. ASHRAE Global Thermal Comfort Database II is the notable exception, providing a global dataset for more generalized models.
Simulated data (synthetic) were used primarily for Early Design Optimization [5,17,21,26,27]. Researchers run thousands of simulations (using EnergyPlus or Radiance) to create a “synthetic” dataset. This method allows for a perfectly balanced dataset covering all possible design variations (e.g., every possible Window-to-Wall Ratio). On the other hand, the model is only as good as the simulation engine; if the simulation has a “performance gap” with reality, the ML model will inherit it.
The choice of algorithm is what determines the model’s accuracy. Table 2 shows that most of the studies used Random Forest (RF) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) in their model training process. Also, XGBoost was used among only two of the selected studies. Although XGBoost is a very powerful algorithm, it is still not commonly used because it is newly developed. Other algorithms were used in other studies, such as deep learning, MLP, MLR, fuzzy logic, and clustering. A significant limitation in previous research is the lack of transparency; many studies do not provide access to their trained models or datasets, preventing other researchers from testing or building upon their work. Furthermore, most models fail to account for building geometry, treating the indoor environment as an abstract container while ignoring how a room’s specific dimensions and shape influence thermal behavior. In summary, machine learning in building design is evolving from theoretical experimentation to practical application. The field is shifting into two distinct paths: High-Fidelity Surrogate Modeling for rapid design optimization (replacing EnergyPlus) and Personalized Comfort Prediction (replacing PMV) for smart building operations. The primary remaining challenges identified are the “Black Box” nature of high-accuracy models, the reliance on synthetic data for design optimization, and the quality of the training data. This study addresses the identified gaps by proposing a surrogate thermal comfort prediction framework for office buildings in hot–arid climates. The main contributions of this work are as follows: (1) Development of a surrogate model: An XGBoost model is implemented in Python 3.13 to replace iterative EnergyPlus simulations during the early design phase. (2) Direct Geometry–Comfort Relationship: The study explicitly links key geometric parameters—wall width, room depth, and Window-to-Wall Ratio—to PMV and PPD, providing designers with clear and actionable guidance. (3) Climate-Specific Insights for West Cairo: The analysis focuses on the Egyptian context, examining the effect of orientation and glazing on thermal comfort and identifying the WWR as the primary source of prediction for office buildings located in West Cairo.
Table 1. Review of using machine learning models in building design, performance, and thermal comfort studies. (N/A = no available data).
Table 1. Review of using machine learning models in building design, performance, and thermal comfort studies. (N/A = no available data).
Ref.Data Available?Input ParametersPrediction TargetConsiders Building DimensionsClimate ZoneLimitation of the Study
[22]No (Collected on-site)Air temp, MRT, humidity, velocity, CO2, TVOC, age, gender, clothing.Thermal Sensation, Comfort Scale, Satisfaction ScaleNoTropical (Malaysia)MLP struggled to generalize; traditional AI models lack interpretability compared to fuzzy logic.
[23]Yes (ASHRAE II is public)Air temp, outdoor temp, RH, air velocity, clothing, metabolic rate.Thermal Comfort Level (TSV)NoGlobal/VariousPrediction performance is limited by data quality/diversity; PMV accuracy is significantly lower.
[26]Yes (ASHRAE II is public)Thermal comfort parameters (missing values).Missing Thermal Comfort Data (Imputation)NoGlobal/VariousParameters related to individual preferences pose challenges for imputation.
[27]Yes (Toolkit is software)Task allocation, server resources, and power states.Power Consumption/Energy EfficiencyNoN/A (Computing)Simulator allows modeling but focuses on computing energy rather than building physics.
[5]Yes (On request)Typology, orientation, insulation, glazing, shading.Construction Cost, Cooling Energy, Comfort Hours, Heating HoursYes (Typology/Insulation)Extreme Hot, Tropical, Temperate (Mexico)Inputs require coding of qualitative parameters; limited to specific housing typologies.
[28]Yes (Zenodo)Outdoor weather (temp, rad, wind), time, lagged indoor temp.Indoor Air Temperature, PETNoTemperate (Freiburg, Germany)Models requiring “past data” perform best but cannot be used for new buildings without sensor history.
[29]Yes (Public dataset)Time, outdoor/indoor temp, humidity, velocity, age, floor number.Indoor Thermal Parameters (To Determine Discomfort)No (Floor Number Only)Humid Subtropical (Philadelphia, USA)Random Forest has a long modeling time; limited to a specific office context.
[30]VariesEnergy, occupancy, and thermal comfort inputs.Building Energy, Occupancy, Thermal Comfort, IAQVariesGlobalMost studies are experimental/simulated without post-occupancy validation.
[17]No (Synthetic generation)Room length, width, rotation, WWR, shading, U-values.Cooling/Heating Demand, Comfort Indices (POR, DhC)Yes (Length, Width, WWR)Semi-arid/Composite (Tehran, Iran)Constrained to single-zone calculations; specific parameter ranges.
[31]Yes (BMKG/ERA5)Air temp, wind speed, RH, pressure, cloud cover, irradiance.Climate Zones (Clustering)NoTropical/Equatorial (Indonesia)Identifies zones but requires a detailed building simulation to validate cooling potential.
[21]NoInlet temp/velocity, wall temps, obstacle temp.Indoor Airflow Fields (Velocity, Temperature)No (Fixed Room Size)N/A (Indoor Physics)Fixed domain size (2.44 m3); non-convex training process requires early stopping.
[32]VariesHistorical power data, meteorological data, and spatial features.Wind Speed/Power, Solar Irradiance/PowerNoGlobalRare use of datasets from different climates; few generalizable models.
[18]No (Generated)Facade parameters (aperture, angle), intermediary features.Daylight Autonomy (sDA), Annual Sunlight Exposure (ASE)Yes (Facade Geometry)Subtropical (Taipei, Taiwan)Focused only on south-facing window scenarios; uneven data distribution can reduce the model’s effectiveness.
[24]Yes (ASHRAE II is public)Air temp, radiant temp, humidity, velocity, met, clo.Thermal Sensation Vote (TSV)NoGlobalHigh accuracy (80%+) difficult to achieve with standard inputs; data imbalance.
[33]NoHistorical energy data, weather data.Building Energy ConsumptionNoTropical Monsoon (Da Nang, Vietnam)Requires large historical datasets; model specific to trained building types.
[34]VariesUrban form, building physics, systems, occupant behavior.Urban Building Energy PerformanceYes (Urban Scale)GlobalExisting tools often lack integration with urban planning workflows.
[35]NoEnvironmental variables, subjective votes.Thermal Sensation/PerceptionNoHot Summer Cold Winter (Changsha, China)Performance depends heavily on the diversity of the base learners.
[36]NoAir temp, vapor pressure, wind speed, radiation.Physiological Equivalent Temperature (PET)No (Outdoor)Temperate (Nis, Serbia)Location-specific; ANN and GP had lower generalization than ELM.
[37]NoLatitude, temp, building area, volume, passive tech.Energy Efficiency (Heating)Yes (Area, Volume)Various European (Mostly Mediterranean)Low R2 indicates the model explains only half the variance; small sample size.
Table 2. Machine learning models performance and evaluation metrics used in previous studies. (N/A = no available data).
Table 2. Machine learning models performance and evaluation metrics used in previous studies. (N/A = no available data).
Ref.ML AlgorithmEvaluation MetricsDataset SizeData TypeTime Resolution
XGBoostRandom ForestANNSVMOtherR2RMSEMAEOther
[22]YYXXMLR, MLP, FUZZY LOGICYYYMBE2278 samplesField Data (Clinic)Sub-hourly (1 min)
[23]XYXXKNNXXXAUC107,463 entriesField Data (ASHRAE II)None (Point Data)
[27]XXXXReinforcement Learning (Q-Learning)XXXOptimization1000 timestepsSimulated (EdgeAISim)Simulation Step
[5]XYYYMLRYYYMBEDatabase generatedSimulated (EnergyPlus)None (Annual/Design)
[38]XXYXN/AXXYR(Pearson)121 workplacesField Data (Sensors)Hourly
[25]XYXXN/AyxxN/A840,960 rowsField Data (Office)Sub-hourly (15 min)
[17]XYXXN/AyxyMSE3384 samplesSimulated (EnergyPlus)None (Annual/Design)
[31]XXXXPCA, Cluster AnalysisXXXN/A8760 records/yearHistorical WeatherHourly
[21]XXYXN/AXXXN/A9 training casesSimulated (CFD)None (Spatial/Static)
[18]XXYXN/AYYXN/A193,500 samplesSimulated (Radiance)None (Annual/Design)
[33]XYXXN/AYXYMAPE1-year datasetsField Data (Energy)Hourly
[24]xYYYN/AXYYMAPE, SIVaries (ASHRAE II)Field DataNone (Point Data)
[36]XXYXELM (Extreme Learning Algorithm)YYXR(Pearson)8883 observationsField DataHourly
[37]XYYYMULTIPLE REGRESSIONYXXN/A77 buildingsField Data (Survey)None (Annual/Static)

2. Materials and Methods

METHODS OVERVIEW BOX: STEP 1—Parametric Energy Simulation: Tool: Grasshopper–Honeybee–EnergyPlus; inputs: 5 parameters (month, wall width, room depth, orientation, WWR); output: 3072 simulation records with PMV and PPD targets. STEP 2—ML Model Development: 6 algorithms tested; five-fold cross-validation (CV) + hyperparameter tuning; best model: XGBoost (PMV R2 = 0.999; PPD R2 = 0.994); SHAP interpretability + stratified feature importance. STEP 3—Deployment: Streamlit web app at https://mlcomfortcalculator-2jmhivruday9i3qmpegnev.streamlit.app/ with real-time prediction, 3D geometry visualization, and ASHRAE comfort scale.
This study follows a simulation-driven and machine learning-supported methodology to develop an alternate model for instantaneous thermal comfort prediction in Egypt’s hot–arid climate, as shown in Figure 2. The methodology is designed to isolate the influence of early-stage architectural decisions on thermal comfort while maintaining high prediction accuracy.

2.1. Step 1: Running Energy Simulations

The research focuses on a single office room with one exposed external facade to isolate the impact of orientation and the Window-to-Wall Ratio (WWR) on thermal comfort. Only rooms with a single exterior wall were considered to simplify thermal interactions. The parametric modeling approach was adopted, as shown in Figure 3, using the Rhinoceros 3D(Rhino 8) and Grasshopper environment to create a flexible room model that represents a hypothetical office building prototype capable of generating multiple geometric configurations. This prototype served as the foundation for dynamic thermal simulations and subsequent machine learning training. Thermal comfort simulations were conducted using the Ladybug and Honeybee plugins, which interface with the EnergyPlus simulation engine to calculate monthly thermal comfort indicators.

2.1.1. Defining Fixed Parameters

To focus the analysis on the relationship between geometry and thermal comfort, the weather file and construction materials were fixed. To ensure the energy simulation reflects the actual built environment in Egypt, a detailed construction set was developed. The thermal properties assigned to each building element were derived from the Egyptian Code for Energy Efficiency in Buildings (ECP 306) [39], representing a case of conventional, non-insulated construction, as shown in Table 3. The exterior wall U-value of 2.164 W/m2K was selected to reflect real-world Egyptian construction realities, accounting for thermal bridging in mortar joints and local materials in accordance with ECP 306 reference data. Furthermore, internal partitions and floors were modeled with adiabatic boundary conditions. The weather file used for the West Cairo location is classified by Koppen as a hot–arid climate [40]. The outdoor air temperature is retrieved from the average temperature of each month, as shown in Figure 4. The outdoor climate is fixed and limited to West Cairo to isolate the sensitivity of architectural parameters on occupant comfort. Also, all simulations employed the same HVAC system configuration (ideal air load) with sensible_hr = 0.81 and latent _hr = 0.75 to mimic real HVAC settings. Personal variables are indeed part of the Fanger PMV equation. In this study, they were held constant at standard office values: metabolic rate = 1 met (seated office work, ISO 8996) [41] and clothing insulation = 1 clo, consistent with ASHRAE Standard 55 reference conditions [42].
The HVAC system was defined with a cooling setpoint of 26 °C and a heating setpoint of 20 °C, reflecting common comfort expectations for office environments in the local context. By holding envelope materials and system settings constant, the effect of geometric variation on comfort performance could be evaluated without interference from secondary variables.

2.1.2. Defining Varied Parameters

Five parameters were varied to generate the design space: month, exterior wall width, room depth, orientation, and Window-to-Wall Ratio. Monthly variation (1–12) was included to capture seasonal changes in solar exposure and outdoor conditions. Wall width and room depth were varied from 2 m to 9 m to represent a wide range of realistic office proportions. Orientation was tested at four primary angles (0°, 90°, 180°, and 270°), corresponding to the cardinal directions. WWR values ranged from 15% to 90%, covering both conservative and highly glazed facade scenarios, as shown in Table 4.

2.1.3. Workflow Validation

The simulation process was validated using the case study in [44]. The aim of the validation is to confirm that simulation inputs, parameters, and scripts produce outputs that are physically acceptable and technically correct. This process was carried out by comparing the simulation results of the electricity loads of the research parametric model and the validation paper. All key results were within an acceptable range of ±10%, as shown in Table 5, confirming that the model and workflow are reliable in terms of creating the energy simulation database.

2.1.4. Simulation Output and Dataset Creation

Through the systematic combination of the variables in Figure 5, a simulation was executed using Open Studio, an interface to EnergyPlus. Through simulation iterations, a dataset with unique geometric and climatic configurations was generated. In the Grasshopper environment, the simulation process is automated using colibri plugin, and the simulation data is exported to Excel using the TTtoolbox plugin, forming the base file of the dataset. The exported data contains simulation month, model properties (width, height, glazing ratio, etc.), and the energy performance results (monthly PMV and PPD), which are used as the target variables for machine learning prediction.
The Predicted Mean Vote (PMV) and Predicted Percentage of Dissatisfied (PPD) indices were selected as thermal comfort indicators because they form the basis of major international standards for indoor environmental quality, specifically ASHRAE Standard 55 [41] and ISO 7730 [45]. PMV and PPD are considered the industry standard for establishing baseline comfort in static, air-conditioned environments [46].

2.2. Step 2: Machine Learning Model Creation

The machine learning model creation follows a structured workflow to ensure accuracy and transparency. Exploratory data analysis was performed to examine data distribution and feature interactions for both subsets. Two predictive models were developed to estimate PMV and PPD using six regression algorithms selected based on prior studies: RF, XGB, ANN, Ridge, Lasso, and SVR, with predefined hyperparameters to control performance.

2.2.1. Dataset Preparation

Data preparation is the process of transforming raw data from its original format into a structured and organized form suitable for analysis [44]. In this research, dataset preparation was conducted through a structured preprocessing workflow to ensure data quality and prevent biased learning. First, a randomization process is executed; all records were randomized in Excel to remove any sequential structure in the dataset. This step prevents the ML algorithm from interpreting the data as a time-dependent series and ensures that patterns are learned based on feature relationships rather than record order. Then, data cleaning and formatting were carried out and the dataset was examined to ensure consistency and compatibility with ML algorithms. All variables were confirmed to be in numeric format, and any non-numeric entries were converted. The dataset was also checked to verify that no missing values were present.
Finally, after randomization and cleaning, the dataset was divided into 80% for training and 20% for testing. The training subset was used to develop the model, while the testing subset was reserved to evaluate its predictive performance on unseen data. This process ensures objective assessment and reliable model validation.

2.2.2. Dataset Analysis

Data analysis is the foundational stage where the researcher examines the characteristics, quality, and relationships within the dataset [46]. This process is critical because it identifies patterns that dictate which machine learning algorithms will be most effective and ensure the data is balanced for unbiased training. A distribution analysis and feature interaction analysis are conducted for both the training and testing datasets. Histogram plots are produced to visualize the distribution of individual variables and detect skewness or outliers. Finally, correlation heatmaps and scatter plots are generated to examine relationships between features and identify potential dependencies. Collectively, these visualizations provide a comprehensive understanding of the dataset, guiding model selection and ensuring robust, interpretable results.

2.2.3. Dataset Validation

A dataset validation process was conducted to confirm if thermal comfort values generated by the study reflect reality. Validation was carried out by comparing generated simulation data to real-world data. Due to the absence of monitored building data for the specific building typology studied, validation was performed against ASHRAE Global Thermal Comfort Database II [47] by comparing simulation PMV with the TSV from the ASHRAE II database
A filtering process was conducted to keep only hot–arid climate records (Köppen BWh) with operative temperatures matching the simulation range (19.93–24.77 °C), a metabolic rate = ranges from 1.0:1.3, a clothing level from 0.7 Clo to 1 Clo and only air-conditioned office buildings to best match the simulation data constraints, yielding 23 reference records (18 winter, 5 summer) from case studies located in Australia. To eliminate sample size bias, a 1-to-1 nearest operative temperature matching approach was applied, selecting for each ASHRAE record the single closest simulation row within the same season without replacement, resulting in 23 matched pairs with a mean temperature difference of 0.094 °C.
As shown in Table 6, winter results demonstrated acceptable PMV agreement (MBE = +0.478, R = 0.847, p < 0.001), with both datasets consistently indicating cool thermal conditions. Critically, simulation PMV showed directional agreement with real occupant Thermal Sensation Votes (TSVs) in both seasons—winter (TSV = −0.106, Sim PMV = −0.400) and summer (TSV = +0.140, Sim PMV = +0.021)—confirming that the simulation correctly characterizes occupant thermal experience. The overall Pearson correlation across all matched pairs was R = 0.720 (p < 0.001).
This approach, while limited by the small reference sample (n = 23), unknown building characteristics of the ASHRAE surveyed buildings, the absence of monitored field data for the simulated typology and validation against case studies in other hemispheres, provides the best available external benchmark for the simulated thermal comfort indices. Notwithstanding these constraints, the directional consistency between simulation PMV and real occupant TSV across both seasons provides sufficient evidence to support the validity of the simulation outputs for the purposes of this study.

2.2.4. Model Training

In this study, 12 machine learning models were developed using Python 3.13 within the Visual Studio Code 1.113 environment. Visual Studio Code offers a complete set of tools and libraries, including NumPy, pandas, and scikit-learn, which support efficient development and deployment of ML models. Two independent prediction tasks were formulated: one model to estimate PMV and another to estimate PPD. Each task was trained and evaluated using the same set of selected algorithms to ensure a consistent and comparable assessment.
Based on the previous studies summarized in Table 2, the six most frequently applied machine learning algorithms in thermal comfort research were selected for training on the generated dataset. These algorithms are Random Forest, Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Ridge regression, Lasso regression, and Support Vector Regression (SVR). The selection ensures methodological alignment with recent literature while allowing performance comparison across tree-based, linear, kernel-based, and neural network approaches.
The training process follows a structured workflow, as shown in Figure 6. First, the dataset generated was divided into 80% training and 20% testing subsets. The input features were identified using their column index in the data Excel sheet while PMV and PPD were treated as independent target variables. The model training workflow employs a systematic Hyperparameter Optimization strategy using Randomized Search Cross-Validation (Randomized Search CV). The aim is to find the best parameters to train the ML model. A combination of 30 parameters is chosen based on each algorithm’s search space. For XGBoost the search is for the best balance between number of trees and its learning accuracy. For algorithms sensitive to data scale such as SVR, ANN, a standard scaling process is applied inside a pipeline to prevent data leakage and to ensure accuracy. The fitted scaler was saved to be used in the future in the deployment process to make sure that the results are valid, A 5-fold cross validation method (K-fold) is used. The validation method divides the data into five parts, trains the model on four parts and tests on the fifth. The process is repeated till the model reaches its highest R2 and lowest RMSE AND MAE. The optimized hyperparameters details, hyperparameter search space ranges and k-fold results for each algorithm are recorded in Appendix A, Table A1.
Furthermore, a learning curve analysis is conducted for the selected algorithms to evaluate the ML model learning process. The analysis helps in understanding how model performance evolves with increasing training data

2.2.5. ML Models Performance Evaluation Metrics

To verify that the machine learning surrogate serves as a reliable replacement for physics-based simulations, this study employs a rigorous validation framework using three quantitative metrics and three visual diagnostics for each trained algorithm. (A) Quantitative Metrics: Accuracy is measured through MAE (average error magnitude), RMSE (to identify significant outliers), and R2 (to confirm the strength of the correlation between geometric inputs and comfort outcomes). Also, to enhance the quantitative robustness of the study, Quantile XGBoost Regression was employed to quantify prediction uncertainty. This method moves beyond point estimates by modeling the conditional distribution of thermal comfort indices (PMV/PPD), providing a 90% prediction interval (between the 5th and 95th percentiles).
(B) Visual Diagnostics: Actual vs. predicted plots detect systematic bias, Q-Q plots and residual plots verify the stability of errors across different room dimensions, and feature importance charts ensure the model’s logic aligns with known thermal physics (e.g., the high impact of the WWR). Also, a sensitivity analysis using SHAP beeswarm plots is carried out to explain the relationships between variables, and a perturbation analysis is carried out to evaluate the model’s robustness. Each trained model was saved after training to preserve the learned parameters and to allow direct deployment without retraining. The evaluation results for all algorithms and both target variables were compiled into a comparative results table to enable objective performance benchmarking. By combining statistical precision with visual proof, this methodology transforms the “black-box” model into a transparent, trustworthy tool for early-stage architectural decision-making. The selected regression metrics listed in Table 7 are used to quantify the model’s errors and correlation, as well as bias. These metrics collectively provide a detailed numerical and visual assessment of how well the model predicts the target variable across different evaluation criteria [48].

2.3. Step 3: Model Deployment for Users

Deploying machine learning (ML) models through desktop and web-based applications improves accessibility and practical usability. Web-based deployment can be implemented using frameworks such as Streamlit [49]. Streamlit allows data-driven scripts to be transformed into interactive web applications. This approach supports real-time predictions and dynamic visualization without requiring local installation. As a result, users can access the model directly through a web browser. Deploying models as web applications expands their reach and ensures consistent user experience across different devices and platforms [45,50].

3. Results

This section presents a comprehensive evaluation of the S-TCML framework through three sequential stages. First, it establishes the statistical foundation of the study by conducting a detailed distribution and visual analysis of the generated dataset. Second, it systematically benchmarks the predictive performance of six machine learning algorithms for estimating PMV and PPD, using rigorous quantitative metrics (R2, MAE, and RMSE) supported by visual diagnostics to determine the most accurate model. Finally, it moves from evaluation to interpretation and application by extracting architectural insights through feature importance analysis and demonstrating the practical deployment of the best-performing model within an interactive real-time web application.

3.1. Generated Dataset Analysis

The generated dataset size is 3072 samples (rows) corresponding to the full factorial combination of 12 months × 4 orientations × 4 WWR values × 4 wall widths × 4 room depths = 3072 configurations. Each row represents an independent simulation run. The generated dataset is divided into 80% training set with 2457 rows and 20% test set with 615 rows (total: 3072 samples), as shown in Appendix A, Table A2.
The initial phase of the data analysis involved a comprehensive distribution assessment of both independent design parameters and dependent thermal comfort metrics, as detailed in Figure 7. The input parameters—month, exterior wall width, room depth, orientation, and WWR—display discrete, uniform distributions with distinct peaks. Orientation is sampled at four primary cardinal points (0, 90, 180, and 270 degrees), while the WWR is tested at specific intervals ranging from 0.15 to 0.9. The exterior wall width and room depth show mirrored sampling at 2, 4, 6, and 9 m.
The output variables for thermal comfort exhibit more continuous, natural distributions. The Predicted Mean Vote (PMV) shows a range from roughly −1.0 to +1.2, with a high concentration of neutral results between −0.5 and +0.5. The Predicted Percentage Dissatisfied (PPD) is heavily skewed toward lower values, with the majority of data points falling between 5% and 15%. A smaller tail of higher dissatisfaction reaches up to 40%, representing the most extreme design scenarios. This balanced dataset provides a robust foundation for machine learning because it represents both optimal and uncomfortable architectural configurations.
Regarding Temporal Seasonality, this dataset is cross-sectional, not a time series. Each row represents a fully independent simulation of a specific design configuration. (width, depth, orientation, WWR) for a specific calendar month. There is no temporal sequence between rows. A month-three record for a west-facing room is completely independent from a month-four record for the same room. Randomization before splitting, therefore, carries no risk of temporal data leakage. To verify balanced seasonal representation, the monthly distribution was confirmed to be statistically uniform (each month appearing in approximately 8.3% of records) in both the training and testing subsets, as shown in distribution analysis charts in Figure 7.
The correlation matrix, Figure 8a, reveals the specific influence of design variables on these comfort metrics. The month has a moderate positive correlation with PMV (0.290), highlighting the dominant role of seasonal outdoor temperature. Room depth shows a notable negative correlation with PPD (−0.133), suggesting that deeper rooms may offer more stable thermal zones in this specific dataset. Meanwhile, glazing facade orientation (0.135) and the WWR (0.126) show low positive correlations with PMV, indicating that increased window area and specific orientations contribute to higher indoor temperatures. The near-zero correlations between input variables (e.g., month vs. WWR) validate that the parametric study was perfectly balanced and free from multicollinearity.
In the scatter plot, Figure 8b illustrates the fundamental physical relationship between the Predicted Mean Vote (PMV) and Predicted Percentage Dissatisfied (PPD), confirming the integrity of the generated simulation data. The distribution follows a perfect parabolic curve, adhering to Fanger’s thermal comfort model, where the minimum PPD of 5% is achieved exactly at a neutral PMV of 0.0. As the thermal sensation deviates toward “cool” (−1.2) or “warm” (+1.3), the percentage of dissatisfied occupants increases symmetrically. On the cool side, a PMV of -1.0 corresponds to approximately 26% PPD, while on the warm side, the data reaches a maximum PPD of over 40% at a PMV of 1.3. The color-coding by month shows a clear seasonal divide: winter months (e.g., February and December) cluster on the negative PMV side, while summer months (June and August) dominate the positive, warmer side of the curve.
Seasonal Interaction Plots in Figure 9 illustrate the seasonal interaction between the month and the Window-to-Wall Ratio (WWR) with respect to thermal sensation. Figure 9A shows that thermal comfort follows a clear seasonal cycle. Winter has negative PMV values (around −0.75 to −0.80), meaning people feel cold. A low WWR makes winter colder because there is less solar heat gain. Spring is the only comfortable period. PMV values move close to zero for all WWR cases. Summer has positive PMV values (around +0.75 to +0.85), meaning people feel hot. A high WWR increases overheating due to higher solar heat gain. Autumn gradually shifts back toward cold conditions. To conclude, the WWR increases discomfort: small windows worsen winter cold, and large windows worsen summer heat.
Figure 9B shows that the three WWR values do not behave the same across seasons. The lines are not parallel, which means there is a real interaction between the WWR and season in affecting thermal sensation. The difference between the effect of the change in WWR values is biggest in summer and winter and smallest in spring. This means the WWR has the greatest impact during extreme weather conditions. The ASHRAE comfort range (PMV ± 0.5) is exceeded in both summer and winter for all WWR cases. This shows that the WWR, as a passive facade design alone, cannot maintain comfort all year in this building type. Overall, medium WWR gives the most balanced performance. It reduces winter cold without greatly increasing summer overheating. However, since comfort limits are still exceeded, additional solutions should be investigated.

3.2. ML Model Performance

Comparing the resulting 12 models, six for PMV and six for PPD, against six ML algorithms, quantitative analysis and visual analysis are conducted. Also, attached to Appendix A is the “Test dataset” used for model validation.

3.2.1. Training Performance Analysis (Learning Curve) for PMV and PPD Models

The training performance is evaluated through learning curve analysis across all models. The analysis plots in Figure 10 and Figure 11 contain two curves representing models’ performance during training against two datasets; the blue curve represents the performance of the training dataset, while the red curve represents the performance of the test dataset. For the PMV model, the XGBoost, ANN, and SVR models show a much smaller gap between the two curves compared with the other algorithms, indicating that the models are not memorizing the data (overfitting). The strong alignment at a high R 2 value (around 0.99) (convergence) also indicates that these models produce reliable predictions for unseen data and successfully capture the underlying patterns governing PMV. For the PPD model, XGBoost performed the best, indicating that the rest of the algorithms failed to learn and predict PPD accurately.

3.2.2. Prediction Performance Analysis for PMV and PPD Models

Model accuracy was evaluated using R2, MAE, and RMSE to provide a comprehensive assessment of goodness of fit and prediction error magnitude.
I
PMV Prediction Performance
For PMV estimation, as shown in Figure 12a,c,e, Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) achieved the highest predictive accuracy with an R2 of 0.999, an MAE of 0.006, and an RMSE of 0.009. These values indicate an almost perfect agreement between predicted and simulated PMV values. The Random Forest model also demonstrated excellent performance, with an R2 of 0.9983 and a low RMSE of 0.0246, confirming the robustness of tree-based ensemble approaches for non-linear thermal comfort prediction. The Artificial Neural Network (ANN) achieved an R2 of 0.9905, with slightly higher error values (RMSE = 0.0574). Although less accurate than the ensemble models, the ANN model maintained strong predictive capability. Support Vector Regression (SVR) also performed well, with an R2 of 0.9823 and RMSE of 0.0784, indicating reliable non-linear approximation but reduced precision compared to ensemble methods. In contrast, the linear regularization models, Ridge and Lasso, showed very poor performance in terms of PMV prediction. Their R2 values (0.0686 and 0.0445, respectively) indicate that these models failed to capture the non-linear relationships within the dataset. The high RMSE values (≈0.57) confirm the inadequacy of purely linear approaches for modeling PMV under the studied conditions.
II
PPD Prediction Performance
For PPD estimation, as shown in Figure 12b,d,f, a similar performance trend was observed. XGBoost again achieved the best results, with an R2 of 0.994, MAE of 0.299, and RMSE of 0.457. This confirms its strong generalization capability across both thermal comfort indices. The Random Forest model ranked second, achieving an R2 of 0.9909 and RMSE of 0.600. Although slightly less precise than XGBoost, it maintained high predictive stability.
The ANN model demonstrated competitive performance, with an R2 of 0.9936 and RMSE of 0.505. Interestingly, the ANN model slightly outperformed Random Forest in R2 but produced higher MAE, indicating small variations in error distribution. In contrast to PMV results, SVR showed a significant reduction in performance for PPD prediction, with an R2 of 0.4824 and RMSE of 4.53. This suggests that SVR struggled to approximate the non-linear structure of PPD, which is more complex due to its exponential relationship with PMV. Again, Ridge and Lasso performed poorly, with R2 values close to zero (~0.024). The very high MAE (~5.17) and RMSE (~6.23) confirm that linear models are unsuitable for accurate PPD estimation.
III
Actual vs. Predicted scatter plots
The scatter plots in Figure 13 (PMV) and Figure 14 (PPD) evaluate how closely the models’ predictions align with simulated data. The XGBoost (Figure 13a and Figure 14a) and Random Forest (Figure 13b and Figure 14b) models demonstrate the highest accuracy, with data points tightly clustered along the diagonal identity line. The ANN model (Figure 13c and Figure 14c) also shows strong performance, maintaining a narrow distribution around the identity line, though with slightly more variance than the ensemble models at the extreme ends of the scale. The SVR model shows a moderate “cloud” of dispersion. In the PMV chart (Figure 13d), it captures the general trend well but exhibits more variance than the tree-based models. In the PPD chart (Figure 14d), the SVR model starts to struggle at higher values (above 20% PPD), where it begins to noticeably underestimate the actual values. Finally, the Ridge (Figure 13e and Figure 14e) and Lasso (Figure 13f and Figure 14f) models show significant horizontal banding and wide dispersion, indicating a fundamental failure to capture the dataset’s complexity.
IV
Q-Q Plots
The Q-Q plots in Figure 15 and Figure 16 verify the statistical reliability of the models by comparing residual distributions against theoretical quantiles. The XGBoost (Figure 15a and Figure 16a) and ANN (Figure 15c and Figure 16c) models track the reference line most consistently, suggesting their errors are normally distributed. The Random Forest model (Figure 15b and Figure 16b) shows similar linear alignment but begins to deviate at the upper quantiles in the PPD analysis. The SVR model (Figure 15d and Figure 16d) exhibits visible “S-curves” and significant deviations at the tails, particularly in Figure 15e, indicating that the model struggles to remain reliable when predicting outliers or extreme thermal conditions. The Ridge (Figure 15e and Figure 16e) and Lasso (Figure 15f and Figure 16f) models show the most dramatic departures from the diagonal, confirming that their prediction errors are highly skewed.
V
Residuals vs. Fitted Plots
The charts in Figure 17 and Figure 18 illustrate the distribution of prediction errors across the range of fitted values. The XGBoost (Figure 17a and Figure 18a) and Random Forest (Figure 17b and Figure 18b) models display a relatively random cloud of points centered at the zero-horizontal line, indicating homoscedasticity. The ANN model (Figure 17c and Figure 18c) performs similarly well, though it shows a slight concentration of residuals at specific predicted intervals. In contrast, the SVR model (Figure 17d and Figure 18d) displays a distinct curved or “bowed” residual pattern, suggesting that it fails to capture certain non-linear relationships within the data. This issue is even more pronounced in the Ridge (Figure 17e and Figure 18e) and Lasso (Figure 17f and Figure 18f) models, which exhibit extreme “U-shaped” distributions, indicating high systematic bias and poor model fit.
VI
Feature Importance analysis
The feature importance rankings for the top-performing models are presented in Figure 19. Across both XGBoost (Figure 19a,c) and Random Forest (Figure 19b,d), the variable “Month” is identified as the most dominant predictor, carrying the highest weight in determining both PMV and PPD outcomes. “Glazing facade orientation” emerges as the second most influential factor, followed by “WWR”. Structural features such as “Exterior wall width” and “Room depth” consistently show the lowest relative importance, suggesting they have a minimal impact on the models’ predictive performance in this specific study.
VII
Beeswarm SHAP analysis
Beeswarm (SHAP) analysis is based on game theory and is used to calculate the contribution of each variable across all possible combinations. It analyzes the original data as it is, without modification, to explain the model behavior. The points are distributed according to how the variables interact with each other. The analysis is conducted for the top-performing model, XGBoost. The SHAP beeswarm analyses for both the PMV and PPD models reveal a hierarchical consistency in feature importance, yet they diverge significantly in their spatial implications. As expected, seasonal timing (month) and building envelope parameters (orientation and WWR) emerge as the primary drivers for both thermal sensation and occupant dissatisfaction, as shown in Figure 20.
  • 1.
    The Glazing Conflict (WWR and Orientation)
Both models confirm a direct, positive correlation between a higher WWR and increased thermal stress. In the PMV model, high WWR values (red) consistently push results toward the “warm” side (+SHAP), while the PPD model confirms that this thermal gain translates directly into a higher percentage of dissatisfied occupants (up to +6% impact per instance).
  • 2.
    The Effect of Room Depth
The most striking distinction between the two models lies in the role of room depth. While depth has a negligible effect on the overall thermal sensation (PMV), it emerges as a key mitigation factor for dissatisfaction (PPD). The PMV perspective: changing the room depth does not fundamentally alter the average temperature of the space. The PPD perspective: deeper rooms (red) show a significant negative SHAP impact (up to −2.5%), meaning they reduce the number of dissatisfied people.
This suggests that deeper spatial configurations provide a “thermal buffer zone” far from the facade. Even if the average room temperature remains high, the availability of a deeper, shielded interior zone allows for localized comfort, thereby stabilizing the overall satisfaction levels of the occupants.
VIII
Perturbation analysis
The perturbation plot is based on intentionally changing one variable by a specific percentage (±5%, ±10% in this study) and observing the effect. It creates new, modified, or perturbed data to test the model’s response. Only one variable is changed at a time (one-at-a-time analysis). The PMV model heatmap (Figure 21, left) shows significant sensitivity to the month (66.08%) and orientation (36.51%), which aligns perfectly with the seasonal and solar-driven nature of thermal sensation in West Cairo. In comparison, the PPD model (Figure 21, right) exhibits a more moderated sensitivity profile (with a maximum of 39.09% for the month), suggesting that the percentage of dissatisfied occupants is a more stable metric for long-term design evaluation than the immediate thermal vote.
Crucially, for both models, the structural variables—WWR, room depth, and exterior wall width—showed minimal sensitivity (mostly under 10%). This proves that XGBoost models in this study are generalizable and reliable for real-world architectural applications.
IX
Dependence analysis
Figure 22 (left) shows the XGBoost PMV dependence plot for the feature “Month” interacting with room depth. The x-axis (month) represents the time of year (1 = January, 12 = December). The y-axis (SHAP value for the month) shows how much the month contributes to changing the PMV. Positive values increase PMV (warmer), while negative values decrease it (cooler). The color bar (room depth) indicates an interaction effect, showing room depth from 2.0 to 9.0 m.
The analysis shows that there is a clear seasonal trend with a bell-shaped pattern. Summer months (June–August) strongly increase PMV, while winter months (December–February) reduce it. The spread of points within each month shows that this effect varies depending on room depth, with deeper and shallower spaces responding differently. The analysis confirms that the model is highly sensitive to the month, with this single variable shifting PMV by nearly 1.75 units (from about −0.9 in winter to +0.85 in summer).
Figure 22 (middle) shows the XGBoost PMV dependence plot for feature orientation interacting with the WWR. The plot explains how the direction of a building’s orientation (in degrees) influences thermal comfort prediction (PMV). The plot shows that building orientation is a primary thermal driver, where south-facing (180°) rooms exert the strongest warming influence (SHAP > +0.4) and north-facing (0°) rooms provide a consistent cooling effect (SHAP −0.1 to −0.35). In contrast, east and west orientations remain thermally neutral. This impact is further scaled by the Window-to-Wall Ratio (WWR): at the south orientation, a high WWR amplifies heat sensation through maximum solar gain, while at the north orientation, increased glass area exacerbates cooling due to heat loss without the benefit of direct sunlight.
In Figure 22 (right), the XGBoost dependence plot illustrates how the Window-to-Wall Ratio (WWR) drives Predicted Mean Vote (PMV) across four glazing thresholds (0.15 to 0.9), revealing a distinct transition from a “cooling” zone to a “heating” zone. At low ratios (0.15–0.3), small windows generally yield negative SHAP values, contributing to a cooler environment likely due to superior opaque wall insulation. However, once glazing exceeds approximately 50%, it becomes the primary driver for a warmer thermal sensation. Orientation acts as a critical sensitivity multiplier in this relationship: at the highest WWR (0.9), south and west orientations (indicated by pink/red clusters) incur the most significant “thermal penalty,” while north and east orientations (blue clusters) show a markedly lower—though still positive—impact on PMV.
X
Stratified analysis
Stratified analysis is primarily a quantitative analysis, but it is almost always presented through visual analysis to make the results interpretable. The stratified analysis of feature importance across the four seasons provides a dynamic understanding of how architectural variables influence thermal performance throughout the year. For the PMV model in Figure 23 (Top), thermal sensation in winter is almost exclusively governed by orientation, as solar heat gain becomes the primary determinant of comfort. In summer, this shifts to a “distributed importance” where WWR and month interact with orientation to manage heat admission. During the transitional spring and autumn periods, the month variable dominates, as rapid outdoor temperature fluctuations outweigh fixed architectural features.
In the PPD model in Figure 23 (bottom), which tracks occupant dissatisfaction, winter remains driven by orientation due to its role in solar exposure. However, summer highlights the necessity of architectural intervention, as room depth and WWR peak in importance. Spatial configuration, specifically the ability to retreat from the facade, is vital for minimizing discomfort. While month remains the primary driver in spring and autumn, autumn shows a unique spike in WWR significance, likely reflecting dissatisfaction caused by lower solar angles and localized overheating.
XI
Taylor Diagrams
Taylor diagram analysis for trained models is presented in Figure 24. The black star marks the reference (EnergyPlus) position. The outer dashed black arc indicates normalized standard deviation = 1.0. Gray concentric arcs represent lines of constant normalized standard deviation. Gray straight spokes radiating from the origin represent lines of constant Pearson correlation, labeled 0.0–0.99 on the outer edge. Dashed blue arcs centered on the reference star represent lines of equal Centered Root Mean Square Error (CRMSE). Each colored circle represents one trained ML model. The closer a dot is to the black star (EnergyPlus reference), the better the model. A perfect model would sit exactly on the star. For PMV models (Figure 24, left): XGBoost, ANN, and Random Forest are all clustered right on top of the reference star at correlation ≈ 1.0 and normalized standard deviation ≈ 1.0, meaning they reproduce EnergyPlus PMV predictions almost perfectly in terms of both pattern and variability. SVR is very close to the star but slightly separated, meaning it is still a strong model. Ridge and Lasso sit far to the left at a very low normalized std (≈ 0.10), meaning they predict values that barely vary at all, essentially outputting near-constant predictions regardless of input. PPD models: XGBoost and ANN again sit on the reference star with high accuracy. Random Forest is slightly further away—still good, but with marginally more variability mismatch. SVR is noticeably separated; it struggles with PPD’s non-linear structure, consistent with its low R2 of 0.48. Ridge and Lasso collapse again to the bottom-left corner, which indicates low accuracy.
XII
Box plots
A box centered on the dashed zero line = unbiased predictions. A narrow box = consistent small errors. A wide box = large, unpredictable errors. PMV residuals (Figure 25, left panel): XGBoost has the tightest box of all, confirming near-zero prediction error across all 615 test cases. ANN is similarly tight, and slightly wider than XGBoost. Random Forest is compact but has a few outliers below −0.2. SVR is narrow but shows a small systematic positive bias (the box sits slightly above zero), meaning it slightly underpredicts PMV on average. Ridge and Lasso have very big boxes, spanning from −1.0 to +1.0 with no consistency, and random errors in every direction, confirming total model failure.
PPD residuals (Figure 25, right panel): XGBoost is extremely tight around zero and is considered the best performer by a clear margin. ANN is also very tight compared to XGBoost. Random Forest is slightly wider with a few outliers reaching ±5%PPD. SVR shows a noticeably larger spread, consistent with its weaker R2 for PPD. Ridge and Lasso again show a large symmetric spread with outliers reaching ±20%PPD—confirming they are completely unsuitable for this task.

3.2.3. Model Validation Through Prediction Intervals Analysis

This analysis aims to validate the model’s performance. The analysis is conducted by testing the model for 615 cases (test dataset) to identify a range where the confidence of the results is =90%. Based on the extracted results, Figure 26 (left = PMV, right = PPD), the numerical interpretation can be synthesized as follows:
Coverage Score: The model achieved a coverage rate of 78% for PMV and 77% for PPD. While these results fall slightly below the 90% prediction interval (PI) target, they indicate that the model captures a significant portion of the ground truth within the calculated safety zone, providing a more grounded estimation than arbitrary point values.
Average Interval Width: The average width for PMV is approximately 0.19 units and for PPD = 3.3%. This interval is sufficiently “tight” to support precise design decisions, yet “wide” enough to realistically account for expected environmental fluctuations.
Stability Zone (Narrow Bands): In samples where PPD ranges between 5–10%, the interval bands are notably narrow. This indicates high confidence from the model when the architectural configuration (orientation/WWR) successfully achieves thermal comfort. In short, optimized design solutions lead to stable and predictable thermal outcomes.
Turbulence Zone (Wide Bands): At higher PPD values (exceeding 20%), the interval width expands significantly. Physically, this suggests that as design efficiency decreases (e.g., a west-facing orientation with a high WWR in summer), the relationship between variables becomes highly non-linear and complex, increasing uncertainty. The model effectively flags these design zones as “high-risk” because the predictions fluctuate across a broad range.
Outliers (21%): A very small number of points fall outside the light blue interval (e.g., near sample 10). In quantitative research, this is entirely expected (Expected Error), since the target was 90% confidence rather than 100%.
By analyzing the outliers (resulting errors), the study found that the model failed to predict 135 of 615, with a coverage = 78% for PMV and 77% for PP. The heatmap in Figure 27 shows that the prediction failures (those that escaped outside the 90% safety range) are not randomly distributed, but are concentrated in specific architectural configurations:
North Orientation Effect: We notice the highest concentration of failures (15 cases) at the north orientation with a very high glass ratio (WWR = 0.9). Statistically, this indicates that the model finds it difficult to predict thermal comfort in northern facades with large glass areas, perhaps because of very slight differences in temperature that make the model very sensitive to any small change.
Interaction Effect: Failures are also clearly concentrated in the east and north facades at low glass ratios (0.15–0.3). This may be because the effect of the solid wall in these cases is stronger than the effect of the glass, which creates complexity in heat transfer calculations through the building mass that is hard for the model to predict with full accuracy.
West Facade: A noticeable concentration of errors (13 cases) appears at WWR = 0.3. Architecturally, western facades suffer from low-angle solar radiation in the afternoon, which is a highly fluctuating variable, explaining the increase in “uncertainty” in these configurations.
Seasonal Generalization Failure: The model is trained on balanced seasonal data but fails on extreme seasons, suggesting inadequate representation of seasonal thermal dynamics.
This analysis reveals a model with systematic biases rather than random errors, making it amenable to targeted improvements through domain-specific feature engineering and stratified retraining approaches.

3.3. Model Deployment

The model is deployed as a web-based application that offers a flexible, lightweight experience suitable for remote collaborative design. It is live and accessible at https://mlcomfortcalculator-2jmhivruday9i3qmpegnev.streamlit.app/ (accessed on 2 March 2026) while the source code and model files can be accessed via the GitHub repository at https://github.com/mmoeattv/mlcomfortcalculator (accessed on 2 March 2026).
The developed Graphical User Interface (GUI) serves as a specialized decision-support tool for architects, integrating machine learning predictions with real-time architectural visualization. The interface is divided into nine core functional components, as shown in Figure 28:
(1) Parameters: A dynamic control panel allowing users to manipulate key architectural variables, including temporal data (month), spatial dimensions (wall width, room depth), and glazing characteristics (orientation, WWR).
(2) Design Aims: A reference section that displays target benchmarks (e.g., ASHRAE 55 standards), enabling immediate comparison between predicted results and international thermal comfort requirements.
(3) Prediction Results: High-visibility gauges providing real-time point predictions for PMV (Predicted Mean Vote) and PPD (Predicted Percentage of Dissatisfied), offering an instantaneous assessment of the indoor climate.
(4) Error Ranges (Intervals): A visual representation of the 90% prediction interval (PI). This component displays the uncertainty boundaries, ensuring that the user understands the statistical range within which the true value is expected to fall.
(5) Intervals Explanation: A legend that deciphers the statistical symbols used in the interval plots (e.g., the gold diamond representing the median). It educates the user on how to interpret narrow versus wide uncertainty bands.
(6) 3D Interactive Room: A live WebGL-based 3D previews that updates synchronously with input changes. This allows architects to visualize the physical proportions of the space and the Window-to-Wall Ratio in real-time.
(7) Design Insights: An intelligent feedback module that translates numerical data into actionable design advice (e.g., “Space is too warm; suggest reducing WWR or changing orientation”), bridging the gap between raw data and architectural practice.
(8) Information Tooltip: Background information regarding the research context, specifying the study area (West Cairo, Egypt) and the underlying surrogate models trained on EnergyPlus parametric simulations.
(9) User Feedback Mechanism: An integrated feedback loop designed for usability testing, allowing practitioners to provide qualitative data that aids in the iterative refinement of the S-TCML framework.
(10) Display option: A mode toggle button for the users to choose light mode or dark mode display.

4. Discussion

This section contextualizes the S-TCML results within the broader literature on surrogate modeling for thermal comfort and addresses key limitations of the present framework.
EnergyPlus provides data at hourly intervals, but in this study, an average monthly simulation is conducted. Therefore, the output is a monthly average of thermal comfort, not a constant or fixed value. This reflects the dynamic nature of the environment throughout the month.
The model performance and feature importance results did not reveal unexpected relationships—they confirmed well-established thermal physics. Seasonal variation drives indoor comfort more than any geometric parameter. South-facing rooms are warmer than north-facing ones at 30°N latitude, large glazing areas cause overheating, and deeper rooms shield occupants from facade radiant heat. These are principles that any building physics textbook would state. The significance of the model reproducing them is not in the findings themselves, but in what the reproduction proves: the XGBoost model has successfully learned the real physical relationships between architectural inputs and thermal comfort outcomes from simulation data alone, without being programmed with any thermal formula. A model that recovers known physics from data can be trusted to predict unknown configurations correctly—and it does so with near-zero error in milliseconds.
The WWR does not behave linearly: below approximately 50%, solid wall insulation outweighs solar gain, and glazing provides a net cooling benefit; above 50%, the relationship reverses, and overheating accelerates. This threshold cannot be identified by simplified linear tools, and it gives designers a specific, quantified target range of 30–50% WWR for this climate. Furthermore, room depth reduces PPD (occupant dissatisfaction) without noticeable changes in the results of the PMV model for the same inputs, because deeper spaces create a zone shielded from facade radiant heat where some occupants are more comfortable even when the room average is unchanged. This split between PMV and PPD as two models is invisible to single-indicator temperature tools and only becomes apparent when both indices are evaluated together.
The study found that S-TCML delivers PMV and PPD predictions in milliseconds, compared to the minutes or hours required by EnergyPlus for equivalent configurations —a 99.9% reduction in computational time. This means that an architect can evaluate hundreds of geometric alternatives in the time it would previously take to run a single simulation, fundamentally changing the role of performance feedback in early-stage design. Across the 12 models trained in this study, the best-performing model (XGBoost for PMV and PPD) is selected for deployment, as it consistently outperformed all alternatives across every evaluation metric and visual diagnostic.
Linear models completely failed. This is because the relationship between building geometry and thermal comfort is fundamentally non-linear.
The model also provides a confidence range, not just a single prediction. The study found that the 90% prediction interval had an average width of 0.19 PMV units and 3.3%PPD—both within the ASHRAE 55 acceptable tolerance of ±0.5 PMV. This means that a designer can trust the prediction within a known margin. Additionally, the model was found to be less confident for north-facing rooms with very high WWR (Figure 25), giving designers a clear signal about which configurations carry more uncertainty. None of the studies reviewed in Table 2 provide this kind of uncertainty information.
The study used monthly average PMV and PPD values rather than hourly outputs. This was a deliberate choice to cover the full range of geometric configurations across all seasons efficiently. The consequence is that the model smooths out daily peaks—it cannot predict the worst hour of the hottest day, which limits its use for air-conditioning system sizing. However, for the intended purpose of comparing geometric options at the early design stage, monthly averages are sufficient and meaningful. Moving to an hourly resolution is the most important next step for the future development of this framework.
Although PPD is mathematically derived from PMV (where PMV ± 0.5 corresponds to PPD = 10%), both were modeled as independent targets to evaluate the ML’s ability to autonomously ‘learn’ this non-linear physical relationship. The results confirmed that the models successfully mirrored Fanger’s logic. However, for future optimization, predicting PMV and analytically deriving PPD is recommended to reduce computational overhead while maintaining physical integrity.
A significant limitation of prior ML studies in this field is the lack of transparency. Most studies reviewed in Table 1 do not share their trained models, datasets, or source code, preventing other researchers from testing, reproducing, or building on their work. This study directly addresses that gap: the validated XGBoost model was deployed as a free, publicly accessible web application using Streamlit, and both the dataset and source code are shared openly via GitHub. This means any architect or researcher can use the tool immediately, without owning simulation software or writing a single line of code.
The deployed application transforms complex building physics into a practical design tool. By entering room dimensions, orientation, and WWR, a designer receives instant PMV and PPD predictions with a calibrated uncertainty range, a real-time 3D room visualization, and automatic ASHRAE Standard 55 compliance feedback. This moves the S-TCML framework from theoretical experimentation to practical application—making evidence-based thermal comfort evaluation accessible at the earliest and most consequential stage of the design process.

5. Conclusions

This study developed and validated a surrogate machine learning framework that predicts indoor thermal comfort (PMV and PPD) from early-stage architectural decisions for office buildings in the hot–arid climate of West Cairo, Egypt. The framework replaces time-consuming EnergyPlus simulations with millisecond predictions, achieving a 99.9% reduction in computational time without sacrificing accuracy. The main findings are as follows:
(a)
On the relationship between building geometry and thermal comfort:
-
The time of year (month) is the strongest driver of indoor thermal comfort in this climate, confirming that no geometric decision alone can guarantee year-round comfort in West Cairo—mechanical conditioning is always required, and the design goal should be to reduce its load.
-
By analyzing prediction results, the surrogate model found that south-facing offices are consistently the warmest and north-facing the coolest, following the solar geometry expected at Cairo’s latitude. Orientation is, therefore, the most actionable single geometric variable available to the designer, which validates that the model captures the physical relationship between thermal comfort variables.
-
A Window-to-Wall Ratio between 30% and 50% offers the best thermal balance. Below this range, solid wall insulation outperforms glazing; above it, solar heat gain dominates and discomfort increases sharply.
-
Deeper rooms reduce occupant dissatisfaction (PPD) because interior occupants are shielded from radiant heat near the facade. Room depth is, therefore, a low-cost design strategy to improve comfort satisfaction.
(b)
On machine learning model performance:
-
XGBoost was the best-performing algorithm across all metrics and both targets, outperforming Random Forest and ANN—the two most commonly used algorithms in comparable studies—particularly at extreme thermal conditions, where design decisions matter most.
-
Linear models (Ridge and Lasso) completely failed to predict thermal comfort from geometric inputs, providing direct evidence that the geometry–comfort relationship is non-linear and cannot be captured by simplified linear tools.
-
The model provides a calibrated 90% prediction interval with an average width of 0.19 PMV units and 3.3%PPD—both within the ASHRAE 55 acceptable range
(c)
On practical deployment
-
The validated XGBoost model was deployed as a free, publicly accessible web application (S-TCML) that allows architects to input room geometry and receive instant PMV and PPD predictions with uncertainty ranges, without requiring any simulation software or coding skills.
-
The dataset and source code are shared publicly, addressing the transparency gap identified in prior ML studies and enabling other researchers to build on this work.
The S-TCML framework demonstrates that transparent, geometry-aware surrogate models can successfully replace iterative physics-based simulations during early-stage architectural design, turning a process that previously took hours into one that takes milliseconds—and making evidence-based thermal comfort evaluation accessible to every practitioner from the very first design decision.

6. Limitations and Future Work

While the model is accurate for the West Cairo context, its current application is limited to air-conditioned office spaces with a single exposed facade. A significant limitation stems from the use of monthly simulation intervals rather than hourly data.
The monthly simulations in EnergyPlus utilize average temperatures, which effectively smooths out the data and eliminates peak hot days.
Future research could expand this framework to include predicting multiple glazing facades and multi-zone interactions to account for internal heat transfer between adjacent rooms. Also, future research could (1) extend the dataset to include double-facade configurations (e.g., north–south, east–west exposed walls), (2) introduce floor position as an additional parameter (ground floor with slab boundary vs. top floor with roof exposure), and (3) retrain and fine-tune the model on these expanded configurations. Additionally, a transition to hourly datasets is highly recommended to enable the prediction of specific design days, thereby providing a more accurate and robust assessment of architectural performance under peak climatic stress.
Synthetic Data Dependency: The model is trained on EnergyPlus-generated data; real-world field validation is planned.
Due to fixed metabolic rate and clothing level predictions for populations with significantly different metabolic rates (e.g., standing/active work) or clothing norms, the model would require retraining with adjusted personal variable assumptions. This design choice prioritizes early-stage applicability where occupant diversity cannot be known, while the limitation is now transparently reported.
While the developed surrogate model demonstrates high accuracy in predicting thermal comfort within the specific context of Cairo’s hot–arid climate, currently, the model utilizes seasonal indexing as a proxy for climatic conditions to isolate the sensitivity of architectural parameters. This approach, while effective for site-specific design optimization, limits the model’s direct applicability to diverse climatic zones without retraining.
Also, it is recommended that the month index be replaced with CDD/HDD derived from a full EPW file, which is identified as a priority enhancement for future work, as it would simultaneously address both the temporal resolution limitation and improve climate transferability of the framework.
Future research is encouraged to measure PPD using Fanger’s equation, as it is a simpler method.

Author Contributions

Conceptualization, M.E.-S.M. and D.S.N.; methodology, M.E.-S.M. and D.S.N.; software, M.E.-S.M.; validation, M.E.-S.M. and D.S.N.; formal analysis, M.E.-S.M. and D.S.N.; investigation, M.E.-S.M. and D.S.N.; resources, M.E.-S.M. and D.S.N.; data curation, M.E.-S.M. and D.S.N.; writing—original draft preparation, M.E.-S.M. and D.S.N.; writing—review and editing, M.E.-S.M. and D.S.N.; visualization, M.E.-S.M. and D.S.N.; supervision, M.E.-S.M., D.S.N., N.A.M., and R.F.A.-K.; project administration, M.E.-S.M., D.S.N., N.A.M., and R.F.A.-K. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

Funding

This research received no external funding.

Institutional Review Board Statement

Not applicable.

Informed Consent Statement

Not applicable.

Data Availability Statement

The ML models’ data are available and can be accessed via the GitHub repository at https://github.com/mmoeattv/mlcomfortcalculator (accessed on 2 March 2026). The repository is maintained, and any access issues should be reported to the corresponding author.

Acknowledgments

During the preparation of this manuscript, the authors used GenAI [Gemin3, chatGpt5.2] for [rephrasing text and performing a grammar check], (NOTEBOOK LM for comparing previous results in the literature), (Claudi code for modifying ML training code), and (Canva AI for GUI interface coding and design). The authors have reviewed and edited the output and take full responsibility for the content of this publication.

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest. The funders had no role in the design of the study; in the collection, analyses, or interpretation of data; in the writing of the manuscript; or in the decision to publish the results.

Abbreviations

The following abbreviations are used in this manuscript:
AECArchitecture, Engineering, and Construction
ANNArtificial Neural Network
ASHRAEAmerican Society of Heating, Refrigerating, and Air-Conditioning Engineers
BIMBuilding Information Modeling
BPSBuilding Performance Simulation
CBECenter for the Built Environment
CFDComputational Fluid Dynamics
cloUnit of clothing insulation (1 clo = 0.155 m2·°C/W)
CVCross-Validation
ECP 306Egyptian Code for Energy Efficiency in Buildings (Decree 306)
EnergyPlusU.S. DOE open-source building energy simulation engine
GUIGraphical User Interface
HVACHeating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning
IoTInternet of Things
ISOInternational Organization for Standardization
KDEKernel Density Estimate
LassoLeast Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator
MAEMean Absolute Error
MENAMiddle East and North Africa
metMetabolic Equivalent of Task (1 met = 58.2 W/m2)
MLMachine Learning
MLRMultiple Linear Regression
MOEAMulti-Objective Evolutionary Algorithm
MRTMean Radiant Temperature
PIPrediction Interval
PMVPredicted Mean Vote (Fanger, ISO 7730)
PPDPredicted Percentage of Dissatisfied (Fanger, ISO 7730)
R2Coefficient of Determination
RFRandom Forest
RMSERoot Mean Square Error
S-TCMLSurrogate Thermal Comfort Machine Learning (this study’s framework)
sDASpatial Daylight Autonomy
SHAPSHapley Additive exPlanations
SHGCSolar Heat Gain Coefficient
SVRSupport Vector Regression
TCDB IIASHRAE Global Thermal Comfort Database II
TSVThermal Sensation Vote
U-valueThermal Transmittance [W/m2K]
WebGLWeb Graphics Library
WWRWindow-to-Wall Ratio
XGBoostExtreme Gradient Boosting

Appendix A

Table A1. Hyperparameter tuning search space ranges and results and cross-validation performance.
Table A1. Hyperparameter tuning search space ranges and results and cross-validation performance.
IdentifiersHyperparameter DetailsCross-Validation Performance
TargetModelHyperparameterSearch SpaceBest ValueBest CV R2CV R2 MeanCV R2 StdCV RMSE MeanCV MAE Mean
PMVXGBoostn_estimators[100, 200, 300, 500]5000.9997620.9997730.0000310.0091820.006632
max_depth[3, 5, 7, 9]5
learning_rate[0.01, 0.05, 0.1, 0.2]0.1
subsample[0.6, 0.8, 1.0]0.8
colsample_bytree[0.6, 0.8, 1.0]1.0
min_child_weight[1, 3, 5]3
Random Forestn_estimators[100, 200, 300, 500]5000.9790470.9790470.0017170.0882840.067875
max_depth[None, 10, 20, 30]None
min_samples_split[2, 5, 10]2
min_samples_leaf[1, 2, 4]1
max_features[‘sqrt’, ‘log2’, 0.5]0.5
SVRC[0.1, 1, 10, 100]1000.9818620.9818620.0020700.0820610.055089
gamma[‘scale’, ‘auto’, 0.01, 0.1]0.1
kernel[‘rbf’, ‘linear’, ‘poly’]rbf
epsilon[0.01, 0.1, 0.2]0.01
Ridgealpha[0.001, 0.01, 0.1, 1, 10, 100, 1000]100.1260360.1260360.0340120.5707480.490618
Lassoalpha[0.0001, 0.001, 0.01, 0.1, 1, 10]0.00010.1260110.1260110.0342040.5707550.490480
ANNhidden_layer_sizes[(64,), (128,), (64, 64), (128, 64), (128, 64, 32)](64, 64)0.9967550.9967550.0013070.0341920.025304
activation[‘relu’, ‘tanh’]relu
alpha[0.0001, 0.001, 0.01]0.01
learning_rate_init[0.001, 0.01]0.01
PPDXGBoostn_estimators[100, 200, 300, 500]5000.9948780.9951690.0007670.4579420.299592
max_depth[3, 5, 7, 9]5
learning_rate[0.01, 0.05, 0.1, 0.2]0.1
subsample[0.6, 0.8, 1.0]0.8
colsample_bytree[0.6, 0.8, 1.0]1.0
min_child_weight[1, 3, 5]3
Random Forestn_estimators[100, 200, 300, 500]5000.9004580.9004580.0068502.0829221.545660
max_depth[None, 10, 20, 30]None
min_samples_split[2, 5, 10]2
min_samples_leaf[1, 2, 4]1
max_features[‘sqrt’, ‘log2’, 0.5]0.5
SVRC[0.1, 1, 10, 100]1000.6367480.6367480.0268523.9780532.973582
gamma[‘scale’, ‘auto’, 0.01, 0.1]scale
kernel[‘rbf’, ‘linear’, ‘poly’]rbf
epsilon[0.01, 0.1, 0.2]0.2
Ridgealpha[0.001, 0.01, 0.1, 1, 10, 100, 1000]1000.0357490.0357490.0185836.4884515.330505
Lassoalpha[0.0001, 0.001, 0.01, 0.1, 1, 10]0.010.0355380.0355380.0193516.4891015.333022
ANNhidden_layer_sizes[(64,), (128,), (64, 64), (128, 64), (128, 64, 32)](128, 64, 32)0.9968900.9968900.0010170.3636940.226318
activation[‘relu’, ‘tanh’]tanh
alpha[0.0001, 0.001, 0.01]0.001
learning_rate_init[0.001, 0.01]0.001
Table A2. Test dataset used to validate ML model prediction accuracy.
Table A2. Test dataset used to validate ML model prediction accuracy.
MonthExterior Wall WidthRoom DepthGlazing Facade OrientationWWRIndoor Operative TempIndoor Air TempIndoor Mean Rad TempIndoor Relative HumidityPMVPPD
7621800.625.791524.1351327.4478760.297640.74506416.68876
724900.926.5246724.4039828.6453558.288240.9272423.1584
6641800.324.9227323.9839925.8614851.623860.447579.179787
72200.925.8980324.1698727.6261959.979420.77116717.53008
12261800.922.980721.5443824.4170144.62262−0.140725.410286
12442700.620.44520.0024620.8875447.69714−0.7831617.92632
12962700.320.458520.1363920.7806147.71022−0.7773217.73255
64400.1524.9506924.1810825.720350.98230.4531829.286003
7492700.325.9321224.7943827.0698656.803940.76659517.3806
7922700.627.2762124.1119830.4404460.221461.13840732.29435
1044900.324.0415823.1153824.9677753.43840.2189085.994063
324900.922.1451421.013523.2767833.91004−0.431048.874743
1166900.922.237921.2816523.1941550.04637−0.297056.833458
622900.1525.2286524.0140626.4432351.211820.52412110.74577
12962700.1520.3749720.1601420.5897947.71086−0.7975218.40908
114600.1521.369821.250121.489550.61327−0.5115310.47081
924900.625.2793923.8980626.6607258.953330.59597412.44633
5662700.1524.3864823.3727225.4002443.138840.2341976.138092
39200.1520.2829220.4205720.1452736.35742−0.8892321.69491
84900.325.3133124.6722725.9543559.403970.62464613.18743
11291800.623.5543922.4181424.6906446.969590.0350125.025377
764900.927.0996424.40529.7942758.333471.08068529.63733
1221800.321.9952720.9170723.0734636.41695−0.453569.293176
546900.925.3454723.3807427.3102142.652860.4796339.804916
9292700.625.2618624.1627326.36157.603670.58606212.19843
24200.919.6805220.0707619.2902742.49939−1.0040726.29143
3442700.321.6120820.781922.4422734.41513−0.5646111.67647
82200.324.8729724.0102625.7356762.590720.52157910.6897
11642700.621.8343920.8737822.79551.45272−0.396758.27944
39400.320.7601420.6964220.8238635.42162−0.7715117.54146
7691800.1525.5297224.8633326.1961257.183370.66646514.33231
10991800.625.8525324.0506627.6544150.181080.67950814.70487
9942700.926.38123.6139529.1480459.817910.88743121.62715
699900.626.077924.4020927.753749.847760.74126916.56885
1691800.321.7640420.8795622.6485236.93738−0.5088910.41394
9962700.926.1776223.7971428.5580959.05170.83065519.55565
96600.624.6834523.9072325.4596859.302240.4445919.123954
1264900.320.4666420.2980520.6352247.78926−0.7718417.55224
8992700.325.9701324.6370127.3032659.169480.79284318.25081
1262900.320.1945520.1188220.2702848.05123−0.8406719.91117
1942700.320.2581719.9527320.5636138.86589−0.8845721.51968
599900.625.2148823.6587926.7709842.068980.4442059.116735
106900.1523.9738823.605924.3418652.283540.2021265.847233
10491800.625.5918824.0668927.1168850.100660.61083912.82609
342900.321.7002420.8936822.5067934.43851−0.5410411.12603
2461800.322.0379621.035623.0403339.5896−0.420548.687157
79400.625.8721524.4206627.3236358.734190.75934317.14538
4421800.923.7368521.7322125.7414837.33180.0060045.000746
1169900.622.3531621.6429923.0633448.65914−0.271086.525926
69600.625.4664124.166726.7661250.798290.5852212.17755
222900.921.3462620.5048822.1876541.03203−0.5923612.35532
1221800.623.0024921.3373124.6676635.82556−0.196875.803687
1249900.920.9276620.5292421.3260947.08412−0.6578914.09124
1144900.1521.7497121.3467722.1526449.88924−0.419728.672677
3621800.923.9937321.5116626.4758133.035320.0405555.034049
644900.325.6361424.1811627.0911250.654850.62859113.2922
6992700.626.073624.2325927.914650.155790.74009916.53203
12692700.920.8025820.2381121.3670547.38539−0.6921915.07408
10462700.924.5516222.9003226.2029253.695250.3485647.527827
869900.325.8250224.7240726.9259758.845270.75404816.97503
11492700.1522.0615121.6439322.4790948.99371−0.342187.435625
1122900.921.9505820.8927623.008451.31149−0.368047.819666
629900.325.3704424.538526.2023749.486060.55585711.46926
3692700.622.10121.06223.1399933.72695−0.44299.092345
949900.625.4663224.2946826.6379657.264210.63910913.57481
62600.625.1014924.1807226.0222550.691130.48983410.01309
11262700.621.7854621.1246622.4462750.50548−0.410748.516227
4621800.923.8216321.725825.9174637.358090.0280135.016245
5991800.924.536723.3177725.7556443.172910.2724556.541541
122400.619.7418419.908819.5748849.08845−0.951524.12251
10222700.924.582622.4256826.7395255.18070.3595517.690492
56200.924.5292722.9273526.1311943.507380.2680366.491802
1992700.920.8200520.156721.483438.51266−0.7445116.6713
72600.925.5886324.489526.6877658.140930.681914.77402
8691800.1525.4956924.7270426.2643459.108140.67063414.45059
5922700.1524.3223822.8519625.7928144.049550.2175175.981443
1421800.923.8940321.5217226.2663435.56540.0325565.021941
4621800.322.9109321.7151624.1067137.72862−0.203395.857861
3961800.1522.0015621.2052222.797933.65131−0.466949.552158
1262700.320.3607220.1024720.6189738.57513−0.8588220.56646
11241800.1522.4239721.598123.2498449.07085−0.251166.309346
1691800.622.4875321.2039123.7711536.49812−0.325127.197824
542900.925.9353223.043728.8269442.960130.63412913.44039
8241800.625.4586924.1819426.7354461.185320.66613814.32306
4491800.623.3194522.3576324.2812836.17648−0.10295.21929
2492700.921.2633420.4518422.0748540.75579−0.6156312.95045
126200.619.1300319.6456818.6143849.63409−1.1026730.63618
3462700.621.9904520.8941423.0867733.96349−0.471039.632868
11642700.321.6200720.9671122.2730251.24536−0.450259.230397
12492700.920.7723520.2489321.2957747.33863−0.6998115.29934
7642700.626.7741224.3287529.2194858.912560.99717926.00102
2641800.923.960521.6531326.2678738.668840.0722085.107957
892900.626.6815724.0516129.3115461.88070.99123925.75221
146900.920.6873420.3386521.0360338.79389−0.7731417.59497
2921800.1521.7311820.6998722.7624940.31915−0.4975510.1736
54900.1524.2429623.7282524.7576742.494420.1973835.807869
5262700.924.9323523.1286926.7360142.722180.3693867.840477
11242700.921.7997620.8296422.7698951.44854−0.406298.439957
112200.1520.5872520.6195620.5549352.94709−0.7029815.39384
11942700.922.0534620.7938523.3130651.65827−0.341517.426041
826900.925.9689724.3389427.5989960.074610.79389518.2863
10291800.324.73923.8702825.6077350.617060.3902638.172504
5642700.324.66223.1015326.2224743.408110.3038866.919134
1024900.1523.8091923.2226424.3957453.111820.1590455.524213
446900.323.4581322.5279224.3883435.71494−0.068975.098476
9221800.325.4014623.8901526.9127658.810060.62650513.23672
12200.619.3369119.7875718.8862539.7385−1.1096930.95841
64900.1525.1709724.552925.7890349.814550.50717810.37735
1642700.1520.0800219.9311220.2289239.05424−0.9276623.17497
11222700.921.8170120.6011723.0328452.02259−0.402338.3729
2492700.321.0041120.5440521.4641840.71614−0.6792414.69703
12291800.622.2753521.3266923.2240144.76339−0.322177.158008
8641800.325.4681624.2461626.6901661.076950.66910714.40717
2221800.1521.5237520.7097922.3377140.28628−0.5497711.32699
6662700.926.5093223.9506329.0680150.844010.8568920.49626
222900.621.1511720.5048321.797541.11868−0.640613.61518
126600.619.8316519.9774419.6858649.07365−0.9282323.19739
142900.1519.9839720.0905719.8773639.45414−0.9462923.91367
996900.925.9513223.9765727.9260658.566550.7703317.50265
116600.1521.3553621.2332521.4774750.68482−0.5149810.54538
62400.1524.8294524.1922625.4666350.92650.4216798.707266
6291800.324.9413124.4000325.4825950.253260.4488149.203203
6991800.1525.1256424.4484325.8028450.268260.49732510.16883
9242700.324.9853823.8322926.1384659.228020.52043210.6645
366900.922.3620921.1153823.6087933.81497−0.375677.938426
1149900.922.3100421.5224123.0976749.05599−0.281346.644018
7691800.925.8050924.5906327.0195657.725740.7369816.43411
4961800.323.1757322.2432524.108236.6009−0.137795.393373
1024900.924.2280822.8650525.5911254.211670.2680566.49202
42600.922.5593421.9913723.127337.24751−0.292556.778171
10422700.624.4285422.4787626.3783355.209370.3205277.135965
92200.1524.0802523.5799524.5805460.982260.2955656.815118
8462700.926.5401424.20328.8772760.837250.94812323.9871
74600.1525.4256724.750826.1005457.573250.6403713.609
94400.924.6149823.6216525.6083160.363360.4290318.838506
1126900.321.9803721.5509822.4097649.04754−0.363857.755597
669900.325.6773224.5252526.829449.571410.63609313.49327
10692700.924.665323.156826.173852.871190.376257.947585
1621800.1521.4146220.5656222.2636237.02696−0.5999512.54693
324900.321.6920821.0966222.2875334.01109−0.5435411.18336
5692700.324.6895223.5382225.8408242.535570.3099666.996992
342900.1521.4087820.8806221.9369534.73291−0.612312.86393
10292700.1524.1432723.6391724.6473751.695690.2414896.210245
4442700.323.1688821.9620324.3757337.10998−0.139115.400922
7461800.925.7380124.4196327.0563958.532990.72262115.98872
34200.1520.3520.4505820.2494236.17889−0.8734121.10329
922900.1524.7905823.8059425.7752159.692960.4731079.674088
8261800.625.4072124.3496426.4647860.326030.64944613.85724
12921800.623.4023421.2944925.5101944.53942−0.036495.027568
7641800.1525.3193224.50626.1326558.745050.61721612.99197
8992700.926.6573224.3975528.917159.848840.97488725.07431
7941800.625.7693724.3422927.1964459.119250.73400116.34097
99200.624.4836323.4456325.5216261.296530.3984858.308371
6241800.1524.6388224.0577825.2198651.497160.3747277.923642
2641800.1521.5879820.7329322.4430440.35865−0.5328610.9406
8622700.927.5138923.8099831.2178163.192761.22090636.27533
29200.919.5352520.0370819.0334242.70659−1.0388227.78254
11922700.321.3884320.6301322.1467452.31609−0.5076410.38723
9442700.1524.9484623.9017725.9951559.169080.51185410.47779
1244900.1520.3617220.282320.4411347.86259−0.7975718.41066
46400.1522.3758322.0537522.6979237.52405−0.336047.348648
7442700.927.1057224.2589329.9525159.121251.08624429.88832
89400.1525.0744624.3351725.8137661.156940.56960611.79625
1294900.920.6609120.2752721.0465647.8054−0.7240816.03347
34200.320.4840420.5129720.455135.6435−0.8408519.9178
46400.622.4974121.8764623.1183537.64148−0.306916.957639
129400.919.437519.818719.0563149.58455−1.0246227.16748
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9422700.325.2826623.5186527.0466760.587760.60193212.59738
766900.626.4731924.6124628.3339157.436720.91047122.50557
696900.325.7753624.3408327.2098950.154050.66349214.24841
2691800.622.7540221.3721324.1359238.94028−0.23916.186326
94900.1524.8484724.4029125.2940457.588840.484159.896545
34600.321.0451720.9015621.1887834.89078−0.7015615.35139
2962700.1520.7366720.3711321.1022141.37631−0.7441416.65939
7492700.626.2576924.6804727.8349157.049290.85176120.31011
1991800.622.5758821.1993523.9524136.51655−0.302586.902576
262900.921.4041520.4904322.3178741.19748−0.5769911.97537
2441800.623.1418921.4339624.8498239.02335−0.138665.39836
12421800.923.9401721.5153526.36544.200590.1028235.218963
362900.922.4677420.8693724.0661134.15252−0.349127.535881
12291800.1521.333620.849521.817745.35631−0.562411.62391
10242700.323.8385922.9350924.7420853.89650.1669225.577485
12222700.1519.8265619.7602819.8928448.25657−0.9366923.53112
1092900.624.4112222.6749926.1474454.972230.3176537.097674
5421800.1523.6896522.8992224.4800844.317060.0575815.068644
1261800.922.9183421.4978924.3387836.12342−0.214795.956897
5661800.1524.0686823.4102724.7270943.262750.1540945.49205
8262700.1525.3452124.5139426.1764859.861930.63316113.41441
6921800.925.5017723.6185327.3850252.418090.59835512.50651
8992700.1525.7624924.7135126.8114759.038780.7391216.50126
12400.1519.5634819.7606419.3663140.53007−1.0500828.27493
84200.1524.8253824.0530425.5977262.573020.51014810.44103
11492700.922.1217621.2495222.99450.01611−0.327137.225288
72900.925.5628524.6559826.4697257.323170.67191914.48722
5661800.324.1498723.3319624.9677843.350680.1744385.630734
8442700.626.3481724.1126228.5837261.473050.90058922.12615
9491800.1525.235724.4442626.0271456.841750.57885912.02095
11961800.924.9111522.4507527.3715447.728160.3924198.207848
86900.325.3721224.6691326.0751159.431750.64001613.5994
11242700.321.5134120.9984822.0283351.09895−0.477339.758547
4991800.323.3532322.5207624.185735.93805−0.094195.183714
1222900.620.4133920.180720.6460947.46475−0.7891918.12794
749900.626.1977224.7732227.6222256.671330.83462819.69625
12291800.321.6772421.0195722.334945.13623−0.475089.713412
102600.923.4249822.9096723.9402854.3410.0642115.085364
744900.326.0294524.5697227.4891757.887360.79658618.37729
39200.620.5206920.52420.5173935.35852−0.8334719.65518
12991800.923.245821.4970624.9945444.73654−0.072675.109338
896900.1525.6831224.607226.7590459.473860.7197815.90166
62900.1525.0538724.5628825.5448649.755020.476679.745273
642900.325.7953823.9566427.6341351.300950.67190914.48691
39200.920.5459220.5284120.5634435.15725−0.8284719.47843
892900.326.0299324.1240627.9358161.666230.81832919.12369
4442700.1522.9022322.0385523.7659137.1342−0.205965.87971
5992700.925.4314823.2948927.5680742.649360.50123410.25106
9641800.1525.1255923.977226.2739858.71650.55575511.46688
7942700.326.2467624.4224728.0710458.651940.85709920.50387
469900.623.8411422.6185125.0637635.377320.0275965.015764
66400.925.6558523.9421227.3695751.386970.63576713.48448
542900.324.8258923.1669126.4848743.110120.3450257.476517
22600.620.3230320.3234320.3226442.03434−0.8430119.99486
10491800.1524.6326123.7863725.4788551.038650.3646677.768003
196900.1520.4303820.3229820.5377838.93308−0.8360619.74715
1029900.624.2446123.4868825.0023451.932590.2664616.47426
4422700.1522.7596121.6964823.8227437.90596−0.240896.204233
3941800.623.1984121.4292424.9675833.17621−0.163625.554847
11241800.323.007221.8658424.1485548.67672−0.101395.212897
11241800.924.5278822.4308126.6249448.066860.294436.801145
5622700.625.5552722.7885128.3220243.260270.5332810.95008
74200.325.47224.2979526.6460459.66560.65990114.14758
62200.324.9328323.8922725.9733951.655340.4488339.203568
46200.322.139721.683322.596138.20376−0.395668.261293
2621800.1521.6930520.7014622.6846440.30889−0.507210.37774
1196900.1522.0433521.5877522.4989549.0161−0.34767.513752
2442700.621.0339520.2517821.8161341.31039−0.6723514.49949
849900.926.1660124.5150627.8169659.278390.84269819.98388
3641800.623.1162321.4352324.7972433.15668−0.184775.707736
492900.1523.10222.0656324.1383736.9866−0.155875.503472
1066900.924.5539523.070226.037753.452680.3502627.552631
6262700.325.2644624.1787426.3501850.481810.53037610.88491
4621800.1522.6339221.7651423.5027137.76509−0.272926.546827
662900.1525.4793824.0092426.9495251.276250.58982712.29208
8222700.926.9320523.8136630.0504463.12881.06375328.8796
1221800.1521.2705720.5717721.9693837.00333−0.6360913.49309
1166900.1522.0260421.5955622.4565248.98688−0.3527.578161
5961800.324.1972923.3278125.0667743.367910.1866765.722473
229900.321.2205320.8843721.5566940.15725−0.6238813.16708
7622700.1525.8392224.2233727.4550759.954160.756617.05698
6941800.324.9663523.9793625.9533551.652810.4589969.39748
24600.1520.2245120.2664220.182642.37991−0.8660520.8312
2642700.320.7519620.230421.2735341.6127−0.7410216.56115
7621800.1525.2179224.2499126.1859460.027530.59579412.44177
29400.619.9413120.154219.7284342.71375−0.9374723.56214
992900.625.8986223.6628128.1344460.097870.7626217.2514
864900.1525.5816724.4288326.7345160.241070.69582815.18144
72600.625.4774524.5757926.379157.881950.65266113.94601
8941800.1525.3295624.3013426.3577760.992550.63358813.42586
446900.1523.3057322.6069324.0045335.63992−0.107465.239172
11462700.321.8026821.2398722.365550.24462−0.406048.435829
10642700.1523.8687523.0026724.7348453.9520.1763325.644523
129900.1520.2242420.193120.2553848.10262−0.8316319.59
82900.1525.1914824.7538625.629159.236930.59364312.38764
1042900.1523.695722.8492724.5421354.541510.1334915.369171
12642700.620.4510919.9872520.9149447.77154−0.7814617.86992
116600.321.3239421.1816321.4662550.82532−0.5228710.71815
8421800.926.2659823.9154228.6165462.75030.88510421.53961
5292700.324.4084723.5753225.2416342.36990.2367526.16312
164900.920.583120.2643620.9018438.91956−0.7992718.4684
744900.1525.755324.6344526.8761457.784240.7253416.0724
696900.926.5752224.1453629.0050750.626850.87528321.17273
5441800.323.9888623.1364224.841343.763250.1334735.369071
1922700.920.577219.910521.2438938.29786−0.8096818.82426
546900.1524.5459923.67325.4189842.165020.271876.534908
96200.1524.1544823.5745824.7343761.065710.3150677.063528
39400.920.828220.6745820.9818235.06612−0.7572517.07794
1422700.620.4010419.9105220.8915538.36031−0.8529620.35366
166900.320.5322220.3524220.7120138.80478−0.8112718.87927
8292700.925.9490524.4138527.4842659.75550.78760418.07477
6421800.625.1156123.6695626.5616752.339670.49776410.17802
11461800.623.989722.2876225.6917747.76560.1507025.470603
6961800.925.3615723.9656726.7574751.478930.55999711.56687
3291800.322.1115121.4588422.7641833.06403−0.440419.046254
6222700.926.7544623.6146929.8942351.640130.92427823.04224
74900.625.6808924.7395726.6222157.126420.70268515.3851
6422700.325.7342923.7158927.7526951.822940.65628314.04658
3662700.922.3316420.8333323.8299633.94701−0.38548.093441
1661800.1521.3106420.6223621.9989237.43199−0.6226713.13515
16200.1518.9543219.5009218.4077341.45084−1.1972535.11302
11441800.924.9049522.3993627.4105348.133380.3930198.21773
12642700.920.581519.9814621.1815447.66639−0.7498716.84143
22400.620.1340720.2157720.0523742.33559−0.8894221.70211
16400.619.4772419.8410919.113440.24698−1.071529.22512
464900.323.4474922.297124.5978836.31387−0.069885.101101
2942700.320.7608120.2171921.3044441.6716−0.7386616.48674
6622700.1525.3276123.7404726.9147652.049840.55191811.37709
5642700.625.2486223.0131727.4840743.167750.4541299.304068
74900.925.7774924.6484326.9065557.393250.72820816.16097
11491800.1522.7573421.9901123.5245747.60688−0.170285.600958
52400.1523.8049523.3071524.3027443.613250.0878575.159838
5261800.624.0511923.2279724.874443.391130.1479655.453648
1122900.621.7809520.9438522.6180451.19095−0.410658.514646
4291800.923.2022822.2516824.1528936.33369−0.132835.365504
11441800.624.2088122.2100426.2075748.313080.2102345.9167
5641800.324.0466123.1307924.9624443.796860.1484475.456615
7262700.926.3608924.412228.3095758.25080.88377421.48972
1921800.322.2524120.9012823.6035436.46791−0.388328.140786
3492700.321.8422121.1730522.5113833.71241−0.5069710.37287
94600.324.6144824.0540225.1749358.877730.4267038.796707
969900.325.3926224.4346326.3506156.85760.6194613.05074
114900.1521.7606321.5729721.9482849.48488−0.415488.598446
1046900.1524.1195223.4882924.7507652.186970.2363716.159373
126600.919.7829119.9741519.5916849.11651−0.9399723.6616
5441800.1523.8602823.1924124.5281543.800250.1016765.214099
96900.624.842524.1470225.5379858.326290.4830139.873392
7461800.625.5946124.5076426.6815858.256570.68476414.85709
3442700.622.0108120.7561123.2655134.15586−0.466099.53537
522900.925.6184523.0459228.1909842.835120.54933811.31708
11692700.922.1876821.2385323.1368350.07342−0.31037.001348
12491800.1521.4315920.8232622.0399245.48164−0.5375411.04624
294900.621.295720.5891922.002241.23996−0.6024812.61128
84600.625.274424.3416826.2071160.608770.6170812.98839
326900.621.9626621.1943922.7309233.63713−0.476959.750853
59400.324.1107123.2496324.9717943.63440.1653615.566727
8962700.626.4591324.2908528.627460.52850.92581823.10257
11992700.922.242921.232423.253450.10392−0.296256.823542
82400.324.9527924.2754725.6301161.159050.53686411.03103
26600.320.2229220.2761920.1696642.30631−0.8667320.85644
4221800.322.7131821.7226523.7037237.68939−0.253856.337698
2491800.1521.535520.8920722.1789339.85331−0.5470911.26495
54200.323.9243323.0163124.8323543.920210.1163855.280568
76200.325.5352124.2994826.7709459.668930.67641914.61597
1069900.924.5901923.3228425.8575452.508570.356917.650931
962900.926.2584423.6019828.9149160.245170.85792220.53385
1249900.620.9228420.5876521.2580446.85087−0.6595414.1375
224900.621.1705320.6059221.7351541.05051−0.6347113.45599
7261800.925.5045124.424226.5848258.474950.66138414.18915
1492700.320.5586420.2289420.8883438.35144−0.8094118.81491
129600.919.7231919.9484519.4979449.2633−0.954224.23145
8492700.1525.6070224.7219526.4920959.006490.69858215.263
992900.1525.034123.8038626.2643559.75240.53655811.02409
11442700.621.7872120.8846322.6897951.38738−0.408868.483896
109400.1523.34422.9956823.6923154.506060.0466115.044979
1242700.320.2382519.990620.485938.71463−0.8898621.71859
16900.919.9477220.0552119.8402439.7637−0.9538324.21672
54200.1523.7143823.0238124.4049644.196350.0648635.087109
6641800.1524.7932724.0394825.5470651.57410.4147488.585652
102200.322.9880922.5785523.3976355.76912−0.042915.03812
6942700.325.7591223.9594527.5587951.230720.66188114.20312
106400.1523.3397523.00223.677554.460640.0453275.042533
36900.621.2781421.0267921.5294834.45874−0.6448513.73107
669900.625.967924.4036627.5321549.829230.7122715.67319
19600.1519.6799219.8449219.5149240.35534−1.0212727.02366

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Figure 1. Summary of key insights from previous studies.
Figure 1. Summary of key insights from previous studies.
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Figure 2. Methodology flow chart outlining the process of creating ML models for optimizing early design decisions through predicting PMV and PPD.
Figure 2. Methodology flow chart outlining the process of creating ML models for optimizing early design decisions through predicting PMV and PPD.
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Figure 3. The parametric energy simulation workflow shows the seven main preparation steps: (1) define inputs, (2) assign materials, (3) assign schedules, (4) define HVAC system properties, (5) assign simulation properties, (6) run the energy simulation, and (7) collect results.
Figure 3. The parametric energy simulation workflow shows the seven main preparation steps: (1) define inputs, (2) assign materials, (3) assign schedules, (4) define HVAC system properties, (5) assign simulation properties, (6) run the energy simulation, and (7) collect results.
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Figure 4. West Cairo weather file analysis for monthly dry bulb temperature and maximum temperatures recorded in each month based on [43].
Figure 4. West Cairo weather file analysis for monthly dry bulb temperature and maximum temperatures recorded in each month based on [43].
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Figure 5. The parametric model design variation samples show the possibilities of different widths, depths, and Window-to-Wall Ratios.
Figure 5. The parametric model design variation samples show the possibilities of different widths, depths, and Window-to-Wall Ratios.
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Figure 6. The ML model training workflow.
Figure 6. The ML model training workflow.
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Figure 7. Distribution analysis of the main dataset. Frequency histograms (bars) and kernel density estimate (KDE) orange curves are shown for each input feature (month, wall width [m], room depth [m], glazing facade orientation [°], WWR [%]) and both target variables (PMV and PPD [%]).
Figure 7. Distribution analysis of the main dataset. Frequency histograms (bars) and kernel density estimate (KDE) orange curves are shown for each input feature (month, wall width [m], room depth [m], glazing facade orientation [°], WWR [%]) and both target variables (PMV and PPD [%]).
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Figure 8. Feature interaction analysis of the generated dataset. (a) Pearson correlation matrix between all input features and thermal comfort indices (PMV and PPD). BLUE cells indicate positive correlations, RED cells indicate negative correlations, and light blue cells represent near-zero relationships. (b) Scatter plot illustrates the physical relationship between Predicted Mean Vote (PMV) and Predicted Percentage Dissatisfied (PPD), color-coded by month.
Figure 8. Feature interaction analysis of the generated dataset. (a) Pearson correlation matrix between all input features and thermal comfort indices (PMV and PPD). BLUE cells indicate positive correlations, RED cells indicate negative correlations, and light blue cells represent near-zero relationships. (b) Scatter plot illustrates the physical relationship between Predicted Mean Vote (PMV) and Predicted Percentage Dissatisfied (PPD), color-coded by month.
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Figure 9. Seasonal interaction between month and the Window-to-Wall Ratio (WWR) on thermal sensation (PMV). (A) Mean PMV by month (1–12) for WWR = 15%, 60%, and 90% (solid, dashed, and dotted lines, respectively). (B) Mean PMV per season for each WWR level. Horizontal dashed lines mark the ASHRAE 55 comfort range (PMV ± 0.5).
Figure 9. Seasonal interaction between month and the Window-to-Wall Ratio (WWR) on thermal sensation (PMV). (A) Mean PMV by month (1–12) for WWR = 15%, 60%, and 90% (solid, dashed, and dotted lines, respectively). (B) Mean PMV per season for each WWR level. Horizontal dashed lines mark the ASHRAE 55 comfort range (PMV ± 0.5).
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Figure 10. PMV learning curve analysis. X-axis: number of training samples; Y-axis: R2 (dimensionless). Solid blue line: training set; dashed red line: test set. Sub-panels: XGBoost, Random Forest, ANN, SVR, Ridge, Lasso.
Figure 10. PMV learning curve analysis. X-axis: number of training samples; Y-axis: R2 (dimensionless). Solid blue line: training set; dashed red line: test set. Sub-panels: XGBoost, Random Forest, ANN, SVR, Ridge, Lasso.
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Figure 11. PPD learning curve analysis. X-axis: number of training samples; Y-axis: R2 (dimensionless). Solid blue line: training set; dashed red line: test set. Sub-panels: XGBoost, Random Forest, ANN, SVR, Ridge, Lasso.
Figure 11. PPD learning curve analysis. X-axis: number of training samples; Y-axis: R2 (dimensionless). Solid blue line: training set; dashed red line: test set. Sub-panels: XGBoost, Random Forest, ANN, SVR, Ridge, Lasso.
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Figure 12. Quantitative analysis of the performance of tested ML models to predict PMV and PPD through comparing the values of (a) R2 for PMV, (b) R2 for PPD, (c) MAE for PMV, (d) MAE for PPD, (e) RMSE for PMV, and (f) RMSE for PPD.
Figure 12. Quantitative analysis of the performance of tested ML models to predict PMV and PPD through comparing the values of (a) R2 for PMV, (b) R2 for PPD, (c) MAE for PMV, (d) MAE for PPD, (e) RMSE for PMV, and (f) RMSE for PPD.
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Figure 13. PMV scatter plot of actual vs. predicted values across six machine learning models. X-axis and Y-axis: PMV (dimensionless). The solid diagonal line represents perfect prediction (y = x). Sub-panels: (a) XGBoost, (b) Random Forest, (c) ANN, (d) SVR, (e) Ridge, (f) Lasso.
Figure 13. PMV scatter plot of actual vs. predicted values across six machine learning models. X-axis and Y-axis: PMV (dimensionless). The solid diagonal line represents perfect prediction (y = x). Sub-panels: (a) XGBoost, (b) Random Forest, (c) ANN, (d) SVR, (e) Ridge, (f) Lasso.
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Figure 14. PPD scatter plot of actual vs. predicted values across six machine learning models. X-axis and Y-axis: PMV (dimensionless). The solid diagonal line represents perfect prediction (y = x). Sub-panels: (a) XGBoost, (b) Random Forest, (c) ANN, (d) SVR, (e) Ridge, (f) Lasso.
Figure 14. PPD scatter plot of actual vs. predicted values across six machine learning models. X-axis and Y-axis: PMV (dimensionless). The solid diagonal line represents perfect prediction (y = x). Sub-panels: (a) XGBoost, (b) Random Forest, (c) ANN, (d) SVR, (e) Ridge, (f) Lasso.
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Figure 15. Q-Q plots for PMV model residuals. X-axis: theoretical standard normal quantiles; Y-axis: standardized residuals. The diagonal reference line indicates normally distributed errors. Sub-panels: (a) XGBoost, (b) Random Forest, (c) ANN, (d) SVR, (e) Ridge, (f) Lasso.
Figure 15. Q-Q plots for PMV model residuals. X-axis: theoretical standard normal quantiles; Y-axis: standardized residuals. The diagonal reference line indicates normally distributed errors. Sub-panels: (a) XGBoost, (b) Random Forest, (c) ANN, (d) SVR, (e) Ridge, (f) Lasso.
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Figure 16. Q-Q plots for PPD model residuals. X-axis: theoretical standard normal quantiles; Y-axis: standardized residuals. The diagonal reference line indicates normally distributed errors. Sub-panels: (a) XGBoost, (b) Random Forest, (c) ANN, (d) SVR, (e) Ridge, (f) Lasso.
Figure 16. Q-Q plots for PPD model residuals. X-axis: theoretical standard normal quantiles; Y-axis: standardized residuals. The diagonal reference line indicates normally distributed errors. Sub-panels: (a) XGBoost, (b) Random Forest, (c) ANN, (d) SVR, (e) Ridge, (f) Lasso.
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Figure 17. PMV analysis of residuals vs. fitted values. X-axis: fitted (predicted) PMV values; Y-axis: residuals (actual−predicted, PMV units). The horizontal dashed line at zero indicates unbiased predictions. Sub-panels: (a) XGBoost, (b) Random Forest, (c) ANN, (d) SVR, (e) Ridge, (f) Lasso.
Figure 17. PMV analysis of residuals vs. fitted values. X-axis: fitted (predicted) PMV values; Y-axis: residuals (actual−predicted, PMV units). The horizontal dashed line at zero indicates unbiased predictions. Sub-panels: (a) XGBoost, (b) Random Forest, (c) ANN, (d) SVR, (e) Ridge, (f) Lasso.
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Figure 18. PPD analysis of residuals vs. fitted values. X-axis: fitted (predicted) PPD values (%); Y-axis: residuals (actual−predicted, %PPD). The horizontal dashed line at zero indicates unbiased predictions. Sub-panels: (a) XGBoost, (b) Random Forest, (c) ANN, (d) SVR, (e) Ridge, (f) Lasso.
Figure 18. PPD analysis of residuals vs. fitted values. X-axis: fitted (predicted) PPD values (%); Y-axis: residuals (actual−predicted, %PPD). The horizontal dashed line at zero indicates unbiased predictions. Sub-panels: (a) XGBoost, (b) Random Forest, (c) ANN, (d) SVR, (e) Ridge, (f) Lasso.
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Figure 19. Relative feature importance for the top-performing models (XGBoost and Random Forest). X-axis: normalized feature importance score (range, 0–1). Sub-panels: (a) XGBoost for PMV, (b) Random Forest for PMV, (c) XGBoost for PPD, (d) Random Forest for PPD.
Figure 19. Relative feature importance for the top-performing models (XGBoost and Random Forest). X-axis: normalized feature importance score (range, 0–1). Sub-panels: (a) XGBoost for PMV, (b) Random Forest for PMV, (c) XGBoost for PPD, (d) Random Forest for PPD.
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Figure 20. SHAP beeswarm analysis for the XGBoost model. Top: PMV target; bottom: PPD target. X-axis: SHAP value (impact on model output in PMV units or %PPD). Color: input feature value from low (blue) to high (red) using the “viridis” colormap. Each point represents one simulation record. Features are ranked by mean absolute SHAP value, with the highest-impact feature at the top.
Figure 20. SHAP beeswarm analysis for the XGBoost model. Top: PMV target; bottom: PPD target. X-axis: SHAP value (impact on model output in PMV units or %PPD). Color: input feature value from low (blue) to high (red) using the “viridis” colormap. Each point represents one simulation record. Features are ranked by mean absolute SHAP value, with the highest-impact feature at the top.
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Figure 21. Perturbation sensitivity analysis for the XGBoost PMV model (left) and PPD model (right). Color scale: percentage change in predicted PMV or PPD (%) resulting from ±10% perturbation of each input feature.
Figure 21. Perturbation sensitivity analysis for the XGBoost PMV model (left) and PPD model (right). Color scale: percentage change in predicted PMV or PPD (%) resulting from ±10% perturbation of each input feature.
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Figure 22. PMV SHAP dependence analysis. (left) Month (x-axis, 1–12) interacting with room depth (color scale, 2–9 m); (middle) glazing facade orientation (x-axis, 0–270°) interacting with WWR (color scale); (right) WWR (x-axis, 0.15–0.90) interacting with orientation (color scale). Y-axis in all panels: SHAP value for the respective feature (PMV units).
Figure 22. PMV SHAP dependence analysis. (left) Month (x-axis, 1–12) interacting with room depth (color scale, 2–9 m); (middle) glazing facade orientation (x-axis, 0–270°) interacting with WWR (color scale); (right) WWR (x-axis, 0.15–0.90) interacting with orientation (color scale). Y-axis in all panels: SHAP value for the respective feature (PMV units).
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Figure 23. Stratified feature importance analysis by season for PMV (top) and PPD (bottom). X-axis: input feature; Y-axis: relative importance score (normalized, 0–1). Grouped bars represent the four seasons: winter, spring, summer, and autumn.
Figure 23. Stratified feature importance analysis by season for PMV (top) and PPD (bottom). X-axis: input feature; Y-axis: relative importance score (normalized, 0–1). Grouped bars represent the four seasons: winter, spring, summer, and autumn.
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Figure 24. Taylor diagrams comparing the predictive performance of six machine learning models against EnergyPlus simulation outputs for PMV (left) and PPD (right).
Figure 24. Taylor diagrams comparing the predictive performance of six machine learning models against EnergyPlus simulation outputs for PMV (left) and PPD (right).
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Figure 25. Box plots for distribution of prediction residuals (PMV = left, PPD = right) across six models (X-axis represents the models, Y-axis represents the residual value).
Figure 25. Box plots for distribution of prediction residuals (PMV = left, PPD = right) across six models (X-axis represents the models, Y-axis represents the residual value).
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Figure 26. Prediction interval analysis for the XGBoost model, test set (n = 614). Right: PPD (y-axis, %); left: PMV (y-axis, dimensionless). X-axis: test sample index. Light blue shaded band: 90% prediction interval; blue line: point prediction; red dots: actual EnergyPlus simulation values.
Figure 26. Prediction interval analysis for the XGBoost model, test set (n = 614). Right: PPD (y-axis, %); left: PMV (y-axis, dimensionless). X-axis: test sample index. Light blue shaded band: 90% prediction interval; blue line: point prediction; red dots: actual EnergyPlus simulation values.
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Figure 27. Prediction error heatmap for the PMV model. Color scale: number of prediction failures (cases falling outside the 90% prediction interval). X-axis: WWR (0.15–0.90); Y-axis: glazing facade orientation (cardinal directions).
Figure 27. Prediction error heatmap for the PMV model. Color scale: number of prediction failures (cases falling outside the 90% prediction interval). X-axis: WWR (0.15–0.90); Y-axis: glazing facade orientation (cardinal directions).
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Figure 28. GUI interface for the S-TCML for Cairo office buildings.
Figure 28. GUI interface for the S-TCML for Cairo office buildings.
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Table 3. Construction set used in the simulation, based on [39].
Table 3. Construction set used in the simulation, based on [39].
Building ElementLayer Composition (Outermost to Innermost)Thickness (m)Conductivity (λ) [W/m·K]Total U−Value [W/m2K]
Exterior Wall1. External Cement Plaster0.021.402.164
2. Red Clay Brick0.250.70
3. Internal Cement Plaster0.021.40
Floor (adiabatic)1. Reinforced Concrete Slab0.151.754.14
2. Sand Layer0.050.70
3. Cement Mortar and Tiles0.041.20
Internal Partition (adiabatic)1. Internal Plaster0.021.401.64
2. Red Clay Brick0.120.70
3. Internal Plaster0.021.40
External GlazingSingle Clear Glass (6 mm)
(Standard Aluminum Frame)
0.006-5.8 (SHGC: 0.85)
Table 4. Parametric model properties and parameters.
Table 4. Parametric model properties and parameters.
Model PropertiesParameterTypeValues/Description
Sustainability 18 03381 i001LengthVaried3 m, 6 m, 9 m
WidthVaried3 m, 6 m, 9 m
Window-to-Wall Ratio (WWR)Varied15%, 30%, 60%, 90%
OrientationVariedNorth, South, East, West
Floor LevelFixedMiddle
Floor HeightFixed3 m
Table 5. Comparison of the validation model and the selected case study with respect to energy simulation results (electricity loads).
Table 5. Comparison of the validation model and the selected case study with respect to energy simulation results (electricity loads).
Electricity Use (kWh/m2·Year)Validation Paper ResultResearch Model ResultsDifferenceNotes
Total Electricity Use176169−4%Sustainability 18 03381 i002 Within acceptable range.
Heating and Cooling Loads3027−10%Sustainability 18 03381 i002 Within acceptable range.
Appliances Loads143.5140−2.4%Sustainability 18 03381 i002 Within acceptable range.
Table 6. Model validation summary—1-to-1 matched pairs (n = 23). Where R = Pearson correlation coefficient, P = probability value, std = standard deviation, and MBE = mean bias error.
Table 6. Model validation summary—1-to-1 matched pairs (n = 23). Where R = Pearson correlation coefficient, P = probability value, std = standard deviation, and MBE = mean bias error.
SeasonMetricASHRAE (Mean ± std)Sim (Mean ± std)MBEAssessment
Winter (n = 18)PMV−0.878 ± 0.250−0.400 ± 0.216+0.478Acceptable
TSV direction−0.106 (cool)−0.400 (cool)Agree
Summer (n = 5)PMV−0.778 ± 0.210+0.021 ± 0.085+0.799Indicative (due to the small ASHRAE reference sample (n = 5))
TSV direction+0.140 (warm)+0.021 (neutral)Agree
Overall (n = 23)PMV (R)−0.856 ± 0.241−0.308 ± 0.262+0.548R = 0.720, p < 0.001 (results are valid)
Table 7. Quantitative performance evaluation metrics are used to evaluate the predictive errors of the developed ML models [48].
Table 7. Quantitative performance evaluation metrics are used to evaluate the predictive errors of the developed ML models [48].
MetricFormula
Determination Coefficient R 2 = 1 i = 1 n y i y i ^ 2 i = 1 n y i y ¯ 2 (1)
Root Mean Squared Error R M S E = i = 1 n y i y i ^ 2 n (2)
Mean Absolute Error M A E = i = 1 n y i y i ^ n (3)
Where n is the number of data points; y i and y i ^ represent the actual and predicted values for the ith observation, respectively; and y ¯ represents the mean of the actual value.
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Moeat, M.E.-S.; Megahed, N.A.; Abdel-Kader, R.F.; Noaman, D.S. Skipping Energy Simulation with S-TCML: A Surrogate Machine Learning Sustainable Framework for Real-Time Thermal Comfort Evaluation in Office Buildings. Sustainability 2026, 18, 3381. https://doi.org/10.3390/su18073381

AMA Style

Moeat ME-S, Megahed NA, Abdel-Kader RF, Noaman DS. Skipping Energy Simulation with S-TCML: A Surrogate Machine Learning Sustainable Framework for Real-Time Thermal Comfort Evaluation in Office Buildings. Sustainability. 2026; 18(7):3381. https://doi.org/10.3390/su18073381

Chicago/Turabian Style

Moeat, Mayar El-Sayed, Naglaa Ali Megahed, Rehab F. Abdel-Kader, and Dina Samy Noaman. 2026. "Skipping Energy Simulation with S-TCML: A Surrogate Machine Learning Sustainable Framework for Real-Time Thermal Comfort Evaluation in Office Buildings" Sustainability 18, no. 7: 3381. https://doi.org/10.3390/su18073381

APA Style

Moeat, M. E.-S., Megahed, N. A., Abdel-Kader, R. F., & Noaman, D. S. (2026). Skipping Energy Simulation with S-TCML: A Surrogate Machine Learning Sustainable Framework for Real-Time Thermal Comfort Evaluation in Office Buildings. Sustainability, 18(7), 3381. https://doi.org/10.3390/su18073381

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