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Article

Addressing Water Scarcity and Climate Risks: Sustainable Solutions for Al Kharj, Saudi Arabia

by
Arul Vellaiyan
1,
Usha Rekha Chinthapalli
2,* and
Sasidhar Bandu
3
1
College of Nursing, Prince Sattam Bin Abdulaziz University, Al Kharj 16273, Saudi Arabia
2
Department of Management, Swarna Bharathi Institute of Science and Technology, Jawaharlal Nehru Technological University Hyderabad, Hyderabad 507002, India
3
Department of English, Admissions and Registrations Deanship, Prince Sattam Bin Abdulaziz University, Al Kharj 16278, Saudi Arabia
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Sustainability 2025, 17(20), 9273; https://doi.org/10.3390/su17209273
Submission received: 19 June 2025 / Revised: 9 August 2025 / Accepted: 22 September 2025 / Published: 19 October 2025
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Abstract

Water scarcity poses a growing challenge in the Al Kharj region of Saudi Arabia, driven by rising water demand, climatic shifts, and unsustainable use of non-renewable resources. This study investigates the key factors contributing to water scarcity and climate vulnerability using a quantitative approach and Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) on data from 525 respondents. The findings reveal that climate change (β = 0.426), land use changes (β = 0.247), and population growth (β = 0.153) significantly affect water availability, while economic development (β = 0.145) and poor water management practices (β = 0.066) also contribute to the problem. In addition, population growth and climate change were strongly associated with increased climate risks. These insights suggest that water scarcity in Al Kharj is driven by a nexus of ecological, demographic, and institutional pressures. The implications are that effective policy responses, such as improved land use regulation, investment in climate-resilient infrastructure, sustainable water governance frameworks, and public education campaigns, are essential to enhance long-term water security. These findings support the water-related goals of Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 and offer practical strategies for managing climate-adaptive water resources in arid regions.

1. Introduction

Water scarcity is considered to be a common global challenge that affects semi-arid regions and areas with abundant rainfall, often due to poor management and increasing demand. Additionally, it is often linked to both insufficient quantity and poor quality of water, as well as to inadequate water supply systems that fail to meet growing demand or essential quality standards. As a result, Saudi Arabia is one of the world’s most water-scarce countries and depends on water withdrawn from non-renewable and fossil reservoirs to meet its demands [1,2]. Consequently, between the Sixth and Ninth Development Plans, Saudi Arabia’s water supply dropped from 20.74 billion cubic metres to 16.31 billion cubic metres [3]. Saudi Arabia experiences a severe imbalance between water supply and demand, largely driven by the lack of accessible surface water resources and a key factor contributing to ongoing water management challenges [4]. Similar to other nations situated in dry regions, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) faces the challenge of scarce water supplies and restricted sustainable water supplies [5]. Since the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia lacks freshwater rivers or lakes, it is mostly dependent on aquifers and desalination of seawater to meet its needs for agriculture and consumption. Groundwater is the primary source of both irrigation and drinking water in the Al-Kharj governorate, which is located in a large low-lying territory (wadi) in the middle of the KSA [6]. The Kingdom has seen prolonged droughts, reduced precipitation, and a growing threat from warming temperatures in recent decades. These factors have caused water bodies to dry up and severely degraded environments, which hurt crops and allied operations [7]. For cultural, socioeconomic, and financial considerations, Al Kharj was regarded as the most significant agricultural region in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. It also has the strongest prospects for agricultural growth. In the last few years, there has been a lot of attention focused on growing groundwater-based farming initiatives. The primary reason for the decline of groundwater is the pressure placed on it. Sustainable groundwater administration necessitates a solid grasp of the hydrochemical mechanisms that control groundwater quality. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) designated Saudi Arabia as an “at-risk” country due to the country’s insufficient water supply and the growing water demands of its urban areas, factories, and farming sectors on the country’s finite water supplies [8]. Different Saudi authorities and water specialists issued warnings following the announcement of a World Bank report on the worldwide shortage of water in February 2016. The report suggested that if the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia did not drastically change its farming methods and tackle excessive water use patterns nationwide, it might run out of drinking water completely by 2029 [9]. Saudi Arabia’s water system faces several significant obstacles, such as striking a balance between water and food safety (MEWA, 2017 [10]); the growing water demand from crop production [10,11]; minimal watering efficacy [12]; growing populations and elevated usage of water [13]; the lack of accurate information about the state of groundwater [14]; global warming [15]; water loss through leakage [16]; and the adverse environmental impacts of desalination facilities [17]. However, forecasts for the rainfall indicate that many areas of the Kingdom may have less rainfall [18,19]. It is noteworthy, therefore, that Saudi Arabia experiences infrequent but strong downpour occurrences [20].
Moving with various studies have explored water scarcity and climate impacts in Saudi Arabia at the national level, very few have examined the localized, multidimensional interactions between climate change, population growth, land use, and water governance within [21,22] mid-sized, high-stress regions like Al Kharj. This study contributes to bridging the gap by applying Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) to analyze the combined effects of five key factors—climate change, population growth, economic development, land use, and water management practices—on water availability and climate risks. Moreover, it provides context-specific insights for policymakers, aligning with Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 goals, and offers targeted recommendations that are both empirically grounded and regionally actionable. This integration of methodological rigour with regional relevance marks the study’s key innovation.
This study seeks to investigate an empirical solution to water deficit and climate change vulnerability in Al Kharj, Saudi Arabia, by conducting a survey. Al Kharj was chosen as the focal point for this study due to its critical status as both an agricultural hub and a rapidly urbanizing region in central Saudi Arabia. Further, Al Kharj faces compounded water challenges due to its dependency on non-renewable groundwater sources and the absence of major surface water bodies [23,24]. The region plays a strategic role in national food security and is undergoing intense development pressures, which strain already limited water resources [3]. Despite these challenges, there is a limited amount of empirical research focusing specifically on Al Kharj’s water scarcity dynamics. Most studies address the broader Saudi context in more prominent cities. Therefore, investigating Al Kharj fills a critical research gap and provides valuable insights into water and climate-related vulnerabilities at the regional level, contributing to localized strategies aligned with Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 [25,26].
The broad goal was to assess the extent of water deficit and inadequacy perceived by residents and industries. Further, this defines the main sources and reasons for water deficit. It also attempts to identify the climatic changes affecting Al Kharj with regard to temperature shifts, fluctuations in precipitation, and impacts of extreme weather events on water and agricultural resources. This research seeks to identify measures that are taken to practice the use of water sparingly, recycle it, and apply it wisely in domestic, agricultural, and industrial uses. It also helps capture the level of awareness and perception of the population and other stakeholders in water conservation and climate risks. The study makes policy recommendations that local leaders and decision-makers can use to address water scarcity and climate risks and opportunities for sustainable solutions, infrastructural developments, and involvement of the communities. To effectively address the research objectives, this study adopted a quantitative research methodology utilizing structured surveys. The design allowed for empirical assessment of residents’ and stakeholders’ perceptions related to water scarcity and climate risks in Al Kharj. A purposive sampling technique was employed, selecting respondents with an interest in water conservation. The methodological framework ensured both rigour and relevance in deriving conclusions for sustainable water management policy recommendations.

1.1. Conceptual Framework and Hypothesis Development

1.1.1. Water Scarcity and Climate Risks

The problem of water scarcity involves both the quantity and quality of the water that is readily available. High levels of precipitation that introduce infectious agents as well as additional pollutants into rivers and lakes through runoff and flooding are another way that climate change will exacerbate water scarcity, in addition to increasing temperatures and lengthening droughts that stress water demand and available supplies [15]. Water hygiene thus constitutes a sanitation issue because tainted water in the surroundings is highly hazardous to human health [27]. Naturally, problems with climate change and shortages of water also impact food sources. A lack of water directly hinders food production, and an upward trend in sea level and excessive precipitation boost the risk of contaminants in food and illness [28].

1.1.2. Climate Change

Water resources are also affected by climate change because climate change is defined as a change in temperature and patterns of precipitation or the occurrence of extreme weather events [29]. Thus, in areas like Al Kharj, climate change in the form of higher temperatures and reduced precipitation leads to the scarcity of fresh water. By its nature and impact on the hydrological cycles, IPCC affirms that climate change leads to drastic, prolonged droughts and frequent storms [30]. Thus, these fluctuating climate conditions are rather dangerous for water supply, agriculture, and socio-economic development in the region.

1.1.3. Population Growth

Population growth in most regions increases the consumptive water demand, which in most cases is in short supply [25]. In Al Kharj, people lead to greater demands for water by way of domestic uses, agricultural practices, and industrial processes [12,31]. In this regard, the World Bank underlines that as population pressure rises, the quantities of extracted water sources also rise, and both ground and surface water sources become overexploited [32]. This exploitative use of water can be regarded as a lack of sustainable water use that directly contributes to the exacerbation of the water scarcity crisis and increases the vulnerability of volunteers to climate risks.

1.1.4. Economic Development

As economic development is an indisputable necessity for a higher standard of living, it has to be considered that it affects the use and pollution of water. In Al Kharj, the sectors like agriculture and industry, construction, and manufacturing all require large quantities of water [24]. The scope of economics’ access to water resources is also, in the UNEP view, that economic growth facilitates the taking and polluting of water, which degrades water quality and quantity [33]. However, competition for water between one sector and another results in conflicts and/or worse, water scarcity.

1.1.5. Land Use

Changes in land uses such as urbanization, agricultural production, and deforestation have a broader effect on water. Due to urbanization and cultivation of the area, natural water availability, as well as the renewal of groundwater and surface water, is impacted in Al Kharj [34]. According to the FAO, land use changes lead to soil deterioration, a decrease in infiltration rates, and an increase in runoff as aspects involved in water availability [35]. Moreover, these inadequacies in the use of land can result in pollution of water resources, hence diminishing the supply of clean water.

1.1.6. Water Management Practices

Practical actions for water are important for water sustainability and managing climate hazards. Traditional will probably be insufficient for Al Kharj’s water demand and climate requirements that are being seen at the moment. The GWP promotes the IWRM approaches that are a sustainable development strategy for the use of water resources, which looks at the social, economic, and environmental outcomes. This is important in the improvement of water management as well as the overall reduction in water scarcity through the use of such qualities as the implementation of modern water-saving technologies, improving water recycling, and sustainable utilization of water in agriculture. The Kingdom’s water requirements are met by desalinated saltwater, processed wastewater, sustainable sources of groundwater, and regenerative groundwater and surface water sources [26]. However, the pace at which shallow reservoirs, or sustainable groundwater supplies, are becoming replenished is not keeping up with the pace at which they are being used up; estimates suggest that these reserves of water will run out in less than 50 years at the current pace of removal [36]. According to Gruère et al. [37], ethical water use can guarantee the fair and effective distribution of water resources to provide politically, financially, and ecologically favourable results. To effectively plan and disseminate environmentally friendly water management practices, it is necessary to comprehend the factors that influence their adoption [38]. This will help policymakers and water managers determine the scope of regulatory measures [39].

2. Literature Review

Ziaul & Shuwei [40] emphasized how important ecological sustainability was to achieve the broader goals of equitable growth. Altieri & Nicholls [41] examined how traditional farming was used to mitigate and adjust to global warming. Highlighting on-farm biodiversity, it emphasized how resilient small-scale agricultural systems were to weather-related events and supported contemporary farming systems by integrating traditional agroecological practices, including management of soil, water collection, and biodiversification to boost output, promote ecological responsibility, and lessen the consequences of global warming. These studies collectively emphasize the essential role of ecological practices and traditional knowledge in adapting to climate vulnerabilities, particularly in resource-constrained regions.
Rasul & Sharma [42] explained the difficulties that emerging economies, particularly those in South Asia, face in meeting the rising water and power requirements brought on by climate change, as well as the growing food shortage, and highlighted how these areas were interconnected and called for a coordinated strategy to tackle them. Creutzig et al. [43] focused on the scientific possibilities, innovative options, life-cycle implications, sustainability, and the role that bioenergy plays in stabilizing the environment and offered a thorough examination of the use of bioenergy in mitigating global warming. It emphasized the value of storing and capturing carbon for perpetual reduction as well as the possibilities for bioenergy in the transportation and power industries, and emphasized the necessity of environmentally friendly governance, technology improvements, and regulations to maximize the positive aspects of bioenergy while minimizing negative effects on environments and communities. Clayton et al. [44] explored the influence of cultural, social, and behavioural variables on the understanding of global warming and the support for green policy, provided an in-depth examination of the impact of ecological shifts on people, with a focus on how social psychological research might be utilized to better comprehend and fight global warming, and discussed the mental implications of global warming, the relationship between picture of destination and environmental shift, and the role each person and collective choices play in mitigating and adapting to global warming. While Creutzig et al. [43] highlight technical and environmental innovations, Clayton et al. [44] focus on behavioural and psychological aspects, thereby offering a holistic view of climate responses.
Leal Filho et al. [45] highlighted the patterns of water shortages in Africa, the effects of climate change on important water-based sectors such as agriculture, townships, job opportunities and wellness, dispute and safety, finances, and environments, and the features of intended and unforeseen responses to water shortages in Africa. Pakmehr et al. [46] gathered actual data utilizing the theory of protection motivation regarding farmers’ views of and reactions to the water scarcity brought on by global warming. These findings underscore the critical role of perception, preparedness, and training in effective climate change mitigation strategies.
Haque & Khan [7] offered a thorough examination of the precipitation and temperature patterns for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia over a five-decade period, and used a fixed effect logistic model to calculate the impact of these climate shifts on the main agricultural output. Alotaibi et al. [47] examined how several socioeconomic metrics shaped farmers’ worries and outlined various community-based training programmes that can be implemented for successful adjustment. The association between farmers’ degree of worry and their requirement for developing capacity programmes to address warming temperatures was examined using graded logistic regression analysis. Mataya et al. [48] emphasized that the best strategies for coping with global warming were strengthening capacity through both brief instruction and long-term education that was tailored to the local environment. Almulhim & Abubakar [49] determined the reasons behind the scarcity of water, evaluated the longevity of the current methods for managing the water resources, and created a plan to achieve long-term water conservation in the Middle East city of KSA.
In summary, the reviewed literature reveals a multifaceted understanding of climate risks and water scarcity, highlighting ecological, technological, behavioural, and institutional approaches. These insights emphasize the importance of integrated and context-specific solutions ranging from adaptive agricultural practices to community-based capacity building. This study builds upon such foundational knowledge by empirically investigating how water availability and climate risks interact in Al Kharj, Saudi Arabia, to inform sustainable regional water governance strategies. Furthermore, the present study develops the following hypothesis.

Research Hypothesis

Based on the theoretical concepts (Figure 1), the following hypotheses were proposed,
H1. 
Null Hypothesis: There is no significant water scarcity and climate-related risks in Al Kharj.
Alternative Hypothesis: There is a significant water scarcity and climate-related risks in Al Kharj.
H1a. 
Null Hypothesis: Climate change has no significant impact on the water scarcity problem in Al-Kharj, KSA.
Alternate Hypothesis: Climate change has a significant impact on the water scarcity problem in Al-Kharj, KSA.
H2. 
Null Hypothesis: There is no viable solution in any of the available strategies/plans, such as water management practices and land use, to address the water scarcity and climate risk situation within the Al Kharj region.
Alternate Hypothesis: Sustainable solutions such as water management practices and land use patterns available in the Al-Kharj region address the water scarcity and climate risk situation within the Al-Kharj region.
H3. 
Null Hypothesis: Population growth does not influence the water scarcity and climate risks in Al-Kharj.
Alternative Hypothesis: Population growth significantly influences the water scarcity and climate risks in Al-Kharj.
H4. 
Null Hypothesis: Economic development does not relate to the water scarcity and climate-related risks in Al-Kharj.
Alternative Hypothesis: Economic development is significantly related to water scarcity and climate-related risks in Al-Kharj.

3. Research Methodology

The research design provides an appropriate framework for a study, and a significant decision in the research design process is the choice to be made regarding research approach Sileyew, K.J. [50]. This is inspired by prior works by Kokkinen, L. [51], and also uses structured quantitative methods. This approach produces numerical information that can be transformed into meaningful statistics in order to enumerate the issue statement. In addition to generalizing findings from a broader sample population, it serves to gauge viewpoints, views, and additional specified variables. The quantitative approach, to a lesser degree, looks at and evaluates to make clear the study’s objectives and issues that they are suitable or not. This study utilizes a purposive sampling technique in which an initial response form was circulated to the participants of a water conservation conference programme attended by various stakeholders and also residents of the Alkharj region. Those who were purposively interested in participating in this survey were selected as participants. Overall, the reasoning for this study methodology is primarily derived from descriptive analysis, which uses surveys to attempt to offer a thorough, precise picture of the chain of events and mechanisms. Lastly, we informed all participants that engaging in the investigation was optional and that it was being performed only for study objectives to maintain anonymity. A reputable and extensively used scale was used in this investigation. Likert scales, with five points representing strongly agree and 1 representing strongly disagree, served as the foundation for the entire scale. The questionnaires were circulated to about 600 selected participants, and fully completed answers of about 525 (87.5%) were collected. In the result section, the reliability test and the validity of the study were carried out on all the scales in order to assess the degree of coherence among factors, known as Cronbach’s alpha. The Cronbach’s alpha values obtained for our study were 0.965; hence, it would be easy to establish that our study is very reliable and valid. The Structural Equation Modelling and the techniques involved are one of the most commonly recognized and recent methods, as shown by Yuan et al. [52], and Li et al. [53].
The study investigates the influence of climate change, population growth, economic development, and mitigation strategies on water scarcity and climate-related risks in Al-Kharj. Based on the research hypotheses, the following econometric model is specified:
WSCR = β0 + β1CC + β2WM + β3POP + β4ECO + ϵ
where
  • WSCR: Water Scarcity and Climate-related Risk index (dependent variable)
  • CC: Climate change indicators
  • WM: Water management and land use strategy effectiveness
  • POP: Population growth rate
  • ECO: Economic development indicator
  • ϵ\epsilonϵ: Error term
This model will be estimated using multiple linear regression to test the significance and direction of each independent variable’s impact on water scarcity and climate-related risks. Further, Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) was selected as the primary analytical tool because it allows for the simultaneous analysis of multiple dependent and independent variables and effectively captures complex relationships between latent constructs and observed variables. SEM is particularly suited for exploratory and confirmatory research where model fit, variable interdependencies, and mediation effects are assessed in a cohesive statistical framework. This method was applied using AMOS software (2023), and model adequacy was ensured by evaluating goodness-of-fit indices such as CFI, TLI, RMSEA, and chi-square/df. A Cronbach’s alpha value of 0.965 was obtained for the overall scale, which signifies excellent internal consistency and reliability of the questionnaire items.

4. Results

4.1. Socio-Demographic Characteristics

Table 1 reveals the socio-demographic characteristics of participants tested for frequency percentage, variance, skewness, kurtosis, and their significance. The participants are quite evenly distributed by age into three categories: participants under 25 years—30.9%, 26–35 years—31.2%, and 36–45 years—29.0%. Participants over 45 years have a much smaller percentage in this sample—9.0%. This brings the age variance to 0.932, showing that there is moderate variability in age inside the sample. The skewness is 0.275, suggesting a slight rightward skew, while the kurtosis of −1.001 indicates a relatively flat distribution. The t-value of 51.25 *** suggests significant differences within the age groups. Gender distribution reveals a higher proportion of males (67.8%) compared to females (32.2%). The variance for gender is 0.219, with a skewness of 0.765, indicating a slight rightward skew, and a kurtosis of −1.421, suggesting a flatter distribution. The t-value of 64.77 *** indicates significant gender-based differences. Regarding occupation, farmers constitute the largest group (32.0%), followed by residents (28.8%), students (23.4%), business owners (8.4%), and government officials (7.4%). The variance is 2.452, suggesting considerable variability. The skewness of 0.502 points to a rightward skew, while the kurtosis of −1.327 indicates a flatter distribution. The t-value of 38.40 *** signifies significant differences among occupational groups. Education levels show a majority of participants having a high school diploma (39.0%) or a bachelor’s degree (39.2%). Those with a master’s degree constitute 9.9%, while 11.8% have no formal education. The variance is 0.961, with a skewness of 0.868, indicating a rightward skew, and a kurtosis of −0.227, showing a nearly normal distribution. The t-value of 45.46 *** indicates significant differences in educational attainment. Years of residence in Al Kharj are distributed with 11.0% of participants having lived there for less than a year, 11.6% for 1 to 5 years, 41.5% for 6 to 10 years, and 35.8% for over 10 years. The variance is 0.917, indicating moderate variability, with a skewness of −0.800 (leftward skew) and a kurtosis of −0.251 (flatter distribution). The t-value of 72.26 *** shows significant differences in the length of residence. Income levels indicate that 42.3% of participants have below-average income, 41.7% have average income, and 16.0% have above-average income. The variance is 0.515, with a skewness of 0.437 (rightward skew) and a kurtosis of −0.976 (flatter distribution). The t-value of 55.48 *** suggests significant income-based differences. Daily household water usage is categorized as follows: 13.7% use less than 100 L, 40.6% use 100–200 L, 34.7% use 200–300 L, and 11.0% use more than 300 L. The variance is 0.742, with a skewness of 0.090 (almost symmetrical) and a kurtosis of −0.632 (flatter distribution). The t-value of 64.66 *** indicates significant differences in water usage. Perception of water scarcity reveals that 9.3% see it as not a problem, 41.5% have mild concern, 37.9% have moderate concern, and 11.2% have significant concern. The variance is 0.663, with a skewness of 0.073 (almost symmetrical) and a kurtosis of −0.503 (flatter distribution). The t-value of 70.67 *** indicates significant differences in perception. Awareness levels show that 37.5% are very aware, 42.9% are somewhat aware, and 19.6% are not aware at all. The variance is 0.540, with a skewness of 0.295 (rightward skew) and a kurtosis of −1.108 (flatter distribution). The t-value of 56.76 *** indicates significant awareness differences. Participation in water conservation efforts shows that 11.6% actively participate, 42.1% occasionally participate, 36.6% rarely participate, and 9.7% do not participate. The variance is 0.675, with a skewness of 0.077 (almost symmetrical) and a kurtosis of −0.511 (flatter distribution). The t-value of 68.16 *** indicates significant differences in participation levels. T-values marked with “**” indicate statistical significance at the 0.001 level (p < 0.001).*
In summary, the socio-demographic profile of respondents reveals insights directly tied to water-related challenges in Al Kharj. A significant portion of participants (42.3%) belong to below-average income groups, which may impact their ability to adopt sustainable water practices. Moreover, 75.3% of respondents reported daily household water usage ranging from 100 to 300 L, with only 13.7% using less than 100 L, suggesting substantial pressure on local water supply systems. Concerning water scarcity, 90.7% of participants acknowledged it as a concern (mild to significant), indicating strong community awareness of the issue. In terms of conservation awareness, 80.4% of respondents were at least somewhat aware of water-saving measures, yet only 11.6% reported actively participating in conservation efforts. This gap between awareness and active participation underlines the need for enhanced community engagement and targeted educational campaigns. These findings contextualize the necessity for localized strategies to raise awareness and empower behavioural change, particularly in water-stressed communities.

4.2. Factors Assessed and the Survey Responses

Each factor received high mean scores, indicating their perceived importance in addressing water scarcity and climate risks in the region (Table 2). The high t-values (all significantly above 100 with *** indicating statistical significance) suggest strong consensus among respondents regarding these factors. The latent variable Climate change (CC) is measured by six observed variables (CC1, CC2, CC3, CC4, CC5, and CC6) with factor loadings ranging from 0.63 to 0.68, indicating a moderate to high influence of each indicator on the latent construct (Figure 2). The latent variable population growth (PG) is measured by six observed variables (PG1, PG2, PG3, PG4, PG5, and PG6) with factor loadings ranging from 0.63 to 0.67, showing a consistent and significant contribution of these indicators to the construct. The latent variable Economic development (ED) is measured by six observed variables (ED1, ED2, ED3, ED4, ED5, and ED6) with factor loadings between 0.61 and 0.66, suggesting a notable impact of these economic factors on the construct. The variable land use (LU) is explained by its six indicators/LU1, LU2, LU3, LU4, LU5, and LU6, along with their factor loadings ranging from 0 62 to 0 67. Thus, the use of land can be seen as a critical facet that needs to be accounted for in the analysis process to obtain accurate results. Thus, water management practice can be considered as a latent variable, which is manifested through six observed variables, namely WMP1, WMP2, WMP3, WMP4, WMP5, and WMP6, with the factor loadings ranging from 0. 65 to 0.68, meaning that the majority of these indicators have a strong association with the construct. The latent variable water availability (WA) is influenced by all five independent variables with the following path coefficients: CC (0.31), PG (0.34), ED (0.28), LU (0.32), and WMP (0.35) Also, by indicating for what purpose each of the organizational databases was designed together with the user responsible for its administration, it became clear that WMP database was the most optimized in terms of data usage and management. The six items forming the WA construct are WA1, WA2, WA3, WA4, WA5, and WA6, which have loadings greater than 0 76 and 0. Thus, the impact of these indicators on the formation of the potential total supply can be characterized as significant, amounting to 82, indicating a rather high degree of influence of these factors on the latent variable. The latent variable climate risk (CR) is also influenced by all five independent variables with the following path coefficients: CC (0.29), PG (0.33), ED (0.26; LU (0.30) and WMP (0.32). The CR construct is measured by six observed variables (CR1, CR2, CR3, CR4, CR5, and CR6) with factor loadings ranging from 0.78 to 0.83, indicating a high degree of representation of these indicators (Figure 2). The findings strongly support the alternative hypothesis for hypothesis H1 regarding significant water scarcity and climate-related risks in Al Kharj, Saudi Arabia.

4.3. Impact of Climate Change on the Water Scarcity Problem

The regression analysis in Table 3 demonstrates a statistically significant and moderately strong positive relationship between climate change and water availability (β = 0.426, p < 0.001), indicating that climate change substantially contributes to water scarcity in Al Kharj. The high critical ratio (C.R. = 10.277) reflects the robustness of this finding, suggesting that the effects of climate change are merely environmental and socio-economic, as declining water availability poses risks to agricultural productivity, food security, and urban sustainability. Hence, climate adaptation strategies such as investing in resilient infrastructure, promoting climate-smart agriculture, and improving early warning systems are considered for safeguarding water resources in Al Kharj. These findings lend strong support to rejecting the null hypothesis (H1a) and confirm that climate change is a significant and urgent determinant in the regional water scarcity equation.

4.4. Influence of Water Management Practices and Land Use Patterns on Water Availability and Climate Risks

Table 4 presents the regression outcomes assessing the influence of water management practices and land use patterns on water availability and climate risks. The path coefficient for water management practices on water availability (β = 0.066, p = 0.002) is statistically significant. Conversely, the influence of land use on water availability is stronger (β = 0.247, p < 0.001), highlighting the critical role of urban planning, agricultural zoning, and vegetation management in maintaining and replenishing regional water resources. In terms of climate risks, both predictors show significant effects: water management practices (β = 0.19, p = 0.003) and land use (β = 0.11, p = 0.009). This finding suggests that poor land governance, such as deforestation, soil sealing, and improper irrigation, exacerbates the impacts of extreme weather events and longer-term climatic shifts. Similarly, ineffective water management systems increase a region’s vulnerability to floods, droughts, and water-borne disease outbreaks. Overall, these findings support the rejection of the null hypothesis (H2), affirming that sustainable practices in both water governance and land use planning are essential for mitigating water scarcity and climate risks. These insights advocate for integrated water–land policies, where infrastructure, regulatory frameworks, and education efforts are synchronized to promote resilience in arid environments such as Al Kharj.

4.5. Impact of Population Growth on Water Availability and Climate Risks

Table 5 illustrates the significant influence of population growth on both water availability and climate risks in the Al Kharj region. The path coefficient from population growth to water availability is 0.153 (p < 0.001), suggesting a moderate positive relationship wherein increases in population directly intensify pressure on already strained water resources. The relationship between population growth and climate risks is even stronger with a higher path coefficient of 0.263 (p < 0.001), indicating a substantial effect. Larger populations, especially in inadequately planned urban zones, often face amplified exposure to infrastructure failure, sanitation issues, and disaster risk, which intensify under changing climatic conditions. These results provide robust evidence to reject the null hypothesis (H3), affirming that population growth significantly contributes to both water scarcity and climate-related risks in Al Kharj. The findings also reinforce the need for integrated urban planning, population regulation strategies, and sustainable infrastructure development.

4.6. Impact of Economic Development on Water Availability and Climate Risks

Table 6 demonstrates that economic development significantly affects both water availability (β = 0.145, p < 0.001) and climate risks (β = 0.18, p < 0.001) in the Al Kharj region. These results confirm that while economic growth is essential for improved standards of living and regional advancement, it also imposes notable environmental costs, particularly in water-stressed and ecologically sensitive areas. The positive path coefficient (0.145) linking economic development to water availability indicates that economic activities. Moreover, the slightly higher coefficient (0.18) for climate risks suggests that economic development exacerbates vulnerability by accelerating land use changes, increasing emissions, and placing additional stress on ecosystems. These findings lead to the rejection of the null hypothesis for H4 and lend strong support to the alternative, establishing that economic development plays a significant dual role in intensifying both water scarcity and climate vulnerability. To mitigate these effects, a shift toward sustainable economic planning is essential. Furthermore, these efforts help balance development needs with environmental protection and long-term water security in Al Kharj.

5. Discussion

The discussion section of the manuscript provides a broad and detailed overview of the factors influencing water scarcity and climate risks in Al Kharj, Saudi Arabia, concerning numerous supporting studies. However, it demonstrates an admirable effort to incorporate literature, methodology, and regional context. The section covers climate change, population growth, economic development, land use, and water management. Moreover, Haque & Khan [7] and DeNicola et al. [15], in the context of climate change, deeply connect those findings to the empirical path coefficient of 0.426 derived from the current study. Similarly, while population growth and its implications are discussed at length with citations such as Awadh et al. [25], there is minimal interpretation of the statistical relationships found in this research, such as the β = 0.263 coefficient linking population growth to climate risk.
In contrast, substantially more analytical, with the component structured around the core factors: climate change, population growth, economic development, land use, and water management. Each factor is tied directly to its empirical coefficient from the results section, which was a critical concern highlighted by the reviewer. By foregrounding the numerical findings, such as climate change’s impact on water availability (β = 0.426) and population growth’s effect on climate risks (β = 0.263), the revised version strengthens the linkage between the statistical analysis and the interpretation of results. This approach validates the conceptual model proposed in the study and reinforces the empirical basis for each claim. Empirical evidence of Alqurashi & Kumar [34] is used to explain the land use impacts on groundwater recharge, directly linking that insight to the path coefficient of 0.247 found in the current analysis.
Moving with the results confirms H1a, showing that climate change exerts the most significant impact on water availability (β = 0.426, p < 0.001). This aligns with the findings of DeNicola et al. [15] and Hussain et al. [30], reinforcing the evidence that rising temperatures, reduced precipitation, and erratic weather patterns are diminishing freshwater sources and increasing agricultural strain in arid zones like Al Kharj. Moreover, climate change also contributes significantly to climate risk (β = 0.29), reflecting heightened exposure to floods, droughts, and public health threats.
The study also validates H2, demonstrating that land use changes (β = 0.247 for water availability, β = 0.11 for climate risks) and water management practices (β = 0.066 and β = 0.19, respectively) significantly influence water stress and risk exposure. These results underscore how unregulated urban expansion and inefficient irrigation systems degrade recharge capacity and amplify surface runoff, a view supported by Alqurashi & Kumar [34]. Similarly, suboptimal water governance, particularly reliance on desalination and poor recycling infrastructure, continues to underperform in meeting growing demand [26,54].
Population growth, as posited in H3, is also a key contributor to both water scarcity (β = 0.153) and climate risks (β = 0.263), revealing that demographic pressure intensifies resource extraction and increases human vulnerability to climatic shocks. The stronger association with climate risks reflects the socio-economic sensitivity of growing populations in water-stressed urban zones, reinforcing arguments from Awadh et al. [15]. Furthermore, the findings support H4, which states that economic development is significantly associated with both water scarcity (β = 0.145) and climate risks (β = 0.18). As economic activity expands, particularly in agriculture, manufacturing, and construction, it accelerates water withdrawal and land conversion, which in turn increases ecosystem fragility. This is consistent with the dual-role argument presented by Dinar & Tsur [33], where economic gains often entail environmental costs if not properly regulated. Collectively, the findings confirm all proposed hypotheses and also validate the conceptual model linking structural determinants to water stress outcomes. More importantly, it delivers policy-relevant insights for stakeholders in line with Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, [55].

6. Conclusion

6.1. Summary of Key Findings

This study focuses on water insecurity and climatic risks, with the research context situated in Al Kharj, Saudi Arabia. The method employed in this study is quantitative. It focuses on the key issues of water scarcity and climate risks, and how these affect the area’s social, economic, agricultural, and environmental sectors. Thus, a total of 525 respondents were asked about their attitudes, knowledge, and experiences regarding water-saving and climate change measures in Al Kharj. Al-Kharj was the area of interest for this study, where elements of water shortage and climate risks were analyzed with the help of structural equation modelling. Hypotheses tested were as follows: Climate Change (H1a), Population Growth (H3), Economic Development (H4), Land Use (H2), and Water Management Practices (H2) on Water Availability and Climate Risks. Exploratory findings are rather aligned with such hypotheses, proving that these components play a key role in aggravating water deficit and climate change threats in the specified area of Table 7.
The research we have conducted has shown that such factors, in the study concludes that climate change, rapid population growth, unregulated economic expansion, and unplanned land use changes, are central contributors to water scarcity and climate vulnerability in Al Kharj. Additionally, specific parameters such as inefficient irrigation techniques, over-reliance on groundwater, poor infrastructure for water recycling, institutional governance gaps, and limited public participation in conservation efforts further exacerbate the situation. These interlinked pressures underscore the need for integrated policy interventions combining climate adaptation, smart urban planning, and community-based water governance.

6.2. Practical Implications

The availability of water in arid regions has been found to depend on changing climatic conditions, characterized by higher temperatures as well as precipitation patterns that have changed almost beyond recognition. At the same time, population increase only adds to the already existing pressure on scarce resources, as far as water scarcity is concerned. In addition, land use changes and the associated economic activities contribute to water pollution and reduced groundwater recharge, hence underlining the requirement for sustainability. Effective water management practices that mitigate these challenges are going to be very vital, while an adaptive strategy and targeted capacity-building programmes are cornerstones of long-term conservation of water and mitigation of climate risk.
Furthermore, policymakers and planners in the Al-Kharj region recognize the significant impact of climate change and population growth on water scarcity; there is a pressing need for integrated climate-resilient urban planning. Authorities prioritize investments in sustainable water infrastructure, promote water reuse and conservation technologies, and enhance institutional capacity for climate monitoring and early warning systems. Moreover, regulating land use to prevent overexploitation of groundwater resources is essential. Encouraging community engagement in water-saving practices and awareness programmes can also foster long-term water sustainability.

6.3. Limitations and Future Research

While this study provides important insights into the relationship between climate change, population growth, land use, economic development, and water scarcity in Al-Kharj, it is not without limitations. First, the study relies heavily on cross-sectional data, which limits the ability to assess changes and trends over time. Longitudinal data allow for more robust causal inferences regarding the long-term impacts of climate change and socio-economic growth on water availability. Second, this study was conducted at a regional level and may not fully reflect national or global dynamics. Future studies need to benefit from multi-regional comparisons or spatial analysis using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to visualize vulnerability zones. Lastly, the study is largely quantitative. Incorporating qualitative data, such as interviews with policymakers, water resource managers, and local community members, could provide a deeper understanding of behavioural responses and institutional constraints in water management and climate adaptation. Future research should consider mixed-method approaches, incorporate longitudinal and spatial data, and explore adaptive capacity-building strategies across sectors. Expanding the geographic scope to include other water-stressed regions within the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia or across the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries would also improve the generalizability of the findings.

Author Contributions

Methodology, A.V., U.R.C. and S.B.; Resources, A.V., U.R.C. and S.B.; Writing—original draft, A.V., U.R.C. and S.B.; Writing—review & editing, A.V., U.R.C. and S.B.; Supervision, A.V., U.R.C. and S.B. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

Funding

This research was funded by Prince Sattam Bin Abdulaziz University, Alkharj, KSA. grant number PSAU/2024/02/28566 and The APC was funded by Prince Sattam Bin Abdulaziz University, Alkharj, KSA. Information regarding the funder and the funding number should be provided.

Institutional Review Board Statement

The study was approved by the department’s ethics committee and declared that the study proposal had been approved according to ethical guidelines for biomedical research of human participation by the Department of OBG & Pediatric Nursing (protocol code PSAU/2024/02/28566 and 20 May 2024).

Informed Consent Statement

Informed consent was obtained from all subjects involved in the study.

Data Availability Statement

All the data is collected from the simulation reports of the software and tools used by the authors. Authors are working on implementing the same using real world data with appropriate permissions.

Acknowledgments

The authors extend their appreciation to Prince Sattam bin Abdulaziz University for funding this Research work through the Project number (PSAU/2024/02/28566).

Conflicts of Interest

No conflict of interest among authors.

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Sustainability 17 09273 g001
Figure 1. Conceptual diagram.
Figure 1. Conceptual diagram.
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Figure 2. Confirmatory factor analysis of the study variables. Path coefficients are shown with significance levels: ** indicates p < 0.01, and *** indicates p < 0.001, statistically significant.
Figure 2. Confirmatory factor analysis of the study variables. Path coefficients are shown with significance levels: ** indicates p < 0.01, and *** indicates p < 0.001, statistically significant.
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Table 1. Frequency distribution of socio-demographic characteristics of study participants.
Table 1. Frequency distribution of socio-demographic characteristics of study participants.
Demographic FactorsFrequency %VarianceSkewnessKurtosist
Age<2530.90.9320.275−1.00151.25 ***
26 to 3531.2
36 to 4529.0
>459.0
GenderMale67.80.2190.765−1.42164.77 ***
Female32.2
Occupation/RoleFarmer32.02.4520.502−1.32738.40 ***
Resident28.8
Government official7.4
Business owner8.4
Student23.4
EducationHigh school39.00.9610.868−0.22745.46 ***
Bachelor’s degree39.2
Master’s degree9.9
No formal education11.8
Years of residence in Al-Kharj<1 year11.00.917−0.800−0.25172.26 ***
1 to 5 years11.6
6 to 10 years41.5
>10 years35.8
Income levelBelow average42.30.5150.437−0.97655.48 ***
Average41.7
Above average16.0
Household water usage (daily)<100 L13.70.7420.090−0.63264.66 ***
100–200 L40.6
200–300 L34.7
>300 L11.0
Perception of water scarcityNot a problem9.30.6630.073−0.50370.67 ***
Mild concern41.5
Moderate concern37.9
Significant concern11.2
Awareness of water conservation measuresVery aware37.50.5400.295−1.10856.76 ***
Somewhat aware42.9
Not aware at all19.6
Participation in water conservation effortsActively participate11.60.6750.077−0.51168.16 ***
Occasionally participate42.1
Rarely participate36.6
Do not participate9.7
*** p < 0.001, statistically significant.
Table 2. Mean scores and significance.
Table 2. Mean scores and significance.
Factors/VariablesMeant
Water availability (WA)4.04 ± 0.74125.06 ***
Climate risks (CR)3.99 ± 0.73124.67 ***
Climate change (CC)3.97 ± 0.70129.53 ***
Population growth (PG)3.97 ± 0.73124.77 ***
Economic development (ED)3.88 ± 0.74120.86 ***
Land use (LU)3.96 ± 0.74122.61 ***
Water management practices (WMP)3.99 ± 0.74123.59 ***
*** p < 0.001, statistically significant.
Table 3. Regression analysis I.
Table 3. Regression analysis I.
FactorsEstimateS.E.C.R.p
Water availability<---Climate change0.4260.04110.277***
*** p < 0.001, statistically significant.
Table 4. Regression analysis II.
Table 4. Regression analysis II.
FactorsEstimateS.E.C.R.p
Water availability<---Water management practices0.0660.0223.0340.002
Climate risks<---Water management practices0.190.0252.7420.003
Water availability<---Land use0.2470.0366.765***
Climate risks<---Land use0.110.0422.6150.009
*** p < 0.001, statistically significant.
Table 5. Regression analysis III.
Table 5. Regression analysis III.
FactorsEstimateS.E.C.R.p
Water availability<---Population growth0.1530.0374.086***
Climate risks<---Population growth0.2630.0436.106***
*** p < 0.001, statistically significant.
Table 6. Regression analysis IV.
Table 6. Regression analysis IV.
FactorsEstimateS.E.C.R.p
Water availability<---Economic development0.1450.0344.288***
Climate risks<---Economic development0.180.0394.626***
*** p < 0.001, statistically significant.
Table 7. Summary of hypotheses, regression coefficients, and significance levels.
Table 7. Summary of hypotheses, regression coefficients, and significance levels.
HypothesisRelationship TestedPath Coefficient (β)Significance (p-Value)Result
H1aClimate Change → Water Scarcity0.426<0.001Supported
H2Water Management Practices → Water Scarcity0.0660.002Supported
H2Land Use → Water Scarcity0.247<0.001Supported
H2Water Management Practices → Climate Risks0.1900.003Supported
H2Land Use → Climate Risks0.1100.009Supported
H3Population Growth → Water Scarcity0.153<0.001Supported
H3Population Growth → Climate Risks0.263<0.001Supported
H4Economic Development → Water Scarcity0.145<0.001Supported
H4Economic Development → Climate Risks0.180<0.001Supported
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Vellaiyan, A.; Chinthapalli, U.R.; Bandu, S. Addressing Water Scarcity and Climate Risks: Sustainable Solutions for Al Kharj, Saudi Arabia. Sustainability 2025, 17, 9273. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17209273

AMA Style

Vellaiyan A, Chinthapalli UR, Bandu S. Addressing Water Scarcity and Climate Risks: Sustainable Solutions for Al Kharj, Saudi Arabia. Sustainability. 2025; 17(20):9273. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17209273

Chicago/Turabian Style

Vellaiyan, Arul, Usha Rekha Chinthapalli, and Sasidhar Bandu. 2025. "Addressing Water Scarcity and Climate Risks: Sustainable Solutions for Al Kharj, Saudi Arabia" Sustainability 17, no. 20: 9273. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17209273

APA Style

Vellaiyan, A., Chinthapalli, U. R., & Bandu, S. (2025). Addressing Water Scarcity and Climate Risks: Sustainable Solutions for Al Kharj, Saudi Arabia. Sustainability, 17(20), 9273. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17209273

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