Performance Evaluation of Lhasa Winter Tourism Policy Based on Institutional Change Theory

Abstract

Most existing studies on winter tourism focus on destination development and resource evaluation, while systematic exploration of policy performance assessment remains insufficient. From the perspective of new institutional economics, this study innovatively introduces institutional change theory into the field of winter tourism policy evaluation. It deconstructs the three-dimensional evolution of policies—covering “design, implementation, and outcome”—and incorporates satisfaction feedback from four stakeholders: the government, tourism enterprises, local residents, and tourists. This establishes a systematic “three-dimensional, four-stakeholder” evaluation framework. To address the difficulty in obtaining policy performance data and improve the scientific rigor of empirical research, a combined subjective and objective weighting measurement system is adopted, integrating three core research instruments: the Delphi method is used to screen and confirm evaluation indicators and their connotations to ensure the rationality and pertinence of the evaluation system; the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is applied to determine the weight of each evaluation indicator, realizing scientific and quantitative weighting of subjective and objective indicators; and questionnaire surveys are conducted to collect first-hand data on the satisfaction of the four stakeholder groups, providing empirical support for subsequent performance evaluation. This study surveyed 7 government staff, 15 tourism enterprise practitioners, 90 local residents, and 90 tourists, yielding 202 valid samples after screening. The results indicate that Lhasa’s “Winter Tour in Tibet” policy series achieved an overall effectiveness rating of B. Key deficiencies identified include insufficient public participation, low policy awareness, and weak ecological benefits. Consequently, it proposes localized optimization paths, such as “ecological winter tourism” and “targeted publicity”. This study establishes a theoretical framework for winter tourism policy evaluation, improves the methodological system for tourism policy research in special regions, provides a practical reference for the formulation and optimization of winter tourism policies in high-altitude ethnic areas, and expands the geographical coverage and theoretical boundaries of winter tourism policy research.

1. Introduction

The high-quality development of the tourism industry—centered on quality and efficiency—has driven continuous transformation and upgrading. Revitalizing underutilized resources and developing new projects are essential for improving development quality and efficiency. As tourism demand diversifies and personalizes, more tourists pursue self-actualization and authentic experiences. This trend has weakened seasonal constraints and significantly increased winter tourism participation [1]. However, challenges persist, including climatic instability, a narrow customer base, and a short industrial chain.

To address these issues, Finland, the Netherlands, and the European Union have developed distinctive winter tourism products and cross-border cooperation mechanisms. In China, Jilin Province has supported ice–snow scenic spots in developing year-round business formats and promoting integration with culture, sports, and study tourism. Similarly, the Xizang Autonomous Region has launched the eighth round of the “Winter Tour in Xizang” policy package, providing tiered rewards, scenic spot subsidy support, and favorable financial support. It has also advanced the integration of ice–snow tourism with folk culture, research travel, and eco-tourism to create unique regional winter products. Despite these efforts, existing policies suffer from incomplete design and implementation obstacles. Their actual effects lack systematic theoretical examination and empirical evidence [2].

Winter tourism is not only an economic engine but also a key vehicle for ecological protection, cultural inheritance, and balanced regional development—especially in high-altitude, ecologically fragile, and multi-ethnic regions such as Xizang. Effective policy design and implementation directly determine whether winter tourism achieves long-term sustainability. This prevents over-reliance on short-term stimuli and ensures tangible benefits for local communities, enterprises, governments, and visitors. Therefore, rigorous, evidence-based policy performance evaluation is urgently needed. Such evaluation should assess achievements, reveal reasons for policy shortfalls, identify institutional barriers, and guide future improvements. Without systematic evaluation, policymakers cannot pinpoint bottlenecks, leaving the field without a clear theoretical or practical reference for high-altitude winter tourism governance.

Winter tourism research originated from seasonal analysis and has long focused on climate-induced impacts [3]. Existing studies have explored spatial patterns, tourist behaviors, and destination competitiveness using diverse quantitative methods [4,5,6]. The evolutionary logic and market mechanisms of winter tourism have also been examined to reveal seasonal imbalances and supply–demand mismatches [7,8,9]. Nevertheless, research on winter tourism policy evaluation remains limited. Most studies concentrate on climate-related policy instruments in mountain or urban tourism, emphasizing individual policies and short-term outcomes [10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18].

Consequently, the literature relies heavily on qualitative approaches, neglecting stakeholder coordination and long-term sustainability. Quantitative research remains rare in policy performance evaluation, and existing quantitative studies mostly focus on destination suitability rather than policy evolution and implementation processes.

To bridge these gaps, this study introduces institutional change theory into winter tourism policy evaluation, offering two theoretical contributions: (1) Theoretical framework innovation: This study deconstructs policy evolution into a dynamic “design–implementation–outcome” three-dimensional process and integrates satisfaction feedback from four key stakeholders to establish a new “three-dimensional, four-stakeholder” integrated evaluation framework, enriching the theoretical paradigm of tourism policy research. (2) Theoretical boundary expansion: This study extends winter tourism policy research to high-altitude, multi-ethnic, ecologically fragile regions represented by Lhasa, enhancing context-specific explanations of institutional change in special regional tourism governance and expanding the geographic and theoretical boundaries of winter tourism policy studies.

Using a combined subjective–objective weighting method, this study evaluates the performance of the “Winter Tour in Xizang” policy series in Lhasa. It quantitatively identifies key challenges, including insufficient public participation, low policy awareness, and weak ecological benefits, and proposes localized optimization paths such as ecological winter tourism and targeted promotion. This study provides a practical reference for winter tourism policy formulation in similar high-altitude ethnic regions. These findings provide practical references for policymakers, researchers, and managers committed to sustainable winter tourism development globally.

2. Theoretical Framework: Building a Framework for Winter Policy Performance Assessment from the Perspective of Institutional Change

2.1. Definition of the Concept of System and Policy

Institutional economics provides a fundamental theoretical basis for understanding behavioral logic and structural dynamics in social systems. Van Buren, the founder of the old institutional economics, believes that “institutions are the general habits of thought of individuals or societies about certain relationships or certain roles”. In contrast, the new institutional economist North defines institutions as the “rules of the game” in society, and believes that institutions can not only constrain human behavior but also play an incentive role. Human behavior can also play a role in motivation, and the system is divided into formal and informal systems [19,20]. Thus, institutions comprise a set of rules and norms regulating human behavior and determining social interest relationships, encompassing both formal and informal systems. From the perspectives of subject and goal, policy in terms of subject represents the interests of the governing body. It is a code of action prescribed by the governing body to solve a specific social problem, while policy in terms of goal is a standard of action proposed to solve a public social problem. Policies usually refer to a series of action guidelines or principles formulated by the government or relevant units to achieve specific goals, which can be adjusted quickly in response to specific social problems or development needs, and are flexible and targeted. Institutions and policies are both important means of regulating human society and human behavior. They overlap in content; for example, constitutions, laws, and regulations belong to both institutions and policies. However, there is a difference between the two: systems are stable and can be generated either intrinsically or by human design, while policies are phased and can only be designed by a subject with political authority. This distinction establishes a theoretical foundation for analyzing policy evolution. It can be seen that institutions are theoretical mechanisms that can explain human autonomy in society, and can explain how to both constrain and promote human behavioral choices, to better study the role of the relationship between the actors, and to provide pertinent theoretical guidance for the overall analysis of policy goals and outcomes [20].

In summary, evaluating the performance of winter tourism policies from the perspective of institutional change requires a comprehensive examination of the full process of policy evolution, as well as an analysis of stakeholders’ satisfaction with policy outcomes at different stages. This not only highlights the value of the policy itself but also provides a scientific basis for improving and optimizing it. This study abandons the traditional evaluation approach based solely on economic dimensions. Considering the unique development context of Xizang, it employs a mixed-methods approach combining qualitative and quantitative analysis to systematically assess the performance of Lhasa’s winter tourism policies from the perspectives of public value and stakeholder satisfaction, thereby fully reflecting the dynamic nature of policy evolution. A tourism institution is defined as a system of rules and norms formed by tourism development actors through interest-based gaming, which can promote the development of the tourism industry. Winter tourism policy refers to the totality of laws, regulations, rules, and development strategies formulated by government authorities in a specific institutional environment to break seasonal constraints, coordinate multi-stakeholder interests, and advance winter tourism. Its rationality and effectiveness inherently contain the logic of performance evaluation, which is essentially reflected in the comprehensive effectiveness and efficiency of the policy in satisfying diverse interests, solving practical problems, and achieving preset goals after implementation.

2.2. A “Three-Dimensional, Four-Subjects” Winter Tourism Policy Performance Assessment Framework

North’s model is the most representative institutional change model in new institutional economics. He posits that institutional change originates from the pursuit of potential profits. Since these profits are often external and unobtainable under existing arrangements, subjects must rearrange institutions to internalize them. This internalization process involves institutional change and innovation. North interprets institutions as dynamic, suggesting that both institutional change and technological progress serve as means for actors to maximize profits [21].

In tourism, numerous studies validate institutional change theory’s applicability. Scholars have analyzed subjects, processes, and results of institutional change, confirming the theory’s utility in policy research [22,23,24]. Therefore, institutional change theory is a vital tool for interpreting the dynamic interaction between stakeholders and policy evolution, as well as institutional mechanisms underlying implementation issues.

2.2.1. Process Deconstruction of “Three-Dimensional” Policy Evolution

North argues that institutions are not static but undergo dynamic emergence, development, and change. Driven by stakeholders’ pursuit of potential profits and interest maximization, institutions constantly adjust and evolve, producing diverse outcomes. This dynamic logic aligns with the inherent law of policy operation, naturally comprising three core links: policy design, policy implementation, and policy outcome formation. This study deconstructs winter tourism policy evolution into three interrelated dimensions, constituting the “three-dimensional” analytical framework for performance evaluation (Figure 1) [25].

This framework is rooted in the equilibrium–disequilibrium–re-equilibrium cycle central to institutional change theory. This cycle drives policy evolution and institutional adjustment. It intertwines with two key mechanisms: path dependence and lock-in effects. These are crucial for interpreting low public participation and policy implementation inertia, elaborated below.

The first dimension: policy design.

When stakeholders, including the government, enterprises, and residents, recognize that the existing institutional arrangements cannot meet their interests or realize their development potential, they will take the initiative to promote institutional innovation and adjustment. Accordingly, the government, as the core policy-maker and interest coordinator, designs targeted winter tourism policies by comprehensively balancing the diverse demands of stakeholders, reconciling conflicting interests, and integrating development goals. However, the policy design process is often constrained by path dependence—a key concept in institutional change theory that refers to the tendency of institutional development to be limited by historical choices and to maintain the existing path once formed. In the long-term governance of high-altitude ethnic regions such as Lhasa, the top–down policy-making model has become a stable institutional path, in which the government dominates policy design. At the same time, other stakeholders (especially local residents and tourists) lack sufficient channels to participate in the design process. This path dependence leads to insufficient public participation in policy design, making it difficult to fully integrate the diverse demands of multiple subjects into policy arrangements, thereby posing a hidden danger of subsequent policy implementation inertia and demand mismatches. Therefore, policy design not only reflects the initial institutional arrangements for winter tourism development but also serves as the logical starting point for the entire policy evolution process, laying the foundation for subsequent policy implementation and effect formation.

The second dimension: policy implementation.

In line with the core tenet of institutional change theory, stakeholders engage in continuous, repeated interest games during policy implementation. When the distribution of interests among all parties and the structure of power reach a relatively stable and balanced state, the policy system achieves institutional equilibrium. However, as external conditions (such as the economic environment, market demand, and ecological constraints) and stakeholders’ subjective expectations change, new interest conflicts and demand mismatches will gradually emerge, breaking the original equilibrium and pushing the policy system into disequilibrium. The repeated cycle of equilibrium–disequilibrium–re-equilibrium drives the dynamic advancement of policy implementation and promotes the continuous optimization of policy content. However, in practice, this cycle is often hindered by two interrelated problems: low public participation and policy implementation inertia, whose deep-seated causes stem from path dependence and lock-in effects associated with top–down governance structures.

Low participation is driven by path dependence in Lhasa’s top–down governance. Local residents and tourists are positioned as passive recipients, lacking awareness and channels for supervision and feedback. The government, accustomed to traditional models, has not established robust participation mechanisms. Implementation inertia arises from lock-in effects within the top–down structure. Lock-in occurs when an institutional system becomes inefficient due to solidified interests and arrangements, resisting adjustment [26]. The government dominates resource allocation and rules, marginalizing stakeholder demands. This leads to administrative inertia, preventing flexible adaptation to actual needs. Evaluating implementation effectiveness requires assessing enforcement intensity, stakeholder participation, satisfaction, and the underlying institutional mechanisms.

The third dimension: policy outcome.

Policy outcomes are the concentrated reflection of the comprehensive effects of institutional operation after the implementation of winter tourism policies, covering economic benefits (such as tourist volume and tourism revenue growth), social benefits (such as employment promotion and cultural inheritance), and ecological benefits (such as ecological protection and sustainable development). Once a policy enters a stable operation path, it may form path dependence and implementation inertia—two key institutional mechanisms that directly affect the sustainability of policy outcomes. If the policy can continuously generate incremental benefits and meet the interest demands of all stakeholders, it will maintain a virtuous cycle of development and avoid falling into inefficient lock-in; otherwise, the path dependence of the existing policy model and the lock-in effect of the top–down governance structure will further aggravate the problems of low public participation and implementation inertia, making the policy fall into an inefficient “lock-in” state, which is not conducive to the long-term development of winter tourism. For example, if the policy fails to effectively respond to the ecological demands of local residents and the experience demands of tourists due to implementation inertia, it will lead to low satisfaction among these stakeholders, further reducing their willingness to participate in policy supervision and feedback, and forming a vicious cycle of “low participation → inertia → poor outcomes → lower participation”.

In practice, despite the significant growth in tourist numbers and tourism revenue brought about by the implementation of winter tourism policies in many regions, there remain significant problems, including insufficient market vitality, inadequate policy design, and uneven benefit distribution. These problems reflect uncoordinated stakeholder interests and insufficient satisfaction with policy implementation outcomes, driven by path dependence and lock-in. These problems will further trigger the next round of institutional adjustment and policy iteration, highlighting the importance of exploring these institutional mechanisms in depth. Therefore, timely and scientific policy performance evaluation is essential to avoid inefficient lock-in, correct policy deviations, and maximize the development dividends brought by winter tourism policies.

The three dimensions are interrelated, forming a closed-loop policy evolution process. Driven by stakeholder demands and constrained by path dependence and lock-in effects, policy performance evaluation must analyze subjective perceptions and institutional mechanisms. This lays the foundation for the subsequent “four-stakeholder” satisfaction evaluation.

2.2.2. Evaluation and Analysis of the Satisfaction of the “Four Subjects”

Satisfaction, as a key quantitative indicator reflecting the gap between individual subjective expectations and objective practical experiences, can effectively measure the public’s perceptions, attitudes, and recognition toward public policies, serving as a direct and reliable reference for evaluating policy effectiveness [27]. As a typical public policy aimed at promoting the high-quality development of winter tourism and safeguarding the interests of multiple groups, winter tourism policy cannot be separated from public and stakeholder feedback and oversight. In the context of institutional change theory, satisfaction is closely linked to the dynamic cycle of “equilibrium–disequilibrium–re-equilibrium”: High satisfaction among stakeholders means that the current policy arrangement is consistent with their interest demands,; so, they lack the intrinsic motivation to promote institutional change, indicating that the policy system is in a state of institutional equilibrium. By contrast, low satisfaction fully reveals the mismatches between policy supply and stakeholder demand, as well as the imbalance of interest distribution, which will further stimulate stakeholders to put forward demands for institutional adjustment and policy revision, pushing the policy system into a state of “disequilibrium”. Therefore, stakeholder satisfaction not only serves as an important criterion for measuring policy performance but also acts as a crucial signal and core driving force that triggers institutional adjustment and promotes policy iteration.

Notably, stakeholder satisfaction is also an important window to reflect path dependence and lock-in effects in policy evolution. Low satisfaction with policy participation channels reflects the path dependence of the top–down policy model; low satisfaction with policy implementation flexibility reveals the lock-in effect of the rigid governance structure. Exploring the relationship between the four subjects’ satisfaction and these two institutional mechanisms can further deepen the understanding of stakeholder dynamics and provide a theoretical basis for solving the problems of low public participation and implementation inertia.

This study identifies four core stakeholders: the government, tourism enterprises, local residents, and tourists. Their distinct roles and demands exert varied impacts on institutional change, path dependence, and lock-in effects:

(A) Government and Regulatory Agencies: As policymakers and managers, they formulate frameworks, supervise implementation, and coordinate interests. Their satisfaction affects policy sustainability, enforcement intensity, and optimization willingness [28]. High satisfaction reinforces commitment to existing policies, potentially entrenching path dependence. Conversely, low satisfaction prompts policy tool adjustments, breaking rigid governance lock-in. For example, recognizing resident dissatisfaction with participation channels may lead to establishing public participation mechanisms, countering path dependence.

(B) Tourism Enterprises: Including scenic spots, hotels, travel agencies, and other related market entities, are important carriers of policy implementation and the direct practitioners of winter tourism development. They are highly sensitive to policy dividends and operational costs: their dissatisfaction with policy support intensity, market guidance, and profit space may induce them to put forward suggestions for institutional innovation, promote the government to revise policies to adapt to market changes, and even become key subjects driving induced institutional change—helping to break the lock-in effect of inefficient policy arrangements. For example, the Tourism Development Committee of the Tibet Autonomous Region has formed a promotion alliance with many tourism enterprises, which is essentially a result of enterprises’ demand for policy optimization and institutional innovation driven by satisfaction feedback, and a concrete practice to break the lock-in effect of single government-led governance.

(C) Local Residents and Tourists: While often passive recipients, their satisfaction directly reflects policy performance and is key to breaking path dependence. Residents’ satisfaction relates to living environments, employment, and cultural protection; tourists’ satisfaction hinges on service quality, experience, and policy accessibility. Negative feedback exposes defects from path dependence and lock-in; positive recognition supports policy continuity. Cumulative dissatisfaction forces policy adjustments, disrupting inefficient lock-in and coordinating institutional change.

The satisfaction of these four stakeholders is not isolated; it interacts with and influences each other throughout the entire process of policy evolution, and together they affect the formation and evolution of path dependence and lock-in effects. Specifically, in the policy design stage, if the government fully listens to the demands of tourism enterprises, local residents, and tourists, and formulates policies that meet the interests of multiple subjects, higher satisfaction will be obtained, which can effectively reduce the resistance in the policy implementation process and avoid the formation of path dependence; in the policy implementation stage, effective coordination of the interests of the four subjects and improvement in their satisfaction with the coordination effect will help smooth the policy implementation process, reduce implementation inertia, and prevent the emergence of lock-in effects; in the policy outcome stage, positive satisfaction feedback from the four subjects will provide a solid practical basis for the formulation of the next round of policies, helping to develop more scientific, inclusive, and targeted winter tourism policies, and further breaking the existing path dependence and inefficient lock-in.

In summary, stakeholder satisfaction spans all policy evolution dimensions. Winter tourism policy implementation is a dynamic institutional change process where the three-dimensional evolution, four-subject feedback, and two institutional mechanisms are mutually embedded. Integrating these, this study establishes a comprehensive “three-dimensional, four-subjects” evaluation framework.

2.2.3. Constructing the Indicator System

Based on the above winter tourism policy performance assessment framework, the assessment should be comprehensive, covering the policy’s design, implementation, and results, and involving the four stakeholder groups involved in the policy. Therefore, by drawing on the mature performance indicators of the tourism industry and by interpreting and organizing the policies on the tourism government websites of many places, the relevant word frequencies recurring therein regarding winter tourism were extracted and categorized. After further modification, the sensitive indicators were initially formed and made as reasonable and comprehensive as possible. Based on the preliminary selection of sensitive indicators, we designed a questionnaire to solicit opinions on the indicator system and issued it to 35 experts to assess the indicators’ importance. After two rounds of consultation and revision, we eliminated indicators with low operability, such as the effect of poverty alleviation on winter tourism at the social level, the profitability of tourism enterprises at the economic level, and the popularization rate of tourism toilets at the ecological level, which are difficult to measure.

Based on this, this paper finally selects the first two-level project layers of policy construction and policy results, six second-level project layers of design, implementation, social benefits, economic benefits, ecological benefits, and cultural benefits, and 23 specific indicators that cover the entire process of policy evolution. It constructs a comprehensive assessment index system of winter tourism policy performance under the perspective of institutional change, synthesizes the opinions of experts, and constructs the corresponding judgment matrices through the yaahp7.5 software processing and consistency test to establish the weights of each indicator (

Table 1. Comprehensive assessment index system of winter tourism policy performance in “three-dimensional and four-subjects”.

Objective Level	Project Level	Sub-Project Level	Indicator Element Level	Weight
Performance evaluation of Lhasa winter tourism policy based on institutional change theory A	Dimensions of policy constructs B1	Policy design C1	Rationality of policy content D1	0.3694
			Participation in policy-designing D2	0.1569
			Intensity of policy-designing D3	0.1325
			Breadth of policy-designing D4	0.0870
			Satisfaction with product design D5	0.2542
		Policy implementation C2	Degree of implementation of policies D6	0.3894
			Enthusiasm for policy participation D7	0.1948
			Level of understanding of policy D8	0.1553
			Satisfaction with policy services D9	0.2605
	Dimensions of policy outcomes B2	Social benefits C3	Enhance regional visibility D10	0.3957
			Improving basic service infrastructure D11	0.2977
			Degree of driving tourism employment D12	0.1887
			Fairness of policy income distribution D13	0.1179
		Economic benefits C4	Tourist Income D14	0.3368
			Number of tourists D15	0.1997
			Satisfaction with revenue growth D16	0.355
			Construction of key winter tourist attractions D17	0.1085
		Ecological benefits C5	Satisfaction with the ecological environment D18	0.4804
			Enhancing awareness of ecological protection D19	0.2166
			Impact on environmental improvement D20	0.3030
		Cultural benefits C6	Enriching cultural activities D21	0.2548
			Attitude towards foreign cultures D22	0.2727
			impact on cultural dissemination power D23	0.4725

). The weights of the indicators were established by processing and consistency test of yaahp7.5 software (Table 1).

After determining the indicators’ weights, to make the results of the indicator assessment more intuitive and accurate, a Likert scale was chosen to measure the subjective indicators. Five responses were set under each indicator: “very satisfied”, “more satisfied”, “general”, “more dissatisfied”, and “very dissatisfied”, and values were assigned from 5 to 1 to reflect the performance level of each subjective indicator. For subjective indicators, Likert scales are chosen to measure them, and “very satisfied”, “more satisfied”, “average”, “relatively dissatisfied”, and “very dissatisfied” are set under each indicator, and the values are assigned from 5 to 1 in order to reflect the performance level of each subjective indicator. For the objective indicators, this paper analyzes the actual development level of each indicator relative to the overall level using data reviews and field research results, and assigns an integer value between 5 and 1 based on this analysis. On this basis, the mean value of each third-level indicator was calculated, and the value of each second-level indicator was calculated by combining the weights in Table 1 and applying the same method to calculate the final score, i.e., the overall performance of the winter tourism policy. Finally, the Likert scale from 1 to 5, corresponding to the “very poor, poor, general, good, very good” five-level standard for the implementation of the policy to assess the effectiveness of the policy, combined with the expert opinion of the standard to study and analyze the standard, set the rating standards [29,30] (

Table 2. Policy performance evaluation criteria.

Level	Level Standard	Implication
A	4.2 ≤ score	The policy results exceeded expectations; the policy formulation was scientific and reasonable; the policy implementation was efficient; the policy results did not have negative impacts; and all stakeholders were very satisfied. Policies have high sustainability.
B	3.4 ≤ score < 4.2	The policy has achieved good results, with no major flaws in its formulation and implementation. The policy’s benefits have not been fully highlighted, and the negative impact is relatively small. The policy benefits align with the overall interests of all stakeholders, and they are satisfied with its implementation and tend to maintain the status quo.
C	2.6 ≤ score < 3.4	The policy results are average, meeting the target requirements only in a basic sense. There are some shortcomings in the policy’s implementation, such as low efficiency, but they do not affect its implementation. The policy results have had some negative impacts, and various policy stakeholders are not very satisfied, leading to the idea of changing policies.
D	1.8 ≤ score < 2.6	Poor policy outcomes, unreasonable policy formulation, and low policy implementation efficiency. There are still some policies with high benefits, but their actual negative impact is relatively serious. Policy stakeholders are dissatisfied and seek potential opportunities to change the policies.
E	score < 1.8	The policy results are poor, and the formulation and implementation of policies are not supported, making it difficult to carry out. The policy’s negative impact is very serious, and all parties involved are very dissatisfied. The policy is almost unsustainable, and there is a strong demand for policy changes.

), the final assessment of the level of satisfaction relative to the classification, and the following division: A—very satisfied; B—more satisfied; C—average; D—more dissatisfied; E—very dissatisfied.

3. Empirical Test: Performance Evaluation of Winter Tourism Policies in Lhasa

Lhasa’s winter tourism has entered a “steady start, high progress and continuous warming” trend, and the implementation of the policy has significantly boosted the development of winter tourism (Figure 2). Therefore, this paper selects the typical and representative city of Lhasa as the research object, assesses and analyzes the performance of Lhasa’s winter tourism policy, and studies the practice of China’s winter tourism destination policy and the optimization path.

3.1. Assessment Methods and Data Sources

3.1.1. Assessment Methods

Hierarchical analysis is a combination of qualitative and quantitative assessment, making it a multi-objective decision-making research method that, through the complexity of the problem, is decomposed into a number of levels or factors, with two or more indicators for the degree of importance in comparative judgment after the establishment of a judgment matrix. The weights of different indicators can be derived through arithmetic operations, which provides the basis for the final optimal decision-making [31]. This method is suitable for some problems regarding difficulty in quantitatively describing the policy performance assessment and has been widely used in many decision-making areas; winter tourism policy performance assessment involves a large number of variables and subjects and the structure of the complex framework; so, this paper uses the hierarchical analysis method on the basis of the acquisition of field research data to use the subjective and objective empowerment method for analysis. In addition, to screen sensitive indicators for the performance evaluation of Lhasa’s winter tourism policy, five experts in Tibet tourism research were consulted via the Delphi method, and the indicator weights at each level were finally determined.

3.1.2. Data Sources

Indicators are objective and subjective. Due to difficulties accessing Tibet tourism data, objective indicators were obtained via information access, staff interviews, and expert projections to ensure accuracy and unify data caliber. Subjective indicators were gathered via interviews and questionnaires. Four tailored questionnaires were designed for each stakeholder group, sharing core content but varying in focus and phrasing. This ensured corroboration and supplementation across subjects, guaranteeing reasonable, valid data per indicator.

3.2. Analysis of Results

3.2.1. Sample Characterization and Questionnaire Validity Testing

Data were collected via questionnaires and in-depth interviews. After screening, 202 valid samples remained: 7 government staff, 15 tourism enterprise practitioners, 90 local residents, and 90 tourists (

Table 3. Demographic characteristics of the sample.

Government Staff				Tourism Enterprises
		Frequency	Percentage/%			Frequency	Percentage/%
Gender	Male	5	71.4	Nature of enterprise	Private	13	86.7
	Female	2	28.6		Government-owned	2	13.3
Age	[20, 30]	2	28.5	Size of the enterprise	≤100	9	60.0
	(30, 40]	3	42.9		(100, 199]	6	40.0
	(40, 50]	1	14.3	Positions	Staff	12	80.0
	>50	1	14.3		Manager	3	20.0
Degree of education	Undergraduate/Vocational education	5	71.4	Education level	Junior high school	8	53.3
	Postgraduate or above	2	28.6		High school	3	20.0
Income	[2000, 4000]	5	71.4		Undergraduate/Vocational education	4	26.7
	(4000, 6000]	2	28.6	Income	[2000, 4000]	3	20.0
Rank	Section member	5	71.4		(4000, 6000]	9	60.0
	Deputy sector chief	1	14.3		(6000, 8000]	3	20.0
	Sector chief	1	14.3
Residents				Tourists
		Frequency	Percentage/%			Frequency	Percentage/%
Gender	Male	42	46.67	Gender	Male	46	51.11
	Female	48	53.33		Female	44	48.89
Age	(19, 30]	19	21.11	Age	(19, 30]	25	27.78
	(30, 45]	40	44.44		(30, 45]	40	44.44
	(45, 55]	28	31.11		(45, 55]	16	17.78
	>55	3	3.33		>55	9	10.00
Education level	Primary and below	24	26.67	Education level	Primary and below	1	3.33
	Junior high school	44	49.89		Junior high school	19	21.11
	High school	13	14.44		High school	27	30.00
	Undergraduate/Vocational education	7	7.78		Undergraduate/Vocational education	34	30.78
	Postgraduate or above	2	2.22		Postgraduate or above	7	7.78
Monthly income	≤2000	2	2.22	Monthly income	≤2000	6	6.67
	(2000, 4000]	34	37.78		(2000, 4000]	14	15.56
	(4000, 6000]	39	43.33		(4000, 6000]	35	38.89
	(6000, 8000]	15	16.67		(6000, 8000]	31	34.44
	>8000	0	0		>8000	4	4.44
Careers	Commercial	37	41.11	Careers	Staff	51	56.67
	Farm	24	26.67		Freelance	17	18.89
	Staff	15	16.67		Other	11	12.22
	Officer	5	5.56
	Other	9	10.00

). Demographics align with actual conditions, ensuring balanced sample proportions.

The reliability analysis of the questionnaire responses for 18 subjective indicators was conducted using SPSS_29.0.2.0. The minimum value of Cronbach’s coefficient (α) was 0.942, which was greater than 0.700, and the questionnaire had good consistency. The KMO value of the questionnaire is 0.936, which is greater than 0.700 and suitable for factor analysis. Analyzing the rotated component matrix, two common factors with eigenroots greater than 1 were extracted, which cumulatively explained 62.88% of the total variance, and the analysis results were consistent with the structure of the questionnaire design, which indicated that the questionnaire had a certain degree of structural validity at the level of the first-level indexes, and the questionnaire design was reasonable.

3.2.2. Analysis of the Results of the Evaluation Level Measurement of Lhasa’s Winter Tourism Policy Performance

Based on the “three-dimensional, four-subjects” index system and criteria, Lhasa’s winter tourism policy performance was measured across policy constructs and outcomes.

(1)

Dimensions of policy constructs

Policy construction constitutes the foundation of policy evolution, including two secondary indicators: policy design and policy implementation. The satisfaction levels of the “four subjects” reflect their respective expectations regarding the planning and design of winter tourism policies, the intensity of implementation, and the coordination effects during implementation. The questionnaire responses from the four stakeholder groups were weighted to calculate the overall score for the policy construction dimension (Figure 3). The results indicate that the overall evaluation of the policy construction dimension is relatively positive. The indicator “strength of policy formulation” in the design dimension receives the highest score, reflecting the remarkable investment and attention that Lhasa and Xizang have devoted to winter tourism development. Similarly, the reasonability of policy content is well recognized, indicating that the measures for winter tourism development in Lhasa are widely accepted by stakeholders.

In contrast, the indicator “public participation in policy development” is rated Grade C (general), revealing insufficient public engagement in the policy-making process. Although the breadth of policy coverage is acceptable, its score is only 3.58, suggesting that its coverage and implementation still need improvement. At the implementation level, the performance score of policy implementation is slightly higher than that of policy design, indicating that Lhasa’s winter tourism policies have been effectively implemented. Among implementation indicators, “enthusiasm for policy participation” scores the highest at 4.98, demonstrating strong stakeholder willingness to participate in winter tourism activities, which partly explains the recent revitalization and momentum of Lhasa’s winter tourism. However, the “degree of policy awareness” score is lowest, indicating that stakeholders lack sufficient knowledge and understanding of relevant policies. This low policy awareness directly weakens the effectiveness of policy transmission, reduces public participation, and may lead to misalignment between policy supply and actual behavioral responses, thereby limiting the full realization of policy objectives.

(2)

Dimensions of policy outcomes

Policy outcomes most directly reflect stakeholders’ overall evaluation of policy effects. The “four subjects” assessed the extent to which winter tourism policy implementation meets their expectations across social impacts, economic development, ecological environment, cultural activities, attitudes toward foreign cultures, and cultural dissemination. After weighing the evaluation scores for each group, the results are presented in Figure 4. The policy’s overall performance is relatively favorable, indicating that Lhasa’s winter tourism policy has largely achieved its intended social, economic, ecological, and cultural goals and has generated comprehensive benefits. The four secondary dimensions all receive satisfactory evaluations, suggesting that Lhasa’s winter tourism has attained relatively sound outcomes across these fields.

Regarding social benefits, “improvement in regional visibility” scores highest, whereas “fairness of income distribution” scores lowest, suggesting that winter tourism policies should prioritize balanced redistribution of tourism benefits while pursuing economic growth. In terms of economic benefits, “construction of key winter tourism scenic spots” scores highest, reflecting effective investment in winter tourism destinations and positive stakeholder perceptions of revenue growth. By contrast, “tourist arrival volume” scores the lowest, consistent with the reality of high per capita tourism consumption in Xizang.

Ecologically, this dimension receives the lowest overall score among the three dimensions, indicating that ecological protection still needs to be strengthened in winter tourism policy design and implementation. However, “satisfaction with the ecological environment” is relatively high, which reflects that the development of winter tourism benefits from Lhasa’s high-quality natural resources and climatic conditions. Culturally, the cultural benefit dimension scores the highest at 4.15, demonstrating that winter tourism policies have strongly promoted local cultural development in Lhasa. The indicator “attitude toward foreign cultures” achieves the highest score, reflecting the high tolerance of local residents toward external cultures, supported by the distinctiveness of Xizang culture and the wide dissemination via new media.

(3)

Results of the performance evaluation

Based on indicator weights, Lhasa’s winter tourism policy achieved an overall performance score of 4.01, corresponding to Grade B. Practically, this signifies good overall performance, matching the current stage of regional tourism development. The policy successfully revitalized off-season tourism, stimulated market vitality, and promoted coordinated, year-round, region-wide development. Nevertheless, the Grade B evaluation reveals limitations: the policy system is not yet fully mature. Bottlenecks persist, including low public participation, insufficient policy awareness, uneven benefit distribution, and inadequate ecological governance. These shortcomings constrain further effectiveness improvements, leaving potential for optimizing design, enhancing implementation efficiency, and strengthening multi-stakeholder engagement to achieve higher-level institutional equilibrium and sustainable development.

4. Countermeasures for the Development of Winter Tourism

4.1. Cluster Stakeholder Needs and Optimize Policy Design Based on Empirical Findings

The empirical results of this study confirm that mismatches between policy supply and stakeholder demands have led to insufficient public participation and weak policy identification, which, in turn, have further triggered institutional disequilibrium in the policy implementation process. To address these issues, the government should fully exert its institutional advantages and shift from top–down policy design to demand-oriented policy formulation that reflects the real needs of the four stakeholders. Based on on-the-spot investigations and standardized consultation mechanisms, policy arrangements should be tailored to Lhasa’s high-altitude, ecologically fragile, and multi-ethnic context, to coordinate the distribution of interests among the government, tourism enterprises, local residents, and tourists. Policy design teams should be supported by professionals and experienced scholars in winter tourism and plateau governance to enhance professionalism and operability. Meanwhile, clear phased goals and measurable indicators should be established to facilitate dynamic performance evaluation and institutional adjustment. During implementation, strengthened supervision and regular policy interpretation can reduce implementation resistance and avoid ineffective enforcement. By continuously absorbing feedback from stakeholders, the policy system can gradually form positive institutional inertia and promote a steady cycle of “equilibrium–disequilibrium–re-equilibrium” during institutional change.

4.2. Strengthen Data-Driven Publicity and Targeted Communication to Correct Cognitive Biases

The empirical results show that policy awareness and public recognition remain low, and many tourists hold clear misperceptions about Lhasha’s winter climate, oxygen content, and comfort level, which directly limit the effectiveness of the “Winter Tour in Tibet” campaign. To improve low-scoring indicators related to publicity and cognition, data-driven tools should be used to track tourist sources, preference structures, and information-acquisition channels. Official new media platforms and high-influence collaborative accounts can release visualized, real-time information on winter temperatures, sunshine hours, air quality, and oxygen conditions, thereby systematically eliminating stereotypes about harsh winter conditions in high-altitude areas. Offline promotional conferences in major tourist markets should be combined with targeted online marketing to improve penetration in key source markets. Furthermore, publicity should be extended to tourism enterprises and community residents to increase their familiarity with the policy content and encourage their active participation. In this way, policy communication can be more closely linked with stakeholder behavior, improve actual policy acceptance, and support the realization of the public value of “benefiting local people and boosting regional development”.

4.3. Highlight Ecological Vulnerability and Build Plateau-Specific Ecological Winter Tourism

Given Lhasa’s fragile ecological environment, the empirical finding of relatively weak ecological benefits reveals potential risks of path dependence and unsustainable development. Therefore, ecological protection should be prioritized as a core institutional constraint in winter tourism development. The government should implement strict planning control through legal, economic, and administrative instruments, and establish a targeted ecological compensation mechanism suitable for high-altitude regions to clarify the ecological responsibilities of enterprises, tourists, and communities. Development activities should be strictly restricted to non-ecological core zones, and construction of winter tourism attractions and supporting facilities should be carried out moderately to increase the high-quality supply. By integrating ecological protection into the entire policy chain, this study shows that ecological performance can be significantly improved while maintaining economic and social benefits, thereby breaking the inefficient lock-in effect of extensive development. This will promote the coordinated evolution of winter tourism and ecological protection, and form a sustainable ecological winter tourism model with distinct plateau characteristics.

5. Conclusions

From an institutional change perspective, this paper deconstructs the evolutionary process of winter tourism policies across the three dimensions of design, implementation, and outcome. Drawing on satisfaction feedback from four stakeholders—government, enterprises, residents, and tourists—we construct a systematic theoretical framework for policy evaluation. A comprehensive index system integrating subjective satisfaction and objective metrics is established. Taking Lhasa as a case study, we quantitatively evaluated the performance of the “Winter Tour in Tibet” policy series. Empirical results show overall positive effects (Grade B) while identifying core deficiencies: insufficient public participation, low policy popularity, and inadequate ecological benefits. Localized optimization paths, including “ecological winter tourism” and “targeted publicity,” are proposed accordingly. This study confirms that institutional change is an important and feasible perspective for evaluating winter tourism policy performance, and the empirical findings not only verify the effectiveness of Lhasa’s winter tourism policies but also highlight the room for improvement, providing theoretical support and practical reference for the formulation and optimization of winter tourism policies in similar high-altitude ethnic regions.

6. Limitations and Future Research Directions

6.1. Limitations

Despite the systematic analysis of the performance of winter tourism policies in Lhasa based on institutional change theory and the “three-dimensional, four-stakeholder” framework, this study still has several limitations that need to be clarified, which may affect the generalizability and depth of the research findings.

First, this study employs a cross-sectional design to examine the current performance of winter tourism policies in Lhasa. This cross-sectional design makes it difficult to capture the long-term dynamic evolution of policy performance and the cumulative effects of institutional change. The “equilibrium–disequilibrium–re-equilibrium” cycle of institutional change is a long-term process, and the short-term data collected in this study cannot fully reflect the dynamic adaptation and adjustment of policies over time, nor can it effectively track the long-term impact of policy adjustments on stakeholder satisfaction and institutional evolution.

Second, although the selection of research methods is methodologically rigorous, it still has certain limitations. This study adopts a mixed-methods approach combining the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), the Delphi method, and questionnaire surveys, thereby effectively ensuring the scientificity of this research. However, the questionnaire data primarily rely on stakeholders’ subjective perceptions and may be affected by response biases (e.g., social desirability bias). In addition, this study focuses on the four core stakeholders. It does not fully include other potential stakeholders that may impact the implementation of winter tourism policies (such as tourism industry associations and environmental protection organizations), leading to an incomplete understanding of the stakeholder interaction mechanism.

6.2. Future Research Directions

Given the limitations of this study and the research gaps in winter tourism policy evaluation and sustainable tourism governance, the following future research directions are proposed to further expand and deepen this study.

First, the research scope should be expanded and cross-regional comparative studies should be conducted. Future research can select other high-altitude, ecologically fragile regions (such as Qinghai and Gansu in China, or regions in the Andes Mountains and the Himalayas) for comparative analysis. By comparing differences in winter tourism policy performance, institutional change mechanisms, and stakeholder interaction models across regions, the generalizability of the “three-dimensional, four-stakeholder” framework can be verified and refined, and region-specific policy optimization paths can be explored.

Second, a longitudinal research design to track the long-term evolution of policy performance should be adopted. Future research can collect panel data over a longer period (e.g., 5–10 years) to capture the dynamic changes in winter tourism policies in Lhasa, including the policy adjustment process, the evolution of stakeholder satisfaction, and the long-term impact of institutional change. This will help deepen exploration of the long-term cycle of “equilibrium–disequilibrium–re-equilibrium” in policy evolution and provide more accurate empirical support for policy optimization.

Third, research methods should be enriched and the scope of stakeholder research should be expanded. On the one hand, future research can introduce objective data (such as tourism economic data and ecological environment monitoring data) to supplement subjective questionnaire data, reduce the impact of response biases, and improve the objectivity of research findings. On the other hand, the scope of stakeholders can be expanded to include relevant actors, such as tourism industry associations and environmental protection organizations, to explore the impact of multi-stakeholder interaction on policy performance and institutional change.