How Does Artificial Intelligence Policy Boost Green Innovation in Manufacturing?—A Quasi-Natural Experiment Based on the AI Pilot Zones Policy

Against the backdrop of carbon peaking, carbon neutrality, and digital economy development, exploring the pathways through which artificial intelligence (AI) applications in manufacturing enterprises empower green transformation is of great significance. Using panel data on Chinese A-share listed manufacturing companies from 2005 to 2024 and a difference-in-differences (DID) model, this study examined the impact of the National Artificial Intelligence Innovation and Application Pilot Zones (AI Pilot Zones) policy on corporate green innovation. The results showed that the establishment of AI Pilot Zones significantly promoted green innovation among manufacturing enterprises, and this conclusion remained robust after parallel trend tests, PSM-DID estimation, and alternative variable measurements. Mechanism analysis revealed that financing constraints served as a key mediating channel, and that AI policies promoted green innovation through a serial mediation mechanism involving fintech development and the alleviation of financing constraints. Moderation analysis indicated that both human capital and digital transformation enhanced the policy effect. Heterogeneity analysis suggested that the policy’s impact was more pronounced among non-state-owned enterprises, large enterprises, and firms located in eastern regions. This study provides empirical evidence on the effectiveness of AI Pilot Zones in promoting green innovation among manufacturing firms and clarifies the underlying mechanisms.